Brilliant article, really thought provoking.
However, I sort of feel reading this that historians are guessing more than making accurate predictions, judging by what has happened throughout the years and looking at trends or the ‘cycle’. Predicting 100 events that may happen, 99 won’t but when the 1 does, they’ll be ‘told you so-ing’ the rest of the population. If you’re predicting all these things but getting tens wrong surely that just makes historians guessers more than insightful? How good is getting one thing right, but 99 wrong..?
Either way, great article. I guess a lot of it just seems common sense / knowledge.