Can LeBron Pass Kareem on the All-Time Scoring List?
With 25 points Saturday night, LeBron James passed Hakeem Olajuwon on the all-time points scored list and moved into the top 10 with 26,970 points to date. Now that LeBron has broken into the top ten, it is truly only a matter of time before we can truly see if Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record of 38,387 can stand the tests of time and King James’ durability. Can LeBron catch Kareem’s record? There is very good reason (and mathematics) to believe that he will.
There are several factors that will contribute to LeBron’s ability to reach the top of the scoring list. Obviously, health is the biggest and most important aspect of this type of accomplishment. LeBron has remarkably never experienced a significant injury, and has never missed more than 20 games in a season during his career. Given LeBron’s frame and durable body-type, health should not be a major concern barring a freak-accident type injury.
The Logic
LeBron is currently in his 14th year in the NBA, and has not shown any signs of slowing down. Since the 2004–2005 season, LeBron’s minutes played have decreased every single year. This is not uncommon in the NBA, for coaches and trainers pay very close attention to exposure and minutes logged, especially for big-time stars like LeBron. Although his minutes are slowly decreasing, LeBron has not visibily shown any losses to Father Time. He is currently 32 years old, and is coming off arguably the greatest NBA Finals performance ever. As LeBron has aged, the game has become so easy for him. Considering that LeBron is in his 14th season in the league and still in his prime, there is much reason to think that he is not slowing down any time soon. Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Garnett all recently retired after playing 20 seasons in the NBA. It would be hard to imagine LeBron not surpassing 20 seasons, given any significant injuries or health issues.
The Math
The current amount of points that LeBron needs to score to become the all-time leader is 11,417. Over his career, James has averaged 27.2 ppg. It is obvious that LeBron is not going to average those types of numbers going forward. His point average has been trending downward the last several years, and it is something that he is perfectly fine with given the emergence of Kyrie Irving and other Cavs teammates. Let’s assume that LeBron averages 20 points per game going foward (which is very conservative). With that average, he would need to play in 571 games to pass Kareem. Using another conservative estimate, let’s assume that LeBron plays in 70 games each season going forward, reaches the playoffs and plays in at least 15 games (about 2.5 series) in each of those postseasons. Given those aforementioned numbers, LeBron needs to play in 6.7 more seasons to become the all-time leading scorer. That would put the day he passes Kareem at about March of 2023. The math certainly says that this is possible.
The Opposing Logic
There are also several reasons that some might believe LeBron will not surpass Kareem as the league’s all-time leading scorer. As LeBron drifts from his prime (whenever that may be), he will have to rely more upon his jump shot than his current physically-dominating scoring style. LeBron has had his struggles with jump shots, and only shoots 33% from 3-point historically over his career. As several of aging NBA athletes have done, LeBron may have to change his game to adapt to his decline in athleticism as he ages. But who knows, maybe LeBron will just never age or ever lose his athleticism, a la Benjamin Button.
Considering the logic and math of LeBron’s chances to pass Kareem, it appears that it is very much likely to happen. LeBron’s knowledge, athleticism, and drive are key factors of his ability to climb to the top. It should be fun to watch over the next several years, as his ascend to the top continues.
