Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver (Chapter 1)

• An example of a negative feedback loop is supply and demand, as the price goes up demand goes down in order to keep it stable near the equilibrium point, there’s no bubble
• A positive feedback loop is the opposite, where a bunch of factors keep confirming a bias until it gets blown out of proportion
• Fear and greed are a type of negative feedback loop, sort of like supply and demand, that keep each other in balance
• Precision does not equal accuracy, just because the number is very precise doesn’t mean that this number’s meaning is true or valid
• Risk is a financial dollar amount of uncertainty
• Uncertainty is basically an “unknown unknown” because we don’t know what could go wrong and we can’t quantify it properly