Fall foliage in Alexandria, New Hampshire, on Oct. 19, 2021. Photo: Todd B. Bates/NH EnviroGuy blogger

First Freeze May Finally Arrive Soon in Concord, New Hampshire

The normal first freeze is on Oct. 3 and the latest since 1868 took place on Oct. 25, 1921

The first freeze may finally unfold soon in Concord, New Hampshire, and a 100-year-old record is on the line.

The latest first freeze on record in Concord occurred on Oct. 25, 1921, and the normal first freeze is on Oct. 3, according to the National Weather Service office that covers the Granite State and much of Maine. Records for Concord date back to 1868.

“It’s been a mild fall so far as warm, humid air has frequented New England for several weeks,” the office tweeted. “Our best CHANCE of seeing a first freeze at these locations (Concord and Manchester, New Hampshire, and Portland and Augusta, Maine) will be this weekend into early next week. That could put a place like Concord, NH near their latest date on record.”

Annual average temperatures in New England have increased by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit or more since 1901 and the first fall freeze date is expected to occur later under various climate change scenarios, according to the 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment chapter on the Northeast.

These maps show projected shifts in the date of the last spring freeze (left column) and the date of the first fall freeze (right column) as compared with 1979 to 2008 under lower and higher greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. By the mid-century, the freeze-free period across much of the Northeast is expected to lengthen by up to two weeks under the lower scenario and by two to three weeks under the higher scenario. By the end of the century, the freeze-free period is expected to increase by at least three weeks over most of the region. Source: 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment chapter on the Northeast

Low temperatures in Concord were expected to be around 48 tonight, around 53 Thursday night, around 42 Friday night, around 38 Saturday night, around 35 Sunday night (with patchy frost) and around 34 Monday night (with patchy frost), according to the National Weather Service.

“Monday and/or Tuesday mornings could see widespread freeze or at least
frost conditions for the area, something we are long overdue for
at this stage of the season,” according to a forecast discussion.

You can subscribe to my blog via email: https://medium.com/subscribe/@tbbates16