The track of the devastating New England (aka Long Island Express) Hurricane. The storm accelerated on Sept. 21, 1938, sped forward at 60 to 70 mph and made landfall over Long Island and Connecticut as a Category 3 hurricane. Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts recorded sustained winds of 121 mph, with gusts to 183 mph (likely influenced by terrain). Storm surges of 10 to 12 feet inundated parts of the coast from Long Island and Connecticut to southeastern Massachusetts. Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay had the most notable surges. Heavy rains before and during the storm led to river flooding, most notably along the Connecticut River. The hurricane, which struck with little warning, resulted in 600 deaths and $308 million in damage in the United States. Source: National Hurricane Center
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in New England, With the Chances of Them Coming Within 50 Miles
Just one storm during a mild Atlantic hurricane season can be disastrous in your area, experts have stressed for years.
Just one hurricane or even a tropical storm can cause extreme flooding and damage in low-lying and/or inland areas in New England, the Northeast or elsewhere along the East and Gulf coasts.
Remember Hurricane Andrew 30 years ago? That devastating storm for South Florida arrived during a below-normal season.
Last weekend, Potential Tropical Cyclone One (subsequently Tropical Storm Alex) kicked off the season by dumping tons of rain in South Florida.
Source: National Weather Service Miami office
Since a high-activity era in the Atlantic began in 1995, 19 of 27 seasons (about 70 percent) have been above normal and just four (15 percent) have been below normal, based on 1951 to 2020 climatology, according to the Climate Prediction Center outlook issued on May 24.
The underlying climate factor again this season is the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes. There was also a good chance (58 percent) that La Niña conditions would continue through the hurricane season, the outlook says. La Niña, featuring cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, tends to enhance Atlantic hurricane activity.
“We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the forecast says.
“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” the forecast says.
In the 1985, I became an environmental writer at the Asbury Park Press in New Jersey. My beat included myriad environmental issues in two coastal counties along the vulnerable Jersey Shore — Monmouth and Ocean — along with statewide issues. As a result, I have helped track and/or cover the impact of numerous hurricanes and other tropical cyclones, including Superstorm Sandy in 2012, Irene in 2011, Floyd in 1999 and Gloria in 1985.
Here’s a table (thanks to Colorado State University) with the odds of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes coming within 50 miles of the five coastal New England states and elsewhere. A storm that does not make landfall can still cause major headaches. Many other images covering the 2022 and 2021 Atlantic hurricane seasons and some notable storms in history follow.
The chances of at least one named storm, hurricane and major hurricane (with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph) tracking within 50 miles of coastal states from Texas to Maine, based on NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Probabilities are for 2022, based on the latest Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast, and the 1880 to 2020 climatological average. Source: Colorado State University
Source: National Hurricane Center
Source: National Hurricane Center
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
NS = named storm. H = hurricane. MH = major hurricane. ACE = accumulated cyclone energy. Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
Source: National Centers for Environmental Information
Estimated return period in years for major hurricanes (with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph) passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast. Source: National Hurricane Center
Estimated track of a strong hurricane that reached the Northeast on Sept. 3, 1821. Credit: NOAA’s NWS Weather Prediction Center
The storm tide (the rise in water level from the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide, such as during a full or new moon) during the 1938 hurricane. Source: National Hurricane Center
Wind field associated with the 1938 hurricane. The data is from a GFDL/URI hurricane model simulation used by the National Weather Service since 2001. Source: Dr. Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, and National Weather Service New York office
Source: Weather Prediction Center at the National Weather Service
The raging Merrimack River in Manchester, New Hampshire, after the 1938 hurricane. Source: NOAA
Destruction in Island Park, Rhode Island, following a reportedly 30- to 40-foot high breaking wave during the 1938 hurricane. Source: NOAA
The storm surge during the 1938 hurricane devastated the waterfront at Pawtuxet Cove, Rhode Island. Source: NOAA
Boats strewn among homes in Pawtuxet Cove, Rhode Island, after the 1938 hurricane. Source: NOAA
An oil tank floated to the center of this road as a result of the storm surge in East Providence, Rhode Island. Source: NOAA
Waves crashing in front of the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries building in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, during the 1938 hurricane. Source: NOAA
Flooding following the 1938 hurricane. The force of the water tore out the stone bridge in Ware, Massachusetts. Source: NOAA
Flooding in Hartford, Connecticut, after the 1938 hurricane, with the Music Shell in Bushnell Park serving as a reflecting pool. Source: NOAA
The mid-September 1944 hurricane was Category 3 intensity at landfalls at Cape Hatteras, Long Island and Point Judith, Rhode Island. It was a Category 2 storm as far north as the coast of Maine. While it caused 46 deaths and $100 million in damage in the United States, the worst effects took place at sea. The storm wreaked havoc on World War II shipping. Five ships, including a U. S. Navy destroyer and minesweeper, two U. S. Coast Guard cutters and a light vessel sank, causing 344 deaths. Source: National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Carol made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane over Long Island, New York and Connecticut on Aug. 31, 1954. Sustained winds of 80 to 100 mph were reported over much of eastern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts. A peak gust of 130 mph was reported at Block Island, Rhode Island, while gusts of 100 to 125 mph occurred over much of the rest of the affected area. Storm surge flooding occurred along the New England coast from Long Island northward, with water depths of 8 to 10 feet reported in downtown Providence, Rhode Island. Carol caused 60 deaths and $461 million in damage in the United States. Source: National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Edna made landfall over Cape Cod as a Category 3 hurricane on Sept. 11, 1954. Martha’s Vineyard reported a 120 mph wind gust. Much of the rest of the affected area had gusts of 80 to 100 mph. The storm caused 20 deaths and $40 million in damage in the U.S. Source: National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Donna crossed the New England states (Category 3 on Long Island and Categories 1 to 2 elsewhere) on September 12 and 13, 1960. Block Island, Rhode Island, reported 95 mph sustained winds with gusts to 130 mph. Portions of the New England coast saw 5- to 10-foot storm surges. Source: National Hurricane Center
Source: NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
NH EnviroGuy blogger & photography enthusiast living near Newfound Lake in New Hampshire. Finalist, 2010 Pulitzer Prize in Public Service. Snowy ROC NY native.
