Amidst a summer of trade talks, Onyeka Okongwu primed to breakout for the Atlanta Hawks in 2023–24
The NBA off-season is entering its dead period, the time frame in the dog days of August where an occasional deal happens but nothing substantial goes down. However, it’s been an incredibly busy offseason for several teams, and the Atlanta Hawks are no exception. After a headline-filled season that included a midseason firing of head coach Nate McMillan and replacing him with Quin Snyder, Atlanta entered the off-season with a direct initiative. While keeping most of their core together, their most notable external move was their salary-dump of John Collins to the Utah Jazz. They did agree to a contract extension with Dejounte Murray, allowing them to move forward with the “Dejountrae” backcourt.
With some ammo in last month’s NBA Draft, they considered a trade up the board, but ended up staying out and bolstering their young core with Kobe Bufkin, Mouhamed Gueye, and Seth Lundy. Beyond some basic housekeeping moves and these youth additions, the Hawks will essentially run back much of the same roster that went 41–41 in 2022 and lost in six games to the Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. They’ve been rumored to be in conversations with the Toronto Raptors about two-time All-Star forward Pascal Siakam, but nothing has come to fruition yet.
Beyond the leadership of Trae Young and the expected growth of young pieces in Jalen Johnson and AJ Griffin, the Hawks are optimistic that Onyeka Okongwu will emerge as the team’s most reliable center. On a recent podcast, Brian Windhorst heavily hinted at the Hawks dangling Clint Capela on the trade market. This certainly complements the narrative surrounding Atlanta’s supreme confidence in Okongwu, as they’re clearly looking to trade his only real competition for starting minutes at the center position.
Okongwu, a native of Los Angeles, California, certainly comes with a pedigree that is worthy of the Hawks’ unwavering commitment. After being a four-year starter at Chino Hills alongside Lonzo and LaMelo Ball, Okongwu was a top-20 recruit and decided to play his freshman season at USC under head coach Andy Enfield. After a one-and-done season with the Trojans that saw him earn All-Pac 12 First Team honors, Atlanta drafted him with the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. He has endured his fair share of trials and tribulations in the NBA, battling a foot injury as a rookie and tearing his right shoulder labrum in the summer before his second season. He’s also exclusively been the team’s backup center, behind Capela, when he’s been healthy.
The 6–9 big man emerged as a key contributor for the Hawks in his third season, as he finally stayed healthy and played in 80 of 82 games, the most of any player on the roster. As a backup center, Okongwu averaged 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. His efficiency was top-notch for a young big, as he shot 63.8 percent from the field and 78.1 percent from the charity stripe.
He had some incredible moments throughout his third campaign, including a game against the Indiana Pacers where he scored 18 points and grabbed a career-high 20 rebounds. In the final 15 games of the 2022–23 season, Okongwu’s production took a big leap, as he averaged 12.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, while connecting at a 68.9 percent clip from the field and a 90.7 percent rate from the free-throw line. In NBA history, only five players have ever played 1,800+ minutes, averaged 9+ points, 7+ rebounds, 1+ blocks, and had a true shooting percentage of 67% or higher, before they turned 25 years old. Those players? Jarrett Allen, Rudy Gobert, Nic Claxton, Robert Williams, and Onyeka Okongwu.
That’s pretty good company for a young rim protector to be in, as it certainly shows how absurd Okongwu’s third season was from multiple levels. It also should give fans an idea of why many people in the industry are high on Okongwu to have a breakout fourth season, including me. Okongwu has all the tools and abilities to become the franchise center for the Atlanta Hawks, combining freaky athleticism, a strong frame, high-level rim protection ability, and elite rebounding skills. He plays within his own game, understanding his weaknesses and limitations, but also pushing himself to become a better player in certain areas.
He showcased indelible value as a connective piece amongst the bigger fish in the Atlanta ecosystem. With regards to NBA bench players, some players just aren’t cut out for it, as the inconsistency of the role can cause their play on the court to degrade as time goes on. For Okongwu, this has never been an issue, giving confidence towards his ability to adapt to different situations.
Okongwu’s offensive game is not very complex, but it doesn’t need to be, as he is the perfect plug and play alongside point guard Trae Young. At just 24 years old, Young is already one of the best passers in NBA history, and he excels at creating finishing opportunities for his big men through precise lob passes. Okongwu fits the bill perfectly as a dynamically athletic center who can go up to grab Young’s lobs and turn them into easy buckets. Speaking to his ability as a lob threat and as a cutter in general, Okongwu ranked in the 72nd percentile as a cutter, scoring 1.41 points per possession on these plays.
Aside from their connection on spectacular lob plays, Okongwu has become a staple in the high pick-and-roll offense with Young and the aforementioned Murray. The Hawks often utilize Okongwu as the screener in plays littered with roll-and-cut opportunities. Amongst 30 third-year players who played at least 1,000 minutes, Okongwu generated some of the better opportunities with his screen-setting fluency. He led these players in screen assists per 75 possessions while ranking third in overall screening talent. He routinely comes out as the beneficiary in these situations, scoring 1.27 points per possession as a roll-man.
Simpler statistics also support his abilities as an at-the-rim scorer, as he maintained the fifth-best true shooting percentage in the NBA last season, widely in part because of these close opportunities. He ranked in the 97th percentile in rim shot quality last season while connecting on these looks at a 90th percentile rate. Despite occasionally struggling against longer defenders, Okongwu has maintained an above-average post-up game, ranking in the 97th percentile in stable post-up points per possession. While he isn’t asked to do much work in the post, he does a very good job in these limited opportunities. Currently, Okongwu exhibits an offensive skill set that is typical of most roll-and-cut bigs in the modern NBA, but I’d argue that we’re only scratching the surface of his offensive potential.
In his first two seasons, he rarely even considered taking a shot from outside the paint, but he displayed a more confident and willing stroke in his third year. He shot 38.8 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers (19 for 49), which is higher than I expected, albeit a small sample size. In his career (including the playoffs), he has attempted a total of 18 three-pointers, making just five of them. Throughout the off-season, Okongwu has likely focused on the continual development of his jump shot. I’d venture as far to say that if Okongwu can become a more consistent and willing threat from the perimeter, his offensive game alone would make him one of the best young centers in the entire league.
As mentioned before, Okongwu’s continuous improvement as a scorer inspires hope, but he’s already one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA. In 2022–23, he ranked in the 85th percentile in creating scoring opportunities through the offensive glass, scoring 1.36 points per possession in these situations. Amongst third-year players who played 1,000 minutes, Okongwu ranked first with a 72.4 contested offensive rebound percentage, further emphasizing his ability to consistently grab offensive boards that others cannot. Amongst qualified bench players last season, Okongwu ranked fourth in offensive rebounds and fifth in offensive-rebound percentage.
Despite playing on a below-average defensive unit (Atlanta was the ninth-worst defense in the NBA), Okongwu put up tremendous advanced defensive numbers in his third season. He’s a versatile big who can thrive in a variety of different defensive schemes, but he emerged as one of the elite rim protectors in the league this past season. Amongst players with at least 1,800 minutes, Okongwu finished fourth in block rate, tallying 2.8 blocks per 100 possessions. He contested a whopping 38.7 percent of shots at the rim, while holding opponents who challenged him to a 48.4 percent clip from the field.
Okongwu’s defensive identity goes far beyond his ability to simply protect the rim, as he ranked in the 100th percentile in post defense last year. He also is very active and vocal on the defensive end of the floor, using his frame to help out his teammates and maintaining a high activity level. He’s more than capable of holding his own when it comes to switching onto the perimeter in high ball screen situations. Last year, he ranked in the 90th percentile in screener rim defense and the 89th percentile in screener mobile defense, indicating a versatile makeup that allows him to be a multi-dimensional defender.
It might surprise some Hawks’ fans, but Okongwu actually played at his best when he was paired alongside Saddiq Bey and Bogdan Bogdanovic. This three-man lineup was the best combination for the Hawks last season, as they had a plus-17 NETRTG in 270 minutes on the floor. Atlanta’s four-best three-man lineup combinations all feature Okongwu, further emphasizing his value on the court. He should also benefit from the departure of John Collins, as those two had a negative 1.3 NETRTG in 673 minutes on the floor together.
If Okongwu can continue to impact the game at a high level as a defender, which we have every reason to believe he can, he could compete for a spot on the All-Defensive team next season with more minutes. It’s important to remember that he was a one-and-done college player, and he’ll be turning 23-years old in December, so he’s still young for a fourth-year player. In reality, his floor is incredibly promising for a young center, giving Atlanta hope that he can continue on his path of development for their long-term plans.