A post-election analysis of Kentucky

Like many of you, when I first woke up on Wednesday morning after election day I was still feeling disappointed in the results. While it was a great night for Democrats across the country, it seemed to many that the Blue Wave so many had predicted had just simply missed Kentucky.

But as I’ve stressed through the last year — we need to make our campaign decisions in Kentucky based on the underlying data and what the numbers tell us, not just based on a feeling in our gut. So, our team began digging into the results from the election. And when they did, we found that the results were not quite what they seemed at first glance.

In addition to the historic changes in Kentucky (most women ever in the state Legislature, first Indian-American woman in the State House), the data tells quite a different story than the headlines. Yes, we didn’t make as many gains as we had hoped in Kentucky. But was that simply because we allowed ourselves to be caught up in the headlines rather than truly understanding how deep of a hole we were in in 2016? And yes, Lt. Col. Amy McGrath inspired us all with her campaign based on issues and value and hope — and we thought for sure that would win out. But this was a Trump +15 district that McGrath got within 3 points of winning — an amazing shift for anyone to accomplish.

As I’ve been reading the reactions to the election online over the past week, it was clear that many of our supporters — from our grassroots to our party leaders — still didn’t see the progress that has been made in Kentucky. So, we decided to share some of the analysis not just with the press, but also with all of our supporters. It’s a deep dive into the election results, and when I read it, I gain a lot of hope for Democrats in Kentucky.

There were a lot of people responsible for this election — and the credit belongs to all of them. From our amazing candidates who both won and lost, our elected officials and ex-electeds who worked all across the state, to our County Parties and their executive committees, to the state central executive committee and leadership (including our amazing Vice Chair, Cassie Armstrong), to the campaign workers who worked around the clock, to the countless grassroots, labor, and professional groups that contributed — you should all be proud of the work you did.

As we begin to turn our attention to 2019, I know we have an amazing group of candidates who are going to step up and put their names forward to run to make Kentucky a better place. If there’s one thing this election has shown me, it is that when we clearly state our Democratic Values, champion the working class, and provide a vision of hope for our state and our country, voters stand with us. So — I hope you’ll join me in encouraging them all to not just run on what they’re not, but also on what they are — because there are amazing Democrats with a hopeful vision for Kentucky all across the state.

It is an honor to continue to work with you to make Kentucky, and our country, a better place.

-Ben

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TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Ben Self, Chair, Kentucky Democratic Party

RE: Post Election Update

DATE: November 13, 2018

As Kentucky Democrats approached Election Day it was clear that energy was on our side. However, a looming question remained: Was 2016 the new normal, or could Democrats overcome structural disadvantages and make gains in Trump Territory?

Also unclear was how voter turnout, the “Trump Factor,” the teacher movement and women could affect the overall outcome of this election cycle. As mentioned in my previous memo, Kentucky Democrats started the 2018 cycle with a tough playing field.

As results came in across the commonwealth, Democrats realized there wouldn’t be a sweep, as many hoped. The narrow loss in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District was certainly disappointing. But now that we’ve had time to analyze the results, it’s clear Kentucky Democrats performed better than reported in most of the early news stories, and that 2016 is not the new normal. Kentucky Democrats have reason to be optimistic about 2019 and 2020.

A few highlights:

• In the “Year of the Women,” more women filed to run for state legislative office than ever before. As a result, the highest number of Democratic women will be now serve in our State House: 18. In comparison, in 2016, 9 Democratic women were elected to the State House.
• In 2018, Kentucky Democrats were 8,983 votes away from controlling the State House. In 2016 that number was 19,856.
• The Republican State House popular vote margin decreased by an astonishing 67% — moving from R+20 to R+8.
• KY-06 swung from a Trump +15 district (Barr +22) to a Barr +3. Only one congressional district nationwide that was more than Trump +10 switched from R to D — (SC-01, which was an open seat).

THE 2018 PLAYING FIELD: STRUCTURAL DISADVANTAGES FOR DEMOCRATS

Heading into Election Day it was clear that 11 retirements — five in rural areas — would make the 2018 cycle challenging for Kentucky Democrats to gain ground. But Kentucky Democrats faced formidable structural disadvantages beyond just a large playing field.

In 2018, Kentucky Republicans had to defend just a single seat (Phil Moffett HD-32) in a State House district that voted Democratic in the 2016 Presidential race. Zero State Senate seats held by Republicans in 2018 voted Democratic in 2016.

In contrast, Kentucky Democrats had to defend 15 incumbent/open seats won by Trump in 2016, many of them in districts where Trump won by more than 20 points. In the State Senate, Kentucky Democrats had to defend two seats won by Trump in 2016 by more than 40 points.

Kentucky Democrats had to battle almost exclusively in deep Trump territory to hold seats and make gains, and they had to do it with a substantial funding gap.

DEMOCRATIC PERFORMANCE: 2018 VS 2016

Despite the challenging environment, Kentucky Democrats flipped 8 house seats and drastically increased performance this election cycle, compared to 2016. It is exceptionally rare for the popular vote in a midterm to exceed the popular vote in a presidential election; however, total Democratic votes for State House races actually increased from 2016 to 2018.

In 2018, Kentucky Democrats were 8,983 votes away from controlling the State House. In 2016 that number was 19,856.

Democrats also had 58 races across the state with better margins than 2016. In Trump territory, Kentucky Democrats successfully defended nine State House seats, flipped seven State House seats, and held a State Senate seat — proving that Democrats are not just limited to success in the major metropolitan areas.

Here are the highlights:

Eastern Kentucky: Three seats flipped Red to Blue.

• House District 91: A re-match between Cluster Howard and Toby Herald. In 2016 Trump won the district by 51 points. The district moved from R+10 in 2016 to a Democratic win in 2018.
• House District 95: Ashley Tackett Laferty defeated incumbent Larry Brown by 15 points in this decisive victory. In 2016 Trump won the district by 47 pts. Laferty ran a spirited campaign and moved the district 21 points from R+6 in 2016 to D+15 in 2018.
• House District 96: Solid Republican district where a first-time candidate, and teacher, Kathy Hinkle defeated Incumbent Jill York who has represented the district since 2009. York won this district by 11 points in 2014. Trump won this district by 52 points in 2016. Hinkle ran a great campaign and moved the district from R+16 in 2016 to a Democratic win in 2018.
• Senate District 18: Incumbent Robin Webb had to defend a seat targeted heavily by Republicans in a district that went for Trump by 44 points in 2016. Webb ran a seasoned and focused campaign to win re-election by 16 points with 58% of the vote.

Western Kentucky: Three major wins including 2 flipped Red to Blue.

• House District 11: This was an open seat, previously held by Robby Mills, in far western Kentucky. Trump won the district by 21 points in 2016. The district moved 11 points from R+3 in 2016 to D+8 in 2018.
• House District 13: This was a rematch between Jim Glenn and DJ Johnson. Trump won the district by eight points in 2016. This was the closest race of the election with Jim Glenn winning by just a single vote.
• House District 20: This was an open seat previously held by Jody Richards, and heavily targeted by Republicans in western Kentucky. Clinton won the district by five points in 2016. First-time candidate Patty Minter ran a great campaign outperforming Clinton’s 2016 showing to win the race by seven points in 2018.

Lexington and Louisville: Three seats flipped Red to Blue.

• House District 32: This was a solid Republican seat held by Phil Moffett since 2014. The seat was previously held by Republican Julie Raque Adams from 2010–2014, and by Republican Scott Brinkman from 2001–2010. Clinton won the district by five points in 2016. Teacher, and first-time candidate, Dr. Tina Bojanowski ran a great race and outperformed Clinton’s 2016 showing to move the district 13 points from R+6 in 2016 to D+7 in 2018.
• House District 48: This was a solid Republican district and a rematch between Ken Fleming and Maria Sorolis. Trump won the district by three points in 2016. Sorolis ran a great race and this district move 15 points from R+14 in 2016 to D+1 in 2018.
• House District 88: This was an open seat previously held by Republican incumbent Robert Benvenuti who ran unopposed in 2016 and won the district by 36 points in 2014. Trump won the district by two points in 2016. Cherlynn Stevenson ran a great race in a highly contested seat to flip this Red to Blue in 2018.

REPUBLICAN PERFORMANCE: 2018 VS 2016

Republicans experienced a drastic drop-off in 2018 compared to performance in 2016. They were unable to wage a competitive race in any districts that voted Democratic in the 2016 Presidential race, and lost ground in many solid Republican districts. The margin for control of the State House decreased by 56% in 2018, and the Republican State House popular vote margin decreased by an astonishing 67% — moving from R+20 to R+8.

Notably, Republican performance dropped by at least 12 points in eight solid Republican State House races, and underperformed in 33% (5 of 15) of their State Senate races in solid Republican districts from 2016 to 2018:

• House District 5: This was an open seat, previously held by Kenny Imes, in solid Republican territory turned deep red in 2016 in far western Kentucky. Trump won the district by 33 points in 2016. The district moved -22 points from R+38 in 2016 to R+16 in 2018.
• House District 19: Solid red Republican seat in western Kentucky held by Michael Meredith. Trump won the district by 35 points in 2016. The district moved -15 points from R+38 in 2016 to R+23 in 2018.
• House District 25: Republican seat held by Jim DuPlessis since 2014 turned deep red in 2016. Trump won the district by 30 points in 2016. The district moved -27 points from R+45 in 2016 to R+18 in 2018.
• House District 45: Solid Republican district held by long-time incumbent Stan Lee who outperformed Trump by 17 points in 2016 to win re-election. Trump won the district by four points. Lee underperformed Trump in 2018 in a narrow loss against a first-time candidate, Josh Hicks, who moved the district -19 points from R+21 in 2016 to R+2 in 2018.
• House District 50: Solid Republican seat turned deep red in 2016 held by long-time incumbent Chad McCoy. Trump won the district by 29 points in 2016. The district moved -16 points from R+27 in 2016 to R+11 in 2018. McCoy underperformed Trump by 18 points.
• House District 55: Deep red Republican district held by Kim King. Trump won the district by 42 points in 2016. The district moved -19 points from R+50 in 2016 to R+31 in 2018. In 2016, King overperformed Trump by 8 points, in 2018 she underperformed Trump by 11 points.
• House District 74: Republican seat held by David Hale. Trump won the district by 40 points in 2016. First-time candidate, James Davis, had a narrow loss in this district and moved the district -12 points from R+15 in 2016 to R+3 in 2018. Hale underperformed Trump by 37 points.
• House District 84: Flipped Republican in 2016 by Chris Fugate. Trump won the district by 60 points. Tom Pope, a former teacher and first-time candidate, moved the district -15 points from R+26 in 2016 to R+11 in 2018. Fugate underperformed Trump by 49 points.
• Senate District 12: Solid Republican seat in Fayette County held by Alice Forgy Kerr faced a tough race against Paula Setser-Kissick. Trump won the district by 32 points in 2016. Setser-Kissick, a teacher and first-time candidate, moved the district -25 points from an R+26 in 2014 to an R+1 in 2018. Forgy Kerr underperformed Trump by 31 points.
• Senate District 24: Solid Republican seat in Northern Kentucky held by Wil Schroder. Trump won the district by 32 points in 2016. First-time candidate, Rachel Roberts, ran an energetic and exciting campaign to move the district -10 points from R+24 in 2014 to R+14 in 2018. Schroder underperformed Trump by 16 points.
• Senate District 32: Solid Republican district in western Kentucky held by Mike Wilson. Trump won the district by 26 points. Teacher, and first-time candidate, Jeannie Smith ran a fantastic race and moved the district -6 points from R+ 10 in 2010 district was only R+4 in 2018. Wilson underperformed Trump by 20 points.
• Senate District 34: Deep red Republican district in central Kentucky held by Jared Carpenter. Trump won the district by 36 points in 2016. The district moved -6 points from R+30 to R+24.
• Senate District 36: Solid red Republican district in Jefferson County held by Julie Raque Adams. Trump won the district by three points in 2016. The district moved -27 points from R+33 in 2014 to R+6 in 2018.

THE 2019 PLAYING FIELD: KENTUCKY GOVERNOR’S MANSION IN PLAY

In 2018 Kentucky Democrats made gains and won seats in territory written off by most people after the 2016 cycle. The numbers show that the policies of Kentucky Republicans over the last two years have cost them in their districts with their own voters.

No doubt, Republicans like Senator Damon Thayer, are already suggesting they can continue their unpopular policies in the next session of the General Assembly as a result of the 2018 election.

But analyzing the election results by wins and losses makes sense only in the context of the governing majority for the General Assembly. It provides an incomplete and inaccurate picture of the playing field for Statewide elections next year. Teachers and women are in fact moving the needle across the commonwealth, which bodes well for 2019.

The 2018 cycle sparked enthusiasm in Kentucky Democrats. The surge in grassroots energy has built a foundation for long-term political infrastructure for Kentucky Democrats that includes:

• A strong field of candidates so the party can compete everywhere.
• Building a deep bench of state organizers and staffers.
• A permanent campaign infrastructure at the Kentucky Democratic Party independent of election cycles and personalities.
• Modernized campaigning grounded in best practices, data, and metrics.
• Strong county party structure.

Saddled with one of the most unpopular governors in the country as their leader, Kentucky Republicans lost ground with voters in 2018, and they head into 2019 with an electorate that is skeptical of them on important issues. Democrats picked up seats in 2018 and gained ground in 58 races across the state to head into the 2019 election with an energized base eager for change at the top.

Onward to 2019!