2023/24 team preview: FC Hradec Králové
27 May 2017. The last day the famous White Tower, housing the third largest bell in the country, oversaw top flight action. It may not seem that long, but believe me it is for Hradec Králové residents. František Čech, who scored his first (and to date last) top tier goal back then, is the only current roster member who participated, with only 7 other protagonists of the match still trotting around FORTUNA:LIGA fields. It’s good we’ll soon get to read a new chapter of genuine Hradec top flight experience…
I’ve got to say I was a little overwhelmed with emotion as I was listening to mayor Pavlína Springerová, who once taught me as a proud alumnus of the University of Hradec Králové, confirming the city is still looking at 31 July as the latest date to accept the delivery of the stadium and become its de facto owner, while also beginning the search for a new “strategic partner”.
It’s coming. When I still lived in Hradec, the city was a frequent target of ridicule for repeatedly cancelling calls for tenders on new stadium construction (this being a fourth one, I believe), with the whole modern-day process taking fifteen years to complete — not to mention decades of thoughts and ideas about replacing the awfully flat — hence immensely unpopular among fans and players alike — Všesportovní stadion. For that very reason, the old 1960 stadium in Malšovice had basically gone untouched since the 1990s; such was the actual lenght of Hradec fans’ wait for a new place to attend. Now they will have one, as soon as on 5 August, and they can leave their dusty binoculars at home — won’t need them here!
Of course there’s stuff to criticize; there always is. For one, the stadium was originally supposed to be ready in April. That doesn’t matter to most locals, honestly. What matters to broad public (or opposition politicians rather) whereas die-hard fans could hardly care less: the somewhat see-through sheathing of the stadium that differs from the initial visualization.
What matters above all is that the “Salon of the Republic” — city historically proud of its architecture to a point one of its most important avenues connecting the train station and the city centre is named after an architect — finally has a big, 9300-seat stadium that looks like an actual football ground on its hands, potentially looking at hosting international games one day.
Seeing that ‘Votroci’ won’t have to scramble for last-minute asylum due to some more delays, this summer has been a massive W for the club, complete with the new, modern identity and merch that’s nearly unequivocally loved. Heck, even the odd Italian classic pick of a goal song sounds much more reasonable when chanted like this. Good on you, guys.
Let’s see how the Autumn goes then. I wouldn’t be too optimistic about that.
Looking back on 2022/23
What went (particularly) right
While the neighbouring Pardubice had to tremble at least a little bit over their top flight security ahead of the new stadium opening, Hradec were mathematically safe from relegation before their own Matchday 29. That can’t ever be underestimated, and it’s mostly down to one thing: all three involved goalkeepers collectively preventing upwards of nine goals — the difference between their eventual Top 6 defence (1,35 goals per game) and a barely Top 10 one (1,62) that’d be a result of just average goalkeeping. Pavol Bajza, Michal Reichl and Patrik Vízek all together didn’t allow more goals than expected on 22 matchdays (of 34), at one point towards the end participating on a six-game streak of positive returns as a complete trio.
As per usual under Miroslav Koubek (/Stanislav Hejkal), Hradec were a high-octane team wasting no time getting to the goal and pulling the trigger, actually standing as the 2nd most effective and direct in the league.
What went (especially) wrong
The pressure will be inevitably high on the incoming Jozef Weber et co. at the new, much-awaited stadium, but the bar couldn’t be set any lower results-wise. The team was tired of going over to Mladá Boleslav and pretend to be at home there — much like their predecessors were annoyed to have to swap a decent spot near the hospital for Všesportovní stadion back in the 1960s. As a result, no FORTUNA:LIGA side was responsible for a smaller portion of goals (40,5%) and allowed more xGA (1,91 on average) in their own backyard, with only České Budějovice earning a lower xG share (42,2%). It’s never great when the relegated team is also the lone one to go below your point-per-home-game pace (1,18 while Zbrojovka was at 1,00). In fact, Hradec put in two of the most submissive home performances in recent memory per xG difference — against Jablonec (R22) and Sparta (R24).
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model reflecting traditional stats: Vojtěch Smrž (23rd in F:LIGA)
per my positional models reflecting advanced stats: Pavol Bajza / Filip Čihák
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Pavol Bajza
‘Votroci’ had a whole trio of footballers grading out as “bonafide elite” contributors at their own positions per my mini-models. Bajza (100 pct) likely surprises no one, sporting an impossible high-danger save percentage (63,2% — Teplice’s Mucha, Grigar or Bohemians/Liberec’s Bačkovský didn’t even reach this threshold accounting for all shots), while stealing five games and botching none per my methodology that still misses out on gems like the R30 Slavia shift, easily one of title deciders.
Meanwhile, Filip Čihák (100 pct) and Vojtěch Smrž (96,6 pct) may already surprise some. It’s often said in the expert circles that Hradec Králové tactics make centre backs look better than what they actually are, and I agree to an extent (plus these two sample sizes hover around 14 starts only), but taking their individual track records in account, it’s no fluke.
As part of my 2022 series, I was looking for Čihák to make Plzeň’s backline considerably more mobile on and off the ball, soon feeling let down by another loan deal for him. The former Pardubice star didn’t care too much, duly proceeding to be the very best rudimentary defender per my quartet of metrics, incredibly landing in 84+ percentile for vital blocks, clearance from the centre of the box, aerial duel success rate inside his own box and defensive (ground) duel success rate in danger area in/around his own box.
Back in 2022, additionally, I highlighted Smrž as the biggest upgrade Hradec made that off-season… and he’s proven to be exactly that both as a central midfielder (his usual role), centre back (which is where his above-cited overall percentile actually comes from) and maybe even wingback? While he still has trouble controlling his temper, I find him to carry one of the most fascinating skillsets around, loved by fellow analytics people too. At 26, Smrž is ripe and absolutely should be on the national team bubble.
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Now it’s as clear as day: Václav Pilař is collecting one big comeback after another. The Viktoria Plzeň one didn’t quite work out for him, but the Hradec Králové is an even bigger one for him personally (the former Wolfsburg player had spent 8 years there from the age of 14) and the club itself (that made him the centrepiece of their new identity/kit introductory video), so… no pressure. I hope there’s still a RMSK Cidlina Nový Bydžov comeback somewhere on the horizon, too; the 4th tier is not too shabby.
Pilař didn’t meet my cut-off for a pizza chart last season, but he’s a year removed from grading out as elite self-sufficient chance creator, dangerous set piece winner, ball carrier (very high up the field too) and high-danger shot creator. He’ll be 35 for a majority of this campaign (October birthday) — so any added year is potentially a huge hindrance at this stage of his career — but I still believe there’s a difference-maker on a (much) worse team somewhere in there. He didn’t come close to an average of 2 chances created per 90 minutes in the limited 2022/23 playing time by accident.
Ladislav Krejčí, meanwhile, is over a year removed from… taking the field? Dunno; I honestly have no way of knowing what he’d been up to throughout the past campaign other than sourcing his rich salary from Sparta who shoved him aside to practice — and only really practice — with the B-team. Such a prolonged absence is no small deal for a fresh 31-year-old, but Krejčí has looked revitalized over the pre-season, ironically crushing Sparta’s reserves in latest off-season action as a LW in a 3-4-3.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to Lukáš for guiding me through the motions of Hradec’s pre-season
Squad turnover
It very much looks like ‘Votroci’ focused on shedding roughly the same amount of quality and valuable contribution per each line. Goalkeeper Michal Reichl, centre back Čihák, wingback Matěj Ryneš, attacking midfielder Matej Trusa (not to mention Adam Vlkanova who had a great impact early in 2022/23, too) and forward Filip Kubala all make for departures that are bound to be felt. All in all, Hradec are retaining a mere 68,2% MVP points per my model, 4th lowest portion around. Minutes-wise, it’s a lil better (72,6% retained place them 10th as of now), but only a little.
Biggest upgrade
The stadium? No, honestly, I could hardly find any as I don’t fancy Hradec’s transfer window as of today. Since getting promoted, the modest club has displayed a fabulous habit of luring undervalued talent away from bigger fish (Smrž, but also Jakub Klíma and Kubala before him) as well as smaller one (Štěpán Harazim was a particularly nice gift from Opava, though €200k isn’t change for Hradec), but they haven’t made any deal of the sort in 2023.
Pilař and Krejčí are more nostalgia-induced, Ondřej Šašinka is actually a throwback buy in his own way, too, Petr Juliš is a 20-year-old local lad who’s more famous for being Lukaš’s brother than anything else at this point, Adam Zadražil is a decent no.2 at best (hardly an upgrade on Reichl), and David Heidenreich made for one of the least dependable centre backs in 2022/23 (24 losses leading to shot; 2nd worst rate among regular CBs) and strikes me as a better candidate for the “chip on the shoulder” or even “biggest downgrade” (relative to Čihák) section, so… yeah. Not great.
In fact, Daniel Horák (23) — an inspired pre-season performer for his awareness and fighting spirit who’s coming over from Sparta B — could fetch the most value when the dust settles, but his shoes to fill are big…
Biggest downgrade
Filip Kubala was a massive one, too; for sure. His intelligent behaviour off and on the ball, coupled with an unrivalled ability to navigate tight spaces and force a high turnover, will be dearly missed and doesn’t seem to be replaced either. But seeing he left along with his primary backup in Filip Novotný, I’m tempted to go to Matěj Ryneš instead. The booming wingback-cum-second striker is the closest thing we currently have to David Jurásek, offering the same kind of powerful, engaged, passing as well as crossing presence — only perhaps a tier/level below right now.
I ran Ryneš through both my FB and W model, since he mostly acted as a wingback (emphasis on the “wing” bit), and he did alright as part of both sets of metrics. He indeed sits neck-and-neck with Jurásek as an elite fullback in terms of proactivity/dynamism, lagging behind him to a slightly greater extent in terms of build-up contribution and threat where he, nonetheless, actually beat him in combined xG+xA (92,3 percentile).
The W model that appears to be more relevant for his past season as well as future paints an even more promising picture, though. I’ll soon leave it to the pizza chart, but I’d just like to highlight one aspect of his game I especially love: for a volume crosser (over 3 crosses attempted per game), Ryneš’s rate of those tries that stop with the first opponent blocking their path is nothing short amazing. Only 4 of 53 regular fullbacks — and 4 of 46 regular wingers — did better in this regard, with Ryneš delivering 67 of his 73 crosses to areas where they could’ve feasibly caused in/direct damage. Jurásek, for that matter, is in a different stratosphere regarding volume (6,77 crosses per) and slightly worse off re. early blocked crosses (14,5%).
New kid on the block
Hradec have explicitly promoted Vojtěch Baloun and Martin Hlaváč (both b. 2002) from within, but they had already done so for the latter stages of 2022/23, so nothing new to see here. They might not even be that good, along with the current U-19 crop who were far away from saving their asses in the Czech top flight, losing most of the finest prospects to B-team in the process. One of them was the highly-touted David Jurčenko (b. 2004), Czech U-19 international, who’s since been loaned out to nearby second-tier outfit Chrudim along with other longtime regional talents (Daniel Kutík, Lukáš Hájek). So I don’t know, folks, I guess I must concede a defeat once more.
Looking ahead to 2023/24
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of July 13 and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
If the role exists for ‘Votroci’ at all — Weber has flipped the script at various points of pre-season and could go with 4 as well as 3 at the back, one or two centre forwards… you name it — there currently isn’t a proven right wing in the fold. This comes with an asterisk because Daniel Vašulín naturally gravitates toward that sideline, and would likely start out right if 3-4-3 is indeed the primary formation to roll with, but the situation doesn’t strike me as ideal — especially with the centre forward crop looking distinctly poor compare to the rest of the top flight (perhaps needing Vašulín, too).
I quite like the tenacious Vašulín, but my model hasn’t been fond of him ever since he entered the league, and his poor discipline (fouls, offsides) has a lot to do with that, along with surprisingly limited scrambling contribution both in terms of creating chances and recovering balls.
Picking up on the point I made above, a difference-maker upfront could be needed, as well, which is funny because… I formulated this very need, word for word, in 2022 already. The need was sort of fixed by Filip Kubala then, with the versatile forward being highly involved in team goals (7th most) and doing alright in expected points added despite getting set back a ton by poor luck in front of the goal (13th most)… but Kubala is gone now.
That brings us to Matěj Koubek who’s supposed to be his difference-making heir apparent, having already moved across from Bohemians in the fall, but I’m afraid I don’t see it. He’s not awfully young anymore (turning 24 halfway through the upcoming campaign as the oldest member of the U-21 Euro squad) and he was largely a passenger on this team last term. Maybe he proves me wrong, but his profile certainly doesn’t scream “no. 1”…
Only Michal Škoda put a higher percentage of his high-danger shots off target (not counting blocked attempts, mind) than Koubek who somehow managed to utterly bottle six shooting opportunities with 20+% likelihood of resulting in a goal scored per xG. I could easily see a pattern developing.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- I don’t have many points on this particular depth chart I wouldn’t have mentioned already other than perhaps urging you to imagine it without the loaned out Kutík (my bad) and reminding you of Martin Svědík stating Šašinka is hardly a centre forward and works better just below the striker (I’d concur, which frankly is what makes the CF group all the more concerning). It’s also worth mentioning that Jakub Rada was the 4th best ball progressor via passing play, which might come across as a mild shock to some of you since he’s taken a noticeable step back in terms of influence after an overall better 2021/22 where he ranked 9th.
- Remember how I said that Hradec’s strategy might make centre backs look more quality than what they actually are? Well, František Čech had apparently missed the memo, grading out as the 2nd worst regular centre half around, on the back of non-existent contribution upfront (fine for a middle CB in a back three) and the league-worst success rate in aerial duels inside his own box (won 3 out of 14) which is fine for his height, decidedly not fine for his role, and kinda tanking my bold Fabio Cannavaro comparison from last year. Čech has got his fans for working hard, but sometimes it’s perhaps too hard — leading to a lot of low fouls.
- Speaking of Hradec’s specific tactics (not) flattering some players, how about these two combative central midfielders who more or less complement each other while remaining distinctly below-average?
- Finally, I wonder if this isn’t the year we get to see Michal Leibl operating out wide — be it as a fullback or wingback — more often again. Remember this is very much how he came into the league, soon moving to wide centre back where he once again flashed some excellent penalty area gaining (best) and opposing goal threatening (98,3 pct) skills. As a CB, he’s essentially poor man’s Michal Kadlec (as far as offensive contribution goes), and I wonder what shoving him to the left full-time would do for his awful loose ball duel success and low fouling rate.
Roster battle to follow
Last year, I was very low on the largely unproved RWB department; this year I was ready to go as high as above average on the strength of an under-the-radar breakout seasons from both Adam Gabriel and Harazim, only for the underwhelming RW deck to drag their lower-sitting partners back down. Anyway, it sets up a particularly intriguing roster battle (which may not turn out to be one since there’s potentially an opening at LWB, too).
It’s good to be mindful of two aspects especially: the discrepancy in sample size and the “passable” tag for Gabriel’s passing range and smarts that doesn’t quite do him justice. He doesn’t stretch play horizontally and could do better with picking his crossing spots, but I rate his cutback game particularly highly which suggests some decent brains to be channeled.
As for Harazim, he’s delivered a big shock of his own, cracking the penalty area from open play at the 5th highest rate for a fullback (only Sparta, Slavia and Olomouc peers rank ahead of him), which I’m sure you wouldn’t have guessed. Then again, the 2,21 entries per game are lovely (ahead of David Pech, Libor Holík, Jan Juroška… cream of the crop of attacking wing/fullbacks), but I’d like to see him repeat it over a larger sample.
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
For now, Hradec are the only side I specifically marked down for off-season development in the coaching seat. The jury is naturally out, but swapping Koubek for Weber does look like a considerable downgrade on the face of it, even though Koubek’s right-hand Hejkal remains on board. Combined with a sub-par transfer window, I believe only Pardubice and Teplice have lost more value over the summer, so it’s no wonder…
… hang on, their projection is 3,2 points better off than last year?!
Again, much like with Baník Ostrava, we bump into the old “Jakub’s model doesn’t overreact to small-scale development for the simple reason of taking multiple seasons in account” explanation. To that end, ‘Votroci’ have just turned in another 40+ point campaign — threshold they are now virtually certain to meet inside the regular season already (91% chance!) — and rattled off as many victories as Slovácko (13), so why would the model give up on them just now? Falling down to the relegation group for the first time since returning to F:LIGA is still pretty likely but also down from 65%.
Bold prediction
The track record: 1/1. Hradec did set a club record for most unidentical XIs
The prediction: Hradec Králové will suffer their biggest loss in season opener
The rationale: The deja-vu obviously wasn’t a pleasant one for Slavia fans. Once again, they are facing ‘Votroci’ in the first (0:1 loss) and last round (1:1 draw) after suffering from a severe Hradec-related trauma towards the end of 2021/22 already — the wild 3:4 defeat that effectively cost them the title-winning streak right at the beginning of the championship group action.
This year, Slavia are in for a sweet revenge. You may recall they absolutely crushed Hradec across the 2021/22 regular season (combined 9:2 scoreline), and I expect more of the same this season. The home advantage is huge to begin with, and so is Weber’s pathetic record with Slavia (two points from 14 games) as well as his recent love for extremely slow starts which resulted in his autumn firing on all of his last three stops (České Budějovice, Karviná, Mladá Boleslav) — inside the first 10, 10 and 14 rounds.
I’m going to say 0:5 — 0:4 at a minimum.
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