Worried About North Korea? Here’s a summary for you.

Tim Royers
Aug 9, 2017 · 14 min read

North Korea is back in the news, thanks in part to a series of escalating actions on their end and President Trump’s rhetoric on Tuesday that North Korea would “face fire and fury like the world has never seen” if they do not back down. North Korea then shot back that it would attack Guam and launch nuclear strikes on the mainland United States.

As a result, two things have happened:

  1. A bunch of people are freaking out that World War 3 is imminent
  2. Suddenly a ton of people are experts on North Korea on social media
How a lot of people feel about North Korea right now.

If you are in that first camp, then this post is for you. I have been teaching about North Korea for the past eleven years to high school sophomores — so this is a subject that I am fairly familiar with. While the volume of the rhetoric is certainly louder this time, this is definitely not the first time these kinds of barbs have been traded between North Korea and the United States. That being said, that doesn’t mean there is no cause for alarm. There is.

Here are some important things for you to know before you start reading. I may add to this as questions come up:

Sanctions: A punishment that countries or international organizations (namely the United Nations) use to try and pressure countries to stop a certain course of action. A sanction is an economic punishment — you might stop trading oil, or certain metals, or food …. you are attempting to hurt them economically (either by no longer selling OR no longer buying certain goods) to pressure them politically.

Nuclear Weapons vs. Missiles: These are two different things. The nuclear weapon is the actual bomb that produces the mushroom cloud. A missile is simply ONE way of delivering a nuclear bomb to its target. In the United States we talk about the “nuclear triad:” bombers, land based ICBMs, and submarine launched missiles. Missiles are concerned much better than bombs dropped from planes because they are much harder to intercept.

Being able to fit a nuclear weapon onto a missile is a huge challenge. Designing a nuclear bomb is tough enough, but making it small enough to fit onto a missile and still detonate correctly is a significant challenge.

ICBM: InterContinental Ballistic Missile. Basically the longest range missile a country can produce. The missile has to be able to travel at least 3500 miles to even be labeled an ICBM. These missiles are FAST, briefly going up into space before coming down and hitting their target. These weapons are moving at speeds in excess of 10,000 miles per hour.

Note that this diagram is for an ICBM equipped with MIRVS — Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles — basically a fancy acronym for having multiple nuclear bombs inside one missile. North Korea does NOT have MIRV technology. Source: Wikipedia Commons

So with vocab out of the way, let’s walk through a brief crash course of the history of this conflict and what’s at stake right now (Note to readers who are familiar with recent history of Korea. I am simplifying a LOT in this summary. I am doing that because I wanted to put something together for casual readers that have concerns about this, and while I’d LOVE to go in more depth, even this basic summary clocks in at over 7 pages. So if you notice I’m glossing over something, please understand that’s intentional):

North Korea In A Nutshell

Korea has been split since World War 2, when the Soviet backed Kim il-Sung took control in the north and the American backed Syngman Rhee took control in the south. North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK), with the backing of the Soviet Union and China invaded South Korea with the hopes of reunifying Korea. The timing of these events were critical, because they came just after communist forces under Mao Zedong took control of China and the Soviets successfully tested a nuclear device. Truman was under pressure to ‘stop the bleeding’ in the Cold War and orchestrated a UN intervention to rescue South Korea (Republic of Korea, or ROK). The war ultimately ended in a draw, but critically they failed to formally resolve the war. An armistice was signed to end the fighting but no peace treaty was ever ratified to officially end the conflict. Technically, the Korean War never ended. As a result, the border between North and South Korea, called the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), is one of the most heavily defended borders in the world. Military service is an expectation in South Korea, with most males being conscripted into the armed forces. The United States still maintains a force of more than 23,000 soldiers in South Korea to this day.

Panmunjom is the one location on the DMZ where the two sides can meet and talk (if they want to). In the foreground is a South Korean soldier talking to an American soldier. The North Koreans are all in the background — the raised concrete bar is the border between the two countries. Image is from the Guardian.

For many, North Korea is the laughing stock of the international community. They’ve been made fun of for decades — see here, here, here, and here. But in many respects, that is a recent phenomenon. In the immediate decades after the Korean War, NORTH Korea was the much better country to live in. Thanks to assistance from its communist allies, North Korea rapidly industrialized and expanded its economy. It wasn’t until the 1970s that South Korea had a more open, democratic government and began its transformation into the modern, developed country that we know today.

North Korea has had three leaders, all from the same family. Kim il-Sung (1948–1994), his son Kim Jong-il (1994–2011), and his son and current leader Kim Jong-un (2011-present). Part communist state, part authoritarian cult, the Kim family has turned North Korea into the “hermit kingdom,” an isolated country with its access to the outside world deliberately cut off. The message North Koreans get is simple: all of the good things in their life is a result of the leadership of the DPRK, and all of the problems are due to the United States and its allies.

1980s and 1990s

In the 1980s, North Korea signed on to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, they object to some of the expectations, namely inspections from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). As the Soviet Union was in the process of collapsing, the United States agreed to remove nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula. South Korea promised in 1991 to never attempt to acquire or produce nuclear weapons. This was done, in part, to get North Korea to stop objecting to inspections and fully comply with the NPT.

An important note here: a nuclear program can be for a couple different purposes: nuclear energy (power plants) and nuclear weapons. The United States has both obviously, but there are ways to develop a nuclear program where you cannot produce nuclear weapons. Fissile material — uranium and plutonium — has to be refined in a certain way that can be used for nuclear bombs. This is usually referred to as material that is “weapons grade.”

In 92/93, there were several indications that North Korea was “cheating,” and their nuclear program was not just for peaceful energy purposes. When it became clear that North Korea was planning on leaving the NPT, the United States negotiated the deal known as the Agreed Framework. The deal was simple: if North Korea stopped illegally acquiring weapons grade material, the United States would give them aid. The big things were:

  • North Korea would shut down its existing nuclear facilities that can make weapons grade materials
  • The United States would build two new “light water reactors” by 2003 that meet its electrical needs. It is much harder to produce weapons grade material from light water reactors (if at all).
  • Oil would be provided to North Korea until the new reactors were online.

For the last nearly 25 years, the Agreed Framework kicked off what I would call the “Good Cop, Bad Cop” diplomacy.

Just think of how the US and South Korea acted as Good Cop/Bad Cop from the Lego Movie. Super nice one minute, dropping the hammer the next.

South Korea and the United States rotate between attempting to encourage North Korea through offering them assistance like in the Agreed Framework, and punishing them through sanctions, threats of force through military drills, and other means.

During the 90s, there were two concerns with North Korea:

  • Developing more and more sophisticated missile technology
  • Exporting their weapons to technology to other countries and groups (e.g. Pakistan, Iran)

Again, this was met with good cop, bad cop. In the same year (1998), the US put sanctions on North Korea for giving technology to other states, AND South Korea announced its “Sunshine Policy” — a plan to work more closely with North Korea and try and partner with them economically.

A cycle began of sanctions, attempts to offer assistance, North Korea agreeing to inspections, the US lifting (or partially lifting) sanctions, North Korea having another missile test, and the cycle repeating. By the end of the 90s, North Korea had missiles — the Taepodong — that could potentially reach the United States (at least Alaska and Hawaii).

Ranges for missiles North Korea had near the turn of the century. Source: BBC

2000s

The first couple years looked really great for the Korean Peninsula. North and South Korea openly talked about reunification. North Korea made serious offers to stop exporting missile technology and even stop testing missiles (Russia, under Putin, stepped in and offered to help with this deal).

Things changed with the election of President Bush. While he still wanted to work towards a deal with North Korea, and kept working on the Agreed Framework, he also questioned North Korea’s commitment and wanted greater assurances that the world could verify that North Korea was actually shutting down their missile programs.

2002

2002 changes things for two reasons. First, President Bush, in his State of the Union address, states that North Korea is a member of the “Axis of Evil.” Then, later in the year the United States finds out that North Korea had been operating a separate, secret program that was enriching uranium for nuclear weapons. In response, US and South Korea cut off aid and stopped building those two light water reactors.

President Bush delivering his “Axis of Evil” speech. Image source: Salon

Six Party Talks

One year later, in 2003, a new group was established to try and de-escalate the situation. Called the “Six Party Talks” — it involved North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the United States. Even as these negotiations are happening, North Korea continues working on its nuclear program.

In 2006, North Korea successfully tested its first nuclear device. The UN voted to put huge sanctions on North Korea.

Then in 2007, it looked like a deal was reached. The Six Party Talk countries agreed to provide fuel and economic assistance to North Korea. They started disabling its reactor that can make plutonium. They handed over reports on their nuclear weapons program. In 2008, to encourage good relations, the United States took North Korea off the list of countries that sponsor terrorism.

2009 changed things AGAIN. North Korea did a complete 180 and tested a second nuclear device. The President of South Korea announced that they would no longer help North Korea if they maintained their nuclear program. North Korea launched a rocket that year as well. North Korea then abandoned the Six Party Talks and conducted a series of additional missile tests.

2010s

Tensions continued to escalate and then subside. In 2010 a South Korean destroyer was sunk by a torpedo. The consensus is that a North Korean submarine sank it. That same year, North Korea launched an artillery attack on South Korean controlled territory that killed some soldiers and civilians.

In 2011 Kim Jong-il died, and was replaced by his son Kim Jong Un. He continued to move forward with his country’s missile and nuclear weapons programs. The Obama administration took a hard line stance, essentially trying to break the cycle of North Korea doing something threatening, the US offering to help them in exchange for them backing off, only to see North Korea do something threatening later to try and score additional assistance.

Flash forward to the last couple of years. In 2016, North Korea tested its Hwasong-10 (Musudan) and the Hwasong-7 (No-Dong 1) missile several times, most of those were failures. They also tested a submarine launched missile and test detonated multiple nuclear bombs.

North Korean Missile Test. Source: Popular Mechanics

That gets us to 2017. From February to May, North Korea tests at least one ballistic missile. They introduce new missiles that have better technology and better range (like the Pukguksong-2). Then in July, North Korea test launched the Hwasong-14. This is the first ICBM North Korea has tested, and it has the range to reach the continental United States, as far as Chicago.

Why People Are Freaking Out Now

Yesterday (August 8th), a report leaked indicating that North Korea had developed nuclear devices small enough to be deployed on its missiles. President Trump, when asked, made his “fire and fury” statement. In response, North Korea announced they are considering a strike on the Pacific island of Guam, which is controlled by the United States and serves as a major site for American military activity in the region.

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Freak Out:

  1. Clearly, based on the timeline I have shared with you, we have been here before. Do you know how many times North Korea has threatened to attack the United States? Dozens of times. In 2009, North Korea said the armistice agreement ending the fighting in the Korean War was no longer in effect and anything could happen now. In 2013, they threatened to annihilate Guam if we continued to do training exercises in the area. In 2014, they threatened to nuke the White House. This is nothing new.
  2. The United States also has technology to deal with missile launches. We have deployed our THAAD and AEGIS systems to the region. THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) is a land based anti-missile system that can shoot down missiles in their terminal phase (when the missile is descending towards its target). The AEGIS system is operated by the navy and is based on ships. We also have interceptors in Alaska for more long range targets.
  3. The other reason to not freak out is that North Korea’s nuclear program is way, way behind the rest of the word. To my knowledge, their nuclear weapons have just now reached the size of the bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Those weapons are obviously terrifying, but what most people do not realize is that post World War 2 nuclear weapons got MUCH larger. The standard United States Minuteman III missile carries nuclear warheads that are more than twenty times more powerful than those bombs. And those are way LESS powerful than the biggest bombs we were testing during the Cold War.

Here’s Why You Should Be Concerned:

  1. The State Department is still not fully staffed to handle a crisis of this magnitude. The position of Ambassador to South Korea is currently vacant. Oh wait, it gets worse. Here are some positions that are currently unfilled that might be useful in this type of crisis:
  • Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs
  • Assistant Secretary for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance
  • Assistant Secretary for International Security and Nonproliferation Affairs
  • Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

This is even more concerning because the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, comes from a business background. That is not to disparage Secretary Tillerson’s resume, but if you are weak in diplomatic experience, having the aforementioned positions vacant really adds to the tension. In the 90s and 00s, it was largely people in those positions in the State Department that did most of the diplomatic legwork with North Korea, particularly because we don’t have normalized relations.

  1. North Korea’s technological advancements — and tests — are accelerating. Previously, years passed between North Korea’s 1st and 2nd nuclear weapons test. It used to be months, if not years, passed between missile tests. Now they’re happening on a monthly basis. That means that the time period that other states used to have to sit down at the table and cool things down is simply not available. And assuming that the United States plays it cool, it is important to remember that there are deep, deep rifts between North and South Korea and even deeper rifts between Japan and North Korea (as a result of Japan’s acquisition of Korea as a colony in 1910).
  2. President Trump’s rhetoric is much more bellicose and threatening than the previous three Presidents — Obama, Bush, and Clinton. It could totally be that President Trump is simply sabre rattling for a number of reasons (whip up political support in his base, look strong in the eyes of the international community), but we have not seen North Korea go up against such an aggressive American administration before. Their responses to the previous three presidents became border line predictable. We are entering unknown territory because the playbook on the American side is almost totally different.
  3. It is unclear how long the Kim regime can maintain control of North Korea. With each passing year, tech advancements make it easier and easier for North Koreans to break into the outside world through media, pirated internet access, and other means. Increased economic pressure as a result of sanctions is further constraining the DPRK. There are reports that North Korea exports drugs to other countries as a way of bringing hard currency back into the country so it can purchase the goods that it needs, among a litany of other illicit activities. You might think that the Kim regime being on its last ropes is a good thing, but remember that might make them more likely to act irrationally since they have nothing left to lose.

I cannot understate this point enough. Nuclear armed states who feel they have nothing to lose are one of the most dangerous threats to global security. For all of his rhetoric, Kim Jong-Il in the grand scheme of things was most likely never even legitimately considering going to war because he lived an incredibly luxurious life in North Korea. Why would he risk that? But if his son, current leader Kim Jong Un, feels like he will lose power anyway, what is holding him back?

Most people argue that the Cuban Missile Crisis is the closest we came to nuclear conflict, but I would argue that the Yom Kippur War put us much, much closer. When Israel felt that Egypt and Syria were going to break through Israeli lines and conquer the entire country, Moshe Dayan lamented that the “third temple” (a phrase referring to Israel in its modern form) was going to fall and wanted to unleash its nuclear weapons against its opponents. Usually that option was unthinkable because nuclear blasts in Egypt and Syria would most certainly have significant consequences in Israel, and because the Arab world would never relent against Israel in its response. But with the death of the country already looking like a near certainty, that hesitation was gone. One of the key reasons why the United States intervened in the Yom Kippur War in the first place to resupply Israel’s military was because we believed they were seriously considering using nuclear weapons.

Hopefully the biggest takeaway in all of this is that we are not seeing a new crisis unfold. This is simply the latest move on the chessboard in a very, very long game that dates back to the 1980s when it comes to North Korea and its nuclear program. Whether it becomes just another flash point on a timeline to be talked about years from now or something more is the big question. “Something more” could be good OR bad. Right now people are afraid of nuclear conflict, but it could be that the high stakes actually prompt meaningful negotiation and resolution. After all, it was the danger of the Yom Kippur War that directly contributed to the Camp David Accords and the normalization of relations between Egypt and Israel. But that makes my concern #1 an even bigger deal — how can we steer this crisis towards a resolution with an understaffed State Department? Regardless of the outcome, this is something we should all monitor closely.

Teachers: If you’re thinking of teaching about North Korea, I’d highly recommend the Choices Program. It has great materials and my students always enjoyed playing out the Six Party Talks in their roleplay of trying to resolve the crisis. You can find that here:

http://www.choices.edu/resources/detail.php?id=195

Tim Royers

Written by

2016 Nebraska Teacher of the Year, Social Studies Teacher, Public Schools Advocate

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