Election Update — Issue 6

118 days until Election Day

21 min readJul 8, 2020

Sixty percent of state primaries are now complete. In that time, the COVID-19 pandemic drastically shifted the political environment, impacting the way candidates reach voters, voting logistics, and the issues voters are prioritizing. Over 20 states’ primary and runoff dates were moved because of COVID-19.

Ahead of the November elections, states continue to establish safe and robust voting protocols, including mail-in voting. Kentucky’s June primary was the most recent test of how coronavirus precautions affect voters. Many prepared for possible voting problems and voter suppression amid high voter turnout. With fewer in-person polling sites, Kentucky’s Democratic governor and Republican secretary of state worked in a bipartisan manner to expand absentee and early voting to prevent voter suppression. A record number of votes were cast with nearly 75 percent of the more than one million votes cast by mail. Roughly 800,000 ballots were mailed in, and at least 156,000 people voted in person. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court temporarily blocked a lower court’s ruling that would have eased Alabama’s restrictions on absentee ballots ahead of their July 14 primary runoff elections.

Former Vice President Joe Biden will accept the Democratic presidential nomination at a mostly virtual convention in Milwaukee in August. Due to the ongoing pandemic, delegates are asked to stay home and conduct convention business remotely. The convention is also being moved to a smaller venue, and it will include live and pre-taped programming from Milwaukee and other satellite locations across the country.

The Republican National Convention will still take place in Charlotte, North Carolina in some form, but the convention’s celebration is being moved to Jacksonville, Florida after Democratic North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper admitted a full-scale convention would be unlikely and would require social distancing precautions. Only official convention business will be conducted in North Carolina while celebratory events and President Donald Trump’s acceptance speech will occur in Florida.

Republicans held onto the NY-27 seat vacated by former Representative Chris Collins (R-NY) when Republican candidate Chris Jacobs won the special election on June 23. While Staten Island started counting absentee ballots on Monday and the remaining New York City boroughs started counting theirs today, sixteen-term Representative Eliot Engel (D-NY) appears to have lost to progressive Democratic candidate Jamaal Bowman and would be Democrats’ first loss of an incumbent in the 2020 cycle. Chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) had a close race but is expected to win her primary against progressive challenger Suraj Patel by a thin margin. In a surprising upset, five-term incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R-CO) lost his June 30 primary to 33-year-old conservative challenger and restaurateur Lauren Boebert.

With 118 days to go until Election Day, below is our update with a list of key dates and a state of play for presidential, House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.

KEY DATES

PRESIDENTIAL

Ahead of the November general election, Biden agreed to debate President Trump in three previously set events by the Commission on Presidential Debates. The debates will take place on September 29 at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana; October 15 at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, Florida; and October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. The second debate was originally scheduled to take place at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, but was moved in June over health and safety concerns due to the ongoing pandemic. A vice presidential debate will be held on October 7 at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Longtime GOP strategist Karl Rove recently acknowledged “the president is behind today,” and recent polls show disapproval of President Trump is at 55 percent. Polls also show a decline in support for President Trump versus Biden, with Biden garnering 50 percent versus President Trump’s 36 percent of the vote. Groups traditionally targeted by the Republican party, such as males and older voters, are starting to favor Biden. Many of these traditionally Republican voters cite their disapproval of President Trump’s response to the pandemic and nationwide protests. President Trump continues to poll well on the economy and with the post-pandemic economic recovery continuing, the president could use his favorable marks to boost his poll numbers.

The Cook Political Report released updated electoral college ratings this morning, characterizing the election as a likely “Democratic tsunami.” Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category. Georgia joins Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida in the Toss-Up column. Maine’s 2nd district moves from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican. These moves give Biden 279 electoral college votes, over the 270 electoral vote threshold.

The Biden campaign continues to vet potential female vice presidential candidates. In June, Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) withdrew from consideration, urging the Biden campaign to pick a woman of color. Candidates like Senators Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA); Representatives Val Demings (D-FL) and Karen Bass (D-CA); Governors Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) and Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI); and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and National Security Advisor Susan Rice are all being considered for the job. Biden originally committed to naming a nominee by August 1 but recently noted the deadline could slip.

The Biden campaign officially formed a transition team in late June as Biden enters the formal phase of planning for his potential administration. While the team is still in its early stages, it is led by former Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman and includes Obama Administration alumni and other senior staff from various offices on Capitol Hill. The campaign is starting to raise money to continue staffing the transition committee, bringing in nearly $700,000 out of the estimated $10 million to $12 million that it costs to set up a transition team, with the government paying for about half. The money raised by the campaign and the amount contributed by the government goes to expenses including staff salaries after the election for the president-elect.

FUNDRAISING

President Trump and the Republican National Committee (RNC) raised more than $131 million in June, bringing in $266 million in the second quarter. President Trump’s campaign spent $95.3 million on advertising focusing on attacking Biden in battleground states, its largest ad buy this election cycle.

Democrats continued their fundraising haul, bringing in over $141 million in June for a total of $282 million during the second quarter, thanks in part to the Biden Victory Fund, the joint enterprise between the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Biden’s campaign highlighted that of the $141 million raised in June, 68 percent were new donors with an average online donation of $34 from the campaign’s growing list of small donors.

A group of Republican operatives launched a new Super PAC this month, called the Right Side PAC, to encourage undecided or Republican voters to support Biden. The Super PAC is targeting voters in battleground states such as Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania to build support for Biden. In May, a group called Republican Voters Against Trump launched a multi-million-dollar ad campaign targeting right-leaning voters in swing states. The Lincoln Project, another anti-Trump Republican group founded in 2019, is also running negative ads against the president.

The July 4th weekend brought its own fireworks with Kayne West’s announcement to his 30 million Twitter followers that he is running for president. To date, West is not taking concrete actions to be on the ballot this November. There are several methods for presidential candidates to get on the ballot. Since West does not have a political party helping him to get on the ballot he can try to get on as an independent candidate. But filing deadlines for registering as an independent presidential candidate passed in several states, including Texas, North Carolina, New York, Maine, New Mexico, and Indiana. Even so, there is a path forward for West. It is not too late for the presidential hopeful to organize a successful write-in campaign with his resources and name recognition. With an equally divided country, a third candidate can make a tricky political terrain even more treacherous.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Democrats hold a 35-seat majority, with three vacancies in the House: CA-50 (Duncan Hunter); NC-11 (Mark Meadows); and TX-04 (John Ratcliffe). Republicans must gain 17 seats to flip the House. As of July 8, Republican Chris Jacobs (NY-27) is not yet sworn into office to replace former Representative Chris Collins after winning the June 23 special election. Jacobs’ Democratic opponent Nate McMurray refuses to concede the race until all mail-in ballots are counted.

With 60 percent of the state primaries complete, Democrats are closely watching New York as the New York City boroughs start counting absentee ballots this week. Republicans saw a win with candidate Chris Jacobs clinching both the special election to fill the seat vacated by Collins and primary nomination for a full term in NY-27. July will bring the Democratic runoff for the contested TX-24 to replace the open seat being vacated by Republican Representative Will Hurd.

THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT EFFECT

Although the president’s endorsement carries weight in most Republican districts, the NC-11 runoff showed a different trend. In the June 23 primary runoff, Republican candidate Madison Cawthorn, a real estate agent and motivational speaker, received 65.8 percent of the vote over Trump-backed real estate agent Lynda Bennett’s 34.2 percent. Bennett also received support from White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, the former representative for the district.

On June 13, President Trump endorsed incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman in the VA-05 Republican state primary convention. But conservative candidate Bob Good won the primary over Riggleman after he was reprimanded by conservatives for officiating a same-sex marriage. The same outcome occurred in CO-03, where the president endorsed incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton, who was unseated during the June 30 primary by conservative candidate and political newcomer Lauren Boebert. Although history shows the president’s endorsement can have a positive effect in safe Republican districts, Riggleman and Tipton’s losses could be the beginning of a different trend for Republican incumbents.

In the 2018 midterm elections, 11 Republican House candidates who President Trump endorsed lost in part because the president’s endorsement energized opposing candidates’ voters and donors. Researchers who recently published their work in the Legislative Studies Quarterly found that in the 2018 midterm elections, “candidates who received a presidential endorsement were less likely to win than those who did not.” This will be a trend to watch going into November with 30 Democrats defending seats in districts won by Trump in 2016.

FROM THE BATTLEGROUND

CO-03: In a surprising upset, five-term incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R-CO) lost the June 30 primary to 33-year old challenger and restaurateur Lauren Boebert, 55 percent to 45 percent. Boebert, a conservative who owns Shooters Grille where staff open carry, shored up the conservative voters in this rural western district by criticizing Tipton’s bipartisan voting record during his five terms in the House. Even with President Trump’s endorsement, Tipton was unable to persuade conservative voters as Boebert leaned heavily on her support for the second amendment and not disqualifying QAnon conspiracy theories. Following Tipton’s concession, President Trump tweeted his support for Boebert. She is set to face off against Democratic nominee Diane Mitsch Bush in the November election. After Boebert’s upset, the Cook Political Report changed the district rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
NJ-02: Two Democrats faced off in the July 7 primary to unseat freshman Republican Representative Jeff Van Drew. Democratic candidate Amy Kennedy, a teacher and mental health advocate, won the nomination Tuesday evening after a contentious primary race against Brigid Callahan Harrison. At the time the race was called by the Associated Press, Kennedy was leading the five-candidate field with 55 percent of the vote and only 30 percent of the precincts reporting. Van Drew, who switched parties in 2018 during House Democrats’ effort to impeach President Trump, goes into November with a fundraising advantage of $1.1 million.
NJ-05: In a district Trump carried by one-point in 2016, second-term incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer was challenged in yesterday’s primary by progressive Glen Rock Councilwoman Arati Kreibich. Gottheimer entered the primary with a $8.5 million war chest compared to Kreibich’s $145,000 cash on hand. Gottheimer is currently leading Kreibich by 37.6 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, Frank Pallotta entered the primary as the favorite of the three candidates to win the party’s nomination and is leading the field with 67 percent of the vote.
NY-12: Fourteen-term Democratic incumbent and chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee Carolyn Maloney appears to have won her June 23 primary against progressive-backed challenger Suraj Patel for a second time. Patel also ran against Maloney in 2018. According to the New York Times, so far Patel has claimed the majority of votes in the Queens and Brooklyn boroughs but fell short in the votes from Manhattan, giving Maloney the needed edge to pull off a victory by a small margin. The race is not called yet as the New York City boroughs started counting absentee ballots this week.
NY-16: Thirty-year Democratic incumbent and chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Eliot Engel appears to have lost his primary on June 23 to Jamaal Bowman, a progressive middle school principal, which would mark the first defeat for a Democratic incumbent in 2020. Bowman received endorsements from Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) as well as neighboring congressional district Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). After Engel struggled to address his recent missteps, including a hot mic incident during a Black Lives Matter protest, he went into the primary with backing from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Hillary Clinton, and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Although there are still thousands of absentee ballots to be counted, Bowman declared victory on June 25, unseating a powerful Democratic incumbent going into November.
NY-24: Three-term incumbent Rep. John Katko (R-NY) is facing a tough re-election against Democratic candidate Dana Balter. Katko was able to defend his seat by a five-point margin in 2018 when Balter first ran. Katko is also one of three Republican incumbents serving in a district won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Balter, who is a single-payer health care advocate and professor, became the Democratic nominee in June when her opponent Francis Conole conceded the race. Katko has the fundraising advantage, sitting on an almost $1.3 million war chest going into the general election compared to Balter’s $180,600. After the primary, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
OK-05: In the June 30 primary, 13 Republican candidates ran looking to receive the party’s nomination and face freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) in November. In one of the most competitive districts of the 2020 election, Republicans are looking to flip the seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2016. The crowded field had four top contenders going into the primary, including Republican State Senator Stephanie Bice, who received an endorsement from Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY); businesswoman Terry Neese, who showed a strong fundraising performance; former state school superintendent Janet Barresi; and businessman David Hill. None were able to break the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, and in the end, Bice and Neese are advancing to the August 25 runoff, while Horn continues to build her $2.4 million war chest.
TX-24: After a number of delays due to the pandemic, a long-awaited runoff election between Democratic candidates Kim Olson and Candace Valenzuela is set for July 14. Leading up to the runoff, Olson will receive outside support from the VoteVets PAC in the form of a $100,000 positive ad buy. With Texas seeing a new wave of COVID-19 cases, the state blocked attempts by Democrats to let more people vote by mail. As of now, the state is moving forward with the as-planned July 14 election.
UT-04: Freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) is set to face Republican former NFL player Burgess Owens after last Tuesday’s primary. In a primary race overshadowed by the state’s gubernatorial race and the pandemic, Owens edged past the four-candidate field with 43.5 percent of the vote. McAdams will face a tough race in this frontline district but has a fundraising advantage with a $2.2 million war chest.

RACE RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists 21 Republican-held seats, 33 Democratic-held seats, and one Independent-held seat as Lean or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists 16 Republican-held seats, 22 Democratic-held seats, and one Independent-held seat as Lean or Toss-Up.

*MT-AL, NY-24, and VA-05 shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

SENATE

There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs with special elections in Arizona and Georgia. Republicans look to keep their three-seat majority by defending 23 seats, including two seats in states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (Senators Susan Collins in Maine and Cory Gardner in Colorado), and retaining three open seats after the retirements of Senators Pat Roberts in Kansas, Lamar Alexander in Tennessee, and Mike Enzi in Wyoming. Senate Democrats must defend 12 seats, including two incumbents in states Trump won in 2016 (Senators Doug Jones in Alabama and Gary Peters in Michigan), and protect an open seat in New Mexico after the retirement of Senator Tom Udall.

FROM THE FRONTLINES

Alabama: In one of the most vulnerable Democratic seats, incumbent Democratic Senator Doug Jones faces a difficult run for a full Senate term in November against either former Attorney General Jeff Sessions or former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville. Sessions and Tuberville are headed to a runoff on July 14 after neither received a majority of the vote in the Republican March primary. Jones, who won his seat in Alabama’s 2018 special election, trails both of his challengers by at least two points in a June 26 poll. The contest between the Republican candidates is becoming increasingly heated as Tuberville focuses on his opponent’s recusal during the Department of Justice’s investigation into Russian election meddling. Conversely, Sessions is painting Tuberville as inexperienced and too moderate. But President Trump endorsed Tuberville over his former Attorney General. Fifty-three percent of Alabamians prefer Alabama to Auburn — it remains to be seen if this will help Sessions, a University of Alabama School of Law alumnus. The race is rated as Likely Republican.
Alaska: Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan was set to run an easy re-election campaign without any challengers in a state that Trump carried by more than 15 points in 2016. However, independent candidate Al Gross, running with Democratic support, is polling on par with Sullivan and even outraised him in the first quarter of 2020. Republicans are skeptical of polling data that show the two are tied due to the difficulty of polling in Alaska, but the Cook Political Report changed the race rating from Solid Republican to Lean Republican because of Gross’ success.
Arizona: Recent polling shows incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally between nine points behind or four points ahead of Democratic candidate Mark Kelly, and McSally’s seat is one Democrats have their sights on flipping. McSally is turning up anti-China rhetoric and is vocal on her moderate health care position to energize Republican support and reach out to moderate voters. The race is rated as a Toss-Up.
Colorado: Incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner remains one of the more vulnerable Senate Republicans. Gardner was polling almost 20 points behind the Democratic nominee, former Democratic presidential candidate and former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper beat his primary opponent Andrew Romanoff by almost 18 points, despite being held in contempt by the Colorado Independent Ethics Committee for charges regarding alleged gifts received as governor. Gardner may face a difficult re-election campaign against Hickenlooper, who is consolidating Democratic support. The race is rated as a Toss-Up.
Georgia: Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff won his primary race with over 50 percent of the vote on June 9 and will face incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in November. As of June 20, Perdue has the cash advantage with almost $9.4 million cash on hand compared to Ossoff’s $950,000, but the race remains close with Ossoff about three points behind Perdue according to a June 25 Fox News poll. The race is rated Lean Republican.
Georgia Special: Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler’s campaign is finding renewed strength after the Department of Justice dropped its investigation into Loeffler in late May for insider trading. Loeffler is polling on par with her primary challenger Rep. Doug Collins and the leading Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock after trailing the two by 22 points and six points, respectively, earlier this year. Loeffler still remains in a vulnerable position in advance of Georgia’s jungle special election in November where all candidates run regardless of party. The race is rated Lean Republican.
Iowa: A recent poll found Democratic candidate Theresa Greenfield ahead by three points over incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst, and Ernst’s job approval rating is falling steadily, down to 49 percent from 57 percent in March. Both parties are heavily investing in Iowa, and Ernst has $7 million cash on hand compared to Greenfield’s $4.7 million as of the latest fundraising reports. The race is rated as Lean Republican.
Kansas: The Kansas open primary election on August 4 is expected to be contentious, with 11 candidates seeking to succeed retiring Republican Senator Pat Roberts. The race is coming down to a three-way Republican contest between former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, Representative Roger Marshall, and businessman Bob Hamilton against Democratic candidate Barbara Bollier. Formerly a Republican, Bollier consolidated Democratic support but still faces an uphill challenge in a mostly red state. On the Republican side, support is forming around Marshall, who is polling ahead of Kobach and Hamilton. The conservative group Club for Growth Action also announced it will stop running ads against Marshall. Kobach, a failed gubernatorial candidate against Democrat Laura Kelly in 2018 and known for controversial anti-immigration views, will continue to be a vocal opponent against Marshall. The race is rated Lean Republican.
Kentucky: The state’s June 23 Democratic primary was not called until June 30, when all the mail-in ballots were counted. Amy McGrath edged out progressive candidate Charles Booker. McGrath had 45 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent for Booker. Booker saw a surge of support just before the primary with the recent protests and received high-profile endorsements, including from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). McGrath will now face Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in November. McGrath has a fundraising advantage with almost $20 million cash on hand as of June 3 compared to McConnell’s $15 million. The race is rated Likely Republican.
Massachusetts: Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey faces a primary challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy with polling showing the two candidates neck and neck heading into the final two months before the September 1 primary. With the state’s Democratic convention cancelled because of COVID-19, the candidates are transitioning to virtual campaigning. Kennedy is adapting quicker to digital campaigning and is hoping to appeal to younger voters. The overall race is Solid Democratic, but the primary is currently a Toss-Up.
Montana: Incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines faces competition for re-election from Democratic Montana Governor Steve Bullock, who entered the race in early March. Bullock is showing an advantage as governor and is building a lead over Daines. Bullock’s pandemic response is increasing his approval among voters, and he raised $2.1 million more than Daines in the first quarter of 2020, despite being in the race for less than a month when the quarter ended. Even though Trump won the state by over 20 points in 2016, Montana re-elected Democratic Senator Jon Tester in 2018, and Democrats are hoping they can flip Daines’ seat. The Cook Political Report moved this race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma held its primary on June 30, and incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe will face Democratic candidate Abby Broyles in the general election after earning 73 percent of the vote over three Republican candidates. Inhofe is expected to win his re-election this fall, and the race is rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report.
South Carolina: Incumbent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won his June 9 primary over three Republican candidates with 68 percent of the vote and will face Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison in the November election. Polling shows support for the two candidates is extremely close, opening a new opportunity for Democrats to flip the seat. Graham is trying to appeal to undecided and moderate voters in the state by pulling away from some of the Administration’s actions and refusing to proceed with the Administration’s nomination of Jay Clayton to serve as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York until the New York senators sign off on the nomination. Harrison is still the underdog in the election, and Graham has close to $14 million cash on hand as of June 20 as opposed to Harrison’s $6.7 million. The race is rated Likely Republican.
Virginia: Republican candidate Daniel Gade won his party’s primary on June 23 and will face incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner in November. Warner has a substantial war chest, with $8.7 million cash on hand compared to Gade’s $105,000 as of June 3. The race is rated Solid Democratic.
West Virginia: On June 9, incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito fended off two challengers to win the Republican primary with ease. She will face progressive Democratic candidate Paula Jean Swearengin, who previously challenged Democratic Senator Joe Manchin in 2018. Moore Capito has raised ten times more than Swearengin to date, raising over $4 million to Swearingen’s $400,000. The race is rated Solid Republican.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists two Democratic-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up as opposed to nine Republican-held seats. Inside Elections lists two Democratic-held seats and seven Republican-held seats up for grabs.

*MT-Daines (R) shifted from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

GOVERNORS

With COVID-19 cases increasing as states reopen, governors continue to work through their state’s response to the pandemic, and some are rethinking their reopening strategies. Governors across the country are also facing civil unrest and calls for police reform, and voters are looking to see how their governor responds to protests and demands for police accountability. As the November elections inch closer, police reform will be a central focus for the remaining campaign season.

Missouri: Governor Mike Parson has three opponents for the Republican primary on August 4, including State Representative Jim Neely, businessman Raleigh Ritter, and Saundra McDowell, former director of enforcement for the Missouri Secretary of State’s Securities Division and 2018 candidate for state auditor. On the Democratic side, State Auditor Nicole Galloway is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination in August among four other candidates. While Missouri is considered Likely Republican by Inside Elections, Parson received criticism early on for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. But Parson has the incumbency and fundraising advantages. He raised over $300,000 in April and has $1.4 million cash on hand, while Galloway raised $640,000 in April and has $1 million on hand. A June 10 poll showed Parson leading by 50 percent to 41 percent.
North Dakota: Dr. Shelley Lenz, a veterinarian and small business owner, was unopposed in the June primary and will be the Democratic nominee in the November election. Incumbent North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum won the Republican nomination with 89.9 percent of the vote. The state is rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, and Burgum is expected to win re-election in November.
Utah: Utah is one of two open races in 2020, along with Montana, with incumbent Republican Governor Gary Herbert not seeking re-election. Utah’s Democratic nominee Chris Peterson was chosen at the party convention in April. Lt. Governor Spencer Cox will be the Republican nominee with 36.4 percent of the vote over former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman with 34.6 percent. The Republican primary, which was held on June 30 and conducted entirely by mail, was called earlier this week.
Vermont: Republican Governor Phil Scott faces four candidates in the state’s primary election on August 11. The Democratic primary race consists of four candidates, including Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman and former Vermont Secretary of Education Rebecca Holcombe. In recent polls, Scott has an average 38-point lead against Zuckerman and Holcombe.
Washington: Democratic Governor Jay Inslee is running for re-election in a jungle primary, where all candidates run regardless of party, with a record 35 other candidates. After an unsuccessful presidential run focusing on climate change, Inslee remains popular in Washington with a May poll showing his approval rating at 67 percent. Polls show Inslee with an average 25-point lead in the general election against four different Republican challengers.
West Virginia: Incumbent Governor Jim Justice, who ran in his first election as a Democrat, won the Republican nomination with 63 percent of the vote. Ben Salango, former Kanawha County Commissioner, won the Democratic primary with 38.9 percent of the vote. Justice is increasingly popular with West Virginia Republicans since changing party affiliation in 2017 and is expected to win in November.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists two Democratic-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists one Republican-held seat and two Democratic-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up.