According to the Guyana Elections Commission, the long-awaited recount of this country’s General and Regional Elections will be declared within the next four days. In fact, ballot boxes are being processed and results are being tabulated as this article is written. And although the results will bring some form of closure, the inflamed division that has characterised Guyana’s political discourse since Exxon Mobil (America’s largest oil company) discovered vast reserves of oil off the Guyanan coast looks set to continue.
These discoveries have the potential to transform Guyana’s fortunes. Just last year, Exxon claimed five of the six biggest oil finds, all in Guyanese waters. The current plan is to produce 750,000 barrels a day by 2025 just from Guyana. But, with painful inevitability, a complex web of domestic and foreign interests is now damaging a Guyanese society and democracy whose politics were already divided along ethnic lines.
Of the two major political parties, one represents the Afro-Guyanese population (the People’s National Congress) whilst the other draws its support base from those Guyanese of Indian descent (the People’s Progressive Party). With the prospect of oil money just around the corner, the national election in early March came to be centred on which political party would be in power to decide what to do with the cash. People became worried that a victory for the opposition would see their group left behind. “We’re an ethnically riven society” comments the country’s finance minister, “[and] it’s a rare incidence to see money bring people together”.
After the ruling PNC claimed victory and President David E. Granger was re-elected the country became swirled in controversy. The United States and the EU both got involved, claiming irregularities in the count. A recount was declared and now, four months later, the results are set to be released.
Preliminary data published by Guyana’s electoral commission suggests that opposition candidate Irfaan Ali has won a majority. This would be a turn out for the books for a man who has been charged with 19 counts of conspiracy and fraud by Guyana’s Special Organized Crime Unit. Question marks also remain about the legitimacy of his academic achievements.
Whether it is Ali or Granger, the incumbent President will have work to do as accusations of underhand play from Exxon grow louder. Spectators are worried that Exxon’s powerful transnational status has allowed it to outmuscle Guyana’s infrastructurally limited and inexperienced government. Indeed, one energy adviser to Granger during the negotiations with Exxon described Guyana not having any economic model. “Ministers didn’t ask for advice from oil and gas experts,” he said. “Exxon will take what it can get, everything it can get. And in terms of Guyana, the people are only beginning to realize what they have lost.” A London law firm has recently confirmed that Exxon hurried through the deal prior to detailing their drilling results in order to weaken Guyana’s position.
One hopes that the newly elected government will be able challenge Exxon whilst pushing for unification within its own population. However, when tackling the former it is unlikely they will receive much international support. Many expectant and greedy eyes are watching over Guyana’s political situation with oil money as the one thing on their mind.
The Guyanese government needs unbiased and expert guidance, a more transparent politics where investment plans are mapped out clearly, and assurances that no groups within society will be forgotten about. These are challenging demands and, at a time when colonialist legacies are starting to receive the attention they ought to, the discovery of oil in Guyana regrettably illustrates the unequal power structures that continue to shape local politics as well as our global economy.
