Super Tuesday and Beyond
By Roger Lau
I wanted to give you an update on where our campaign stands since my last memo earlier this month. Since Elizabeth’s historic debate performance in Nevada, we’ve seen an incredible burst of momentum and outpouring of grassroots support.
What I shared in my last memo remains the case: We expect Elizabeth to have a strong delegate performance on Super Tuesday, and see the race narrowing considerably once all the votes are counted.
Since the beginning of February, we’ve seen a record-breaking surge of grassroots support for Elizabeth. Leading up to the Nevada caucuses, we set an ambitious goal of raising $7 million — an unprecedented amount of money in that time period for our campaign. Our supporters blew us away, and the morning of the Nevada caucuses we announced we’d raised more than $14 million— or double our original goal. Our momentum hasn’t slowed since the Nevada debate, and we raised more in February alone than we have in any quarter to date (our biggest quarter was Q3 in 2019, when we raised more than $24.6 million).
Here are a few other key fundraising numbers that demonstrate the power — and persistence — of our grassroots movement:
- We finished the month of February raising more than $29 million, with an average gift of $31.
- We raised $2.8 million the day of the Nevada debate, more than any other Democratic candidate.
- We then raised more than $9.5 million from Wednesday through Friday that week, and saw our single best fundraising day of our campaign to date.
- We saw a surge of 250,000 first-time donors to our campaign in February.
- Our grassroots campaign is now more than 1,250,000 grassroots donors strong.
- Out of these donors, nearly half have given more than once, showing the dedication of our grassroots movement.
Deepening Our Paid Media Investments
Thanks to this outpouring of grassroots support, our campaign has been able to greatly increase our paid media investments in Super Tuesday states and beyond. In the past week, we’ve:
- Increased our Super Tuesday states media spending to more than $2.4 million in TV, digital, and traditional media spend.
- Made more than $4.1 million in paid media investments in every state that votes later in March, as well as Wisconsin.
- Invested more than $700,000 in radio, print, and mail to reach key Black, Latinx, AAPI, and Native American constituencies across the March voting states, including a six-figure investment in Black-owned radio stations.
We’ve already reserved media across key markets in Arizona, Illinois, and Georgia — and into Wisconsin, which finishes voting in April. We’re in this race for the long haul.
Super Tuesday and Beyond
We believe that Super Tuesday will greatly winnow this field and it will become clear that only a few candidates will have a viable path to the Democratic nomination — and Elizabeth Warren will be one of them.
Our internal projections continue to show Elizabeth winning delegates in nearly every state in play on Super Tuesday, and in a strong position to earn a sizable delegate haul coming out of the night.
But as the dust settles after March 3, the reality of this race will be clear: no candidate will likely have a path to the majority of delegates needed to win an outright claim to the Democratic nomination.
Super Tuesday is the first test in March to amass delegates, but a week later we will be competing in six states, and a week after that another four that represent over 500 delegates up for grabs. By the time all of California’s votes from mail-in ballots are counted, likely in mid-March, we will still only be halfway to the overall number of pledged delegates up for grabs.
From there we will be competing in contests in the rest of March: Georgia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Puerto Rico, and early April: Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Wisconsin. All of our 400 Super Tuesday organizing staffers will be re-deployed to states voting in March or April.
After Wisconsin nearly one-third of the pledged delegates will still be waiting to be elected, and there will be a three-week gap between electing delegates for the first time since voting began. In the road to the nomination, the Wisconsin primary is halftime, and the convention in Milwaukee is the final play.
Our grassroots campaign is built to compete in every state and territory and ultimately prevail at the national convention in Milwaukee.
Every dollar matters in powering our organization through this next phase of the Democratic primaries. If you’re ready for President Elizabeth Warren, chip in now and continue to expand our grassroots movement.