Firstly, it should be emphasized that the legalization debate isn’t over public health, morality, or social order. The issue is over profits to the state, police, and existing corporate interests.
The “Policing for Profit” enterprise vs. free-enterprise
On one hand…Logically, even as a misdemeanor marijuana serves as a ‘go-to-jail-free card’ that brings revenue to the state through fines, probation fees, and a multi-billion dollar civil forfeiture enterprise (Washington Post). The latter presents a conundrum for libertarian-leaning politicians. See Sen. Rand Paul’s FAIR Act in 2014 and 2017. Even the Conservative Heritage Foundation (pdf, 254k) has been opposed.
In 2016, 1 in 5 people were incarcerated for non-violent drug offenses, and over half of the total inmate population was on probation. (Prison Policy Initiative)
Marijuana prohibition incorporates additional externalities such as fulfilling prison contracts, higher alcohol sales, and higher dependency on prescription drugs— all of which are ongoing epidemics in America (over-incarceration, alcoholism, and opiate addiction).
In fact, unsurprisingly, anti-marijuana advocates include alcohol and pharmaceutical interests (The Guardian), as well as police and prison guard unions and private prison corporations (Opensecrets). These are the traditional gatekeepers blocking efforts to reform drug policy — and they are losing foothold.
On the other hand…Legalization has been a boon. In fairness, with only a few states having legalized recreational usage, it isn’t statistically certain that results are generalizable. However, here’s what we know so far:
— Overall, legal marijuana sales exceeded $5 billion in 2015 (CNBC) and $6.7 billion in 2016 (BusinessInsider).
— In Colorado alone, sales surpassed $1 billion, growing 30% in 2016 and national sales are expected to reach $20.2 billion by 2021. (MarketWatch) — In California, projections are similarly optimistic (CNN Money).
Translation: Legal marijuana has brought billions of dollars in consumer spending and tax revenue, which rivals the existing prohibition enterprise. Furthermore, public opinion strongly favors marijuana, while the Drug War and prohibition in general is viewed negatively.
Racists, like Jeff Sessions, like prohibition.
In 2001, the ACLU called the Drug War The New Jim Crow, suggesting that,
The number of black men in prison (792,000) has already equaled the number of men enslaved in 1820. With the current momentum of the drug war fueling an ever expanding prison-industrial complex, if current trends continue, only 15 years remain before the United States incarcerates as many African-American men as were forced into chattel bondage at slavery’s peak, in 1860.
Marijuana prohibition, specifically, has similar racist origins in the Nixon Administration (Huffington Post, CNN Politics).
However, some aspects of the Drug War, and perceptions of drug use in general, have evolved irrespective of the federal government’s position. For example, in contrast to the 1980’s crack epidemic, presently, when young White suburbanites abuse prescription opiates and become heroin addicts, it is considered a societal health issue, not criminal (New York Times, PBS Frontline). People are beginning to see the racist motives underpinning prohibition — just as was the case with alcohol prohibition nearly a century ago.
How Jeff Sessions can force Congress to legalize marijuana.
Despite the Trump Administration’s law-and-order rhetoric, President Trump has sent conflicting signals. In reality, any law-and-order politician should be supportive. After all, in Denver, teen marijuana usage is down — below the national average (ScientificAmerican), prescription overdoses are down (Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, DrugAbuse), crime has arguably decreased (VOA News), etc.
The legal marijuana ‘experiments’ in these “Laboratories of Democracy” have significantly benefited society in respective states. Yet, AG Sessions has announced his resolve to enforce federal law (BusinessInsider).
There are two main points to address here.
First, consider resources.
Colorado generated so much tax revenue that it nearly refunded taxpayers, who voted to instead fund education and infrastructure. Other legal states have raked in hundreds of millions in additional tax revenue (See figures in above links).
As more states implement and regulate marijuana regimes, and as these new markets yield increasingly lucrative profits, more elected representatives in those districts should be incentivized to ensure the continued prosperity of their constituencies. In other words, it becomes in their best interest to defend legal marijuana, if they want to get reelected.
Support for legalization should have a rational “trickle up” effect as members of Congress see the positive effects and lucrative profits in one another’s districts. Also, neighboring states bringing marijuana across state borders will burden law enforcement — or bolster its prohibition and prison enterprises. Game Theory clearly comes into play.
In this context, Sessions’ AG office constitutes a considerable threat to multi-billion dollar industries in legal states. The Supreme Court hasn’t explicitly ruled on conflicting state marijuana laws, leaving one to safely defer to the 10th Amendment. Remember, the Court avoided setting precedent when it refused to hear Oklahoma and Nebraska’s suit against Colorado (Denver Post).
Second, consider the U.S. public as a single constituency.
Assuming polling data accurately represent national public opinion, contrary to Jeff Sessions’s opinion, Americans across all party lines and demographics hold tolerant or favorable views of marijuana (especially millennials).
In late 2016, 60% supported legalization (Gallup), findings that the University of Chicago reproduced within the margin of error (Newsweek).
A February 2017 Quinnipiac University poll suggested that,
— 59% believe marijuana use should be made legal,
— 93% support medical marijuana (prescribed by a doctor), and
— 71% oppose the federal government enforcing prohibition in states where citizens voted to legalize recreational or medical marijuana.
As of 4/20/2017, CBS News replicated findings in the recent polling data, with respondents believing that marijuana should be legalized, is less dangerous than alcohol, and that legalization will lower crime.
Conclusion
With a supermajority of public opinion favoring marijuana, Jeff Sessions is, quite literally, on the wrong side of history. Congress and government officials are aware of this, as marijuana has garnered bipartisan support. Even Republicans are coming around.
In reality, for anyone to regard Reefer Madness as anything more serious than pure comedy is embarrassing — especially if that person leads the federal Attorney General’s office with a regard to such factitious, fallible assumptions that have long since been disproved.
If, citing its illegality, Jeff Sessions tries to take down the multi-billion dollar marijuana enterprise, then perhaps Congress will be motivated to legalize it instead.
