The virus has spread out of Hubei province, despite China's authoritarian attempts to lock it down. I can't imagine that any other country in the world will try as hard, so it should spread in other places.

The virus has already been detected in ~30 other countries. It seems to be spreading in Singapore, so a warm climate isn't likely to stop it. There might be some silently growing clusters in untested places like Indonesia.

What would stop the spread, at this point? It seems like a pandemic is inevitable.

The case fatality rate is hovering around 2%, with 10% or more in critical condition. Ultimately, those numbers could be lower (because minor cases and not being diagnosed) or higher (because health care systems could get overloaded if too many people get sick at the same time).

Say, half the world population gets infected at 1% CFR. 35 million deaths.

Permission to freak out, doc?