The Coin Angel Analysis — LBRY Credits $LBC

LBC is the token used to upload/purchase content or send tips, on the LBRY platform, which aims to serve as a peer-to-peer content sharing hub for the next generation internet. This article provides some insight into the fundamentals behind the project, as well as brief technical analysis.

Fundamental Analysis

LBRY.io is a free, decentralised, community-run digital marketplace for content. It is lead by Jeremy Kauffman (former founder and CEO of TopScore) and lists team of 16, with 4 advisors.

Often described as “Decentralised Youtube” the platform allows content creators to upload digital files in the form of Videos, Images, Music, E-books, Games, Software plug-ins, 3d-printing files and well pretty much anything.

“ The content is encrypted by its publisher, then cut apart and distributed to a decentralised network of host servers. LBRY hosts do not know the content of the encrypted files they store, and nobody can access the complete content without the publisher’s unique decryption key. The publisher can exchange the key for a specified number of LBC— a cryptocurrency native to the LBRY protocol.”

As of the time of writing, 152 million of a 527 million coin total supply is circulating. Eventually, 1,000,000,000 LBC will exist, according to a defined schedule over 20 years. The blockchain uses a proof-of-work (POW) consensus method, meaning blocks are validated via mining and miners are rewarded with LBC. Further explanation of POW and its comparison to proof-of-stake (POS), can be found at bravenewcoin.com.

The LBRY project did not complete an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) for LBC Credits, instead, the allocation was as follows:

10% for organisations, charities, and other strategic partners. Organisations like the EFF, ACLU, and others that have fought for digital rights.

20% for adoption programs, in order to encourage participation. We will also look to award credits broadly, ensuring the marketplace is egalitarian.

10% for operational costs and profit.

60% earned by LBRY users, via mining.

The top 500 wallets listed on the block-explorer, each hold over $19,000 worth of LBC, with the top 5 wallets controlling 81.85% of the supply.

The majority of LBC/BTC volume is traded on Bittrex (which currently has new account submissions closed), followed by Upbit, Cryptopia and the recently acquired Poloniex. The daily trading volume fluctuates between $1 million and $3 million with occasional spikes as high as $12 million.

Sourced from coinmarketcap.com

The potential scale of this concept is prodigious, however, the general public seldom realises the importance of privacy, security and the problems associated with centralised entities until it is often too late. Therefore for LBRY to be a success it is necessary that public sentiment shifts to caring about decentralisation, which will inevitably come with the rise of Bitcoin and the changing internet landscape.

Technical Analysis

This article references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

The LBC/BTC pair to date shows an almost perfect example of the famous (or infamous depending on your entry) “Wall Street Cheat Sheet”. Below is the comparison, with the key stages marked on the daily chart.

www.wallstcheatsheet.com

The obvious way to trade this scenario, which should be no surprise, is to buy low and sell high. Buy at Anger, Depression and Disbelief then sell at Belief, Thrill and Euphoria. This means going against what the majority sentiment is saying and requires a certain level of self-awareness and discipline.

These market cycles are easy to spot in hindsight but much harder to trade successfully during. Therefore, I have found it most effective to set buy limit orders ahead of time in accumulation zones (white boxes) and take profit orders on the way up at key horizontal resistance levels (red lines).

In this example, LBC started 2017 at an All Time Low (ATL) of 904 sats, made its way up to hit an All Time High (ATH) at 38,000 sats (I’ll let you work out the % increase), before retracing all the way back to finish the year at the significant accumulation zone.

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart we can see the recent downtrend looking like it found the bottom and a reversal has occurred.

The Ichimoku Cloud, using youtube.com/carpenoctom’s double settings shows a bullish T/K Cross on the 26th of February which lead to the price moving through the cloud before pulling back to bounce on the Kijun/Top of the cloud on the 4th of March.

The MACD, which measures divergences between moving averages, is showing the first signs of a bullish cross above the signal line which has previously caught 30%–40% moves.

A good entry might be to wait for a candle to close above the tested horizontal resistance.

To Conclude

In my opinion, LBRY is at an exciting stage in its development and as one of only a handful of projects with a live product - the fundamentals are attracting.

As the world wakes up to the importance of decentralisation consumers will look for alternatives to current platforms and if LBRY can overcome the growing pains and attract content creators to the platform it has a great shot at becoming the go-to content exchanging platform.

Technical indicators appear to show that a bottom has been found and are now pointing bullish. It will be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out relative to other similar looking ALTs that look poised to head into the Hope phase.

I welcome any discussion/criticism on all my posts, please let me know what you think in the comments or @TheCoinAngel on Twitter.

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Revolutionising art on the blockchain - Pepedapp. Twitter:@TheCoinAngel