Anticipating The 2020 Bitcoin Halving Rally
While the price of Bitcoin has been a bit of a disappointment in 2019, Bitcoin’s halving in May could spike the price.
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Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a ‘ halving ‘ whereby the amount of BTC’s daily supply is cut in half. Also, the mining rewards for validating and securing each block of transactions on the bitcoin network is cut in half.
In the past, bitcoin’s halving has proved to be a major indicator of extraordinary upward price movements. In reality, it was one of the biggest drivers of demand for bitcoin, and in May 2020 it could lead to yet another breakthrough moment for the entire cryptocurrency space.
When Bitcoin began, the reward for each mined block was 50 BTC. It was then cut to 25 BTC in 2012, then to 12.5 BTC in 2016. The third bitcoin halving will reduce block rewards to 6.25 BTC.
The event is expected to trigger the start of a long bull market as supply or bitcoins decrease. In previous cycles, bitcoin surged to new highs sometime between 12 to 18 months later.
First Bitcoin Halving — Nov 28, 2012
The price of bitcoin increased from $7.11 to $12.22 (+71.87%) in the 140 days prior, then up to $1178 (+9539.93%) in the following 368 days.
Second Bitcoin Halving — July 9, 2016
The price of bitcoin increased from $250 to $657.61(+163.04%) in the 234 days prior, then up to $19,800 (+2910.9%) in the following 525 days.
Third Bitcoin Halving — May TBD, 2020
Based on this trend, it would not be absurd to predict the next bull market to begin earlier than 234 days before the halving, with an increase of over 163% by May 14, 2020, then an additional increase of less than 3000%, and end sometime after 525 days later.
So, how to know when a bull market is ready to begin?
Personally, I think the early stage of the next bull market has already begun, however, my opinions are not intended to offer any investment advice.
But, before making a decision involving any type of risk investment, you should first have a full understanding of bitcoin’s price has proved extremely difficult to predict due to its unpredictable volatile nature and the many outside influences effect its price.
There are several other factors to consider when attempting to predict an increase in the price of Bitcoin. For example:
- The network’s influence before and after a bitcoin halving;
- The positive and negative influence of the media;
- The evolving influence of global, institutional, and regulatory awareness.
So, if you’re wondering when to risk investing in the bitcoin markets, you should do so either before or at the very beginning of a bull market price surge, which usually begins sometime within a year prior to a bitcoin halving, once every 4 years.
