Before the storm

The Ethical Officer
Sep 8, 2018 · 3 min read

Tomorrow the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (RMAS) will open its gates to the new intake of cadets on Commissioning Course 183. During the next eleven months we will learn the fundamentals of soldiering, study the laws of armed conflict, and develop into future leaders — junior officers in the British Army.

It is an exciting time to be joining the British Army. Firstly, the physical training instructors (PTIs) have just redeveloped the fitness regime, which will now focus on conditioning the all-round athlete, as opposed to the 1.5 mile ‘dash’ and 2 minutes of frantic sit-ups! Secondly, tablet computers and fitbits are two examples of how the military has reappraised its teaching methods and learning environment. This will guarantee cadets at least some decent sleep (hugely beneficial to our physical and mental development, as recently laid out in Matthew Walker’s excellent book ‘Why We Sleep’), whilst such interactive learning techniques will maximise information retention. Finally, after years of bloody guerrilla combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, and years of nonintervention in war-savaged Syria, no one really knows what a future conflict might look like...

This blog will share one cadet’s experience of Sandhurst in 2018. Names will be changed and sensitive information excluded, but otherwise a blog as objective as possible, with all the highs and all the lows of any new job! Above all, this blog will pose the following question:

How much thought, if any, is the British Army giving to the impact of climate change on future conflict?

Every year the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds the ‘Shangri-La Dialogue’ (an annual gathering of Asia-Pacific defence ministers, military and civilian staff). Just as in previous years, the security risk of climate change dominated the agenda. For example, Philip Barton (Director-General, Consular and Security, Foreign and Commonwealth Office) highlighted the importance of mitigating against catastrophic (climate) events with relief coordination planning. Florence Parly (Minister of the Armed Forces, France) said:

“Faced with so many gathering clouds, only a patient, collective, yes, a selfless effort, can rein in the passions, prove Thucydides wrong, uphold rules, disarm the climate,” Florence Parly

Since 2011 the Syrian conflict has dominated the news. When discussing the causes of this war, most people will refer to the Arab Spring when largely peaceful pro-democracy protests were ruthlessly crushed by President Bashar-al-Assad. However, not many people are aware that from 2006–11 Syria suffered “the worst long-term drought and most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent many millennia ago.” A combination of catastrophic mis-management by the Syrian state and the impact of climate change caused successive crop failures, which provoked massive urban migration in Syria.

“Climate change is moving faster than we are.” António Guterres, 1 January 2018.

According to the Munich Security Report 2018, there is a positive correlation between climate change and higher levels of violent conflict. In other words, whilst climate change is by no means the only cause of a potential future conflict, future military strategy must accommodate for ‘disarming the climate’.

Primarily this blog will offer an insider’s perspective on life as an officer cadet at RMAS. Secondly, I want to understand how seriously the British Army is addressing the threat of climate change. If the British Army really is serious about conflict prevention and humanitarian support, the impact of global warming must represent a core tenet of future military strategy.

The Ethical Officer

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How will climate change dictate the future of conflict? One officer cadet exploring this debate, sharing lessons on leadership, and more…

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