So what happens now?

What follows the last few days of political upheaval? As things are moving so fast, it is interesting to try to write them down and piece them together, with the confident knowledge that an essay like this will soon be out of date.

I have two takes on this situation. Firstly, will we invoke Article 50 and leave the EU? Secondly, what will happen politically?

I do not think the UK will leave the EU.

The economic damage that unfolded in the days after the referendum results begin to form a basis of evidence to use in an anti-Leave argument. This is no longer about different opinions, it is about facts. The electorate aside, which politician would knowingly choose to pursue a route that throws the UK into a prolonged recession? Secondly, which politician would knowingly break up the Union?

It appears clear now that Johnson and Gove are starting to understand this. Cameron does, which is why he’s resigned rather than pushing the button on Article 50. Gove and Johnson have started saying there’s no hurry, and maybe we invoke Article 50 in a year or so. Pushing that button is increasingly like pushing the button in a nuclear strike — nobody wants to take responsibility for the final decision.

It has also become clear that the core arguments used by Farage and others to persuade people to leave were untrue. Most of us who did not vote Leave knew that, but the people who voted with their gut rather than their brain are now finding that the NHS will not be £350m better off and immigration won’t be stopped. They were manipulated and lied to.

It is interesting that this referendum had no legally binding obligation built into the wording. This has not been so picked up on by commentators . It could have been legally binding, but Cameron clearly chose to avoid that risk. So it is nothing more than an expressed opinion.

It seems unlikely that Article 50 could be invoked without involving Parliament. This would fly in the face of Leave leaders saying we want our parliamentary control back. I could seriously imagine that if a PM unilaterally triggered Article 50 without the backing of Parliament it would lead to the worst civic unrest this country has seen, short (maybe) of an actual civil war. In the minds of most people the future of the country is at stake, which is far more serious than the issues that triggered the Poll Tax riots. Any PM invoking Article 50 without involving Parliament, even if they have the legal right (which some think they have), would be removed from office.

Parliament is against Leave. Furthermore, I think enough parliamentarians believe they are obliged to act in the greater interest of the country. The financial reaction to the vote — ie. the Economists were right — makes it hard to argue that furthering the country’s economic decline is not its best interests, regardless of an advisory Referendum outcome.

So, what will happen next?

There are some interesting political implications. Firstly, the Liberal Democrats have already come out saying they will stand in an election on a Remain ticket. They beat Labour to it (see my previous post on this). The Liberals barely exist politically so they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. This was a clever move.

Labour will most likely remove Jeremy Corbyn. His replacement could, for example, be Stephen Kinnock or Kier Starmer. Kinnock has the advantage of an association with his father, who many Corbynites may hark back to as ‘real’ Labour. He is also untainted by having served under Blair. Starmer is untainted by a political past (pro), is part of the establishment (con), but has the sort of intellect and moral standing needed to pull this off.

Labour then needs to say it will stand in an election on a Remain ticket, over-riding the referendum. If they agreed with the Liberal Democrats to form a pro-Europe coalition, then the Remain electorate will be able to vote strategically to remove the Leave candidates. This sort of strategic voting against a party is what led to the massive majority that brought an end to Major’s government.

The danger of Labour not agreeing to cooperate with the Liberals will be to split what will be an anti-Tory vote, risking the pro-Leave Tories of Boris Johnson winning by a narrow margin, and a large majority of people not voting for them (as has happened before). This will require the Liberal Democrats and Labour putting away their old fashioned politics in favour of a new type of pragmatism — it is their job to save the country now.

Meanwhile, I like the opinion that Cameron stood down in order to check-mate Boris Johnson. Boris now has three options, and is damned either way. He can become PM and invoke Article 50, destroying the Union and the economy. He can become PM and not invoke it, thus appearing a traitor to all who backed him. Or he does not become PM, thus losing his life-long battle for the Premiership.

What will happen next is a bloody fight within the Conservative party as they narrow down a list of leadership candidates to Boris and one other. Their problem is that if Boris is not one of them, they anger their party membership but if Boris is on the list, he will win the leadership. The Conservatives have the same problem as Labour now: the parliamentary party hate the candidate most popular with their membership.

Once Boris becomes Prime Minister he will need to call an election in order to get a real mandate to rule. Otherwise he is an un-elected PM potentially exercising a referendum mandate voted through by a minority of people in the country. If he doesn’t trigger the vote of no confidence needed to call an election before the end of the 5 year fixed term, then Labour — and possibly other Tories — will.

He will no doubt run an election campaign based on Leave. He rather has to. This will then play out the second half of the strategy outlined above, leading to a general election based around a single issue: Europe.

Politics versus an idea

The referendum was fought around a single idea. This crossed party lines. In an election people vote according to more complex political beliefs and ideals. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will have to find the discipline to bury ideologies and focus on two things. The first will be Remain. The second has to be reuniting the country and rebalancing power. This is their natural territory anyway, but they will need to approach it practically not emotionally.

The Map

Historians will write books about this map.

The map shows that the politicians in Westminster have failed to serve the whole population. People who do not live around the elite (London, Oxford, Bristol), have experienced more of the austerity and less of the economic growth. They clearly feel they cannot influence Westminster, even in elections, and they are unaware of how Europe has impacted their lives because Europe has failed to speak to them at all.

It is significant that, effectively, the areas that have voted Leave are the ones to have received the most EU funds. EU funds are most focussed on deprived areas. Deprived areas have the most people who are disenfranchised, uneducated, and uninformed. They are most likely to be angry about immigration, and most likely to feel let down by the people they voted for — whoever they were. The system has failed. This map should haunt all leading politicians of the last decades for the rest of time. It reveals a reality that has remained hidden until Cameron’s referendum lifted the rock up and found a festering mess underneath it. Our society is badly broken. This sort of long term, massive, social divide led to the French Revolution, Russian Revolution, and the Nazis. See recent evidence of this movement already starting.

So a successful Labour-Liberal pro-Europe government has to focus on healing these divides really fast. This requires practical policies, listening to economists and experts, and avoiding policies built on ideology rather than knowledge and experience.

What about Scotland?

Scotland has a simple problem. If they leave the UK and try to join the EU, they will have to join the Euro. That is unlikely to be popular. This could explain the SNP’s slight about turn over 48 hours from ‘definitely leaving the UK’ to trying to help the UK not leave the EU. As ever, it’s all in the detail. If the UK did leave the EU, and Scotland left the UK to join the EU, it could be an incredible opportunity for Scotland. It becomes the English speaking EU country within commuting distance from London. It has, by the way, become an incredibly open and liberal place, just as the UK is becoming the opposite. Both of Scotland’s political leaders are openly gay. They have handled their politics with grace and wisdom, and are being the responsible, nice, part of the UK. Since writing, Sturgeon has shown she is the only effective leader in UK politics, so perhaps in fact we could have an SNP led UK government next?

Edinburgh is a nice place, apart from the cold dark winters. They could come out the winners, apart from that darned Euro. So if the EU insists Scotland adopts the Euro, perhaps Scotland will decide instead to support my fantasy Labour-Liberal pro European election bid and keep the Union together and in Europe.

Conclusion?

Labour and the Liberal Democrats could trigger an election and win it resoundingly. The SNP could support them, creating a three party pro-European grand coalition versus Johnson’s pro-Leave Conservatives. The election would be fought over a single issue, changing the political landscape completely, as people vote in what would effectively be a legally binding second round of the referendum. Those Leave voters who are humiliating themselves for all of time by being interviewed saying they didn’t mean it, and had no idea Leave might win, will all change sides. The pro-Remain parties will have a much easier time arguing their case now they would have real economic data showing the damage Leave has already started doing to the country.

The danger with all of this is that it looks like it will play out over the coming 6–12 months. For the sake of the country it needs to happen now. It is massively irresponsible for Cameron to resign in a few months, rather than immediately. Parliament will sit from June 27th to July 21st, then go ho holiday until September 5th. Our economy will continue to fall apart over the summer. Nobody will make any long term investment into the UK, or any major decisions in any business context until it is clear what is happening. So our economy just sits and rots until politics returns from its vacation. We have had our credit rating downgraded for a reason.

I am curious to see if something happens to speed this up. Parliament cannot issue a vote of no confidence while it is shut. Could something trigger a recall of Parliament over the summer? Tuesday’s pro-Remain protest in London may well do so. If pro-Leave protestors also choose to take to the streets, it’s hard to see how that would remain peaceful. Possibly street battles could lead to the recall of Parliament. We will see. Things are moving so fast it is hard to predict.

Like me, a new generation of people have become political, outspoken, and angry overnight. Our political landscape has been changed by a massive earthquake. When the dust settles, the streets will not look the same. The politicians of the future are the ones who understand this and can work with it.

The risk of all this failing is far greater than the UK. If I am wrong, then the UK leaves the EU, Scotland leaves the UK, Northern Ireland joins Ireland, triggering a new war with the Loyalists. People and businesses will flee London for Scotland and mainland Europe. The poor and dispossessed, who voted for this, will become more poor and dispossessed, eventually giving up on their leaders and resorting to… well, what? (see: history).

Meanwhile, the problem that is bigger than the UK will be Marine le Pen, and a whole raft of political leaders we haven’t yet heard about making all the upcoming elections about leaving the EU. The EU will start to fall apart. This will empower those who need an unstable Europe to run about causing havoc around the world — Putin, ISIL, North Korea, and many more.

Let’s hope someone is thinking along these lines then.