Strong Party ; Weak Leader: The Myth of Jyotiraditya Scindia’s Popularity Demystified
Gwalior-Chambal Region with its Intricacies.
In Madhya Pradesh’s Gwalior-Chambal region, the Congress party has consistently outperformed the BJP by a margin of 1.5%, considering the average vote share from all elections since 2008, including by-elections.[1] This unique trend, not seen in other regions, establishes Congress as the dominant party in Gwalior-Chambal region, and it can be said that, as Congress is a dominant party in this region [2] and any leader associated with the party from this region became a strong leader in this region. Not much doubt can be ascribed to this fact. So Jyotiraditya Scindia, until the time he was in Congress, was a powerful leader from the region.
In the Gwalior-Chambal region, the BJP is weaker than Congress. When a strong regional leader joins a weaker party, one of two outcomes may occur: either the leader strengthens the party, or the weak party diminishes the leader. In Jyotiraditya Scindia’s case, the latter has happened — as evidenced by the by-election (November 2020) results, the weaker BJP dampened his power. If the BJP continues to lag in the upcoming assembly election, from this region, it will confirm this assertion of weakness. However, if the BJP prevails, many will claim credit for good results. For now, Scindia must either seek other political opportunities to demonstrate strength or wait to disprove criticisms of his declining influence.
In this context, the voter turnout ratio is a reliable predictor for election outcomes. Deviations from the norm suggest possible outcomes: a higher-than-usual turnout typically benefits the Congress as increased participation in the region is often linked to the dominant party in the region. Conversely, a lower turnout tends to favor the BJP.
According to the table data, the Gwalior-Chambal region consistently records low voter turnout in the state. It has ranked at the bottom in terms of turnout in the 2008, 2013, and 2018 elections.
To analyze the current election trends, it’s crucial to check if the Gwalior-Chambal region still has the lowest turnout ratio and to assess the percentage increase in turnout. As noticed, there is a smooth 3% increase in turnout each election. Also, observe the difference in voter turnout between the overall state and this region, which previously stood at around 5%. These subtle data points are key in forecasting electoral trends in the region.
Upon analyzing the 2023 turnout ratio, it was observed that the region’s turnout was 72.8%, while the overall state turnout stood at 77.2%. Although this maintains the historical difference of 5% (mostly), it shows a decrease in increments, from previous election trend which was a 3% increment, every election year, evident from the table above. This trend is unfavorable for the Congress and advantageous for the BJP, considering the region is Congress stronghold. However due to various factions switching sides, it can get more nuanced than this, but in a larger context the hypothesis will hold.
Some more insights for Gwalior-Chambal Region:
Raghogarh saw the largest voter turnout increase, from 77% to 82%, in a region with an otherwise modest 1.8% rise. Jai Vardhan Singh, Digvijaya Singh’s son and a prominent Congress candidate, is competing from his stronghold, a constituency regarded as a stronghold for the Congress.
Shivpuri experienced a 4% increase in voter turnout, consistent with the 3% rise seen in 2018. K P Singh is contesting from Shivpuri, leaving his traditional constituency, Pichore.
Pichore saw a substantial 7% voter turnout increase in 2018, but this time the rise is marginal, possibly due to the already high turnout of around 85%, which makes further increases challenging. Notably, KP Singh won by just over 2000 votes in 2018, which may explain his shift from Pichore to Shivpuri. Pichore stands out for having the highest voter turnout in the region since 2003.
Lahar has a 4% jump in voter turnout% in this election while it witnessed a 1.7% decrease in 2018. Congress strongman Govind Singh won the seat in 2018.
Gwalior Rural is on tear and witnessed a 4.5% turnout increase on the back of 7% increase in 2018.
Dabra witnesses a consistent increase of 3.5% in 2018 and 2023.
Bhnader, Kolaras, & Gwalior-South witnessed an increasing trend of rising turnout, consistently.
Chachoura, after witnessing a near 7% increase in 2018 (voter turnout ) , witnessed a mere .8% increase in turnout. Laxman Singh, brother of Digvijaya Singh is contesting from here. He won last time by a margin of around 10,000 votes.
Gwalior-East & Joura saw an increased turnout of around 3.5% in 2018, witnessed a decrease in turnout by 1% and 2% respectively.
Dimani which saw a 5% increase in 2018 saw a near 4.5% decrease this time around in voter turnout. Narendra Singh Tomar the BJP strongman and a powerful central minister is contesting from here.
The full data is presented here for more insights:
[1]: The tweet explaining more is here👇 https://x.com/thepolitics_in/status/1725391084350828968?s=20
[2]: Here is a table that shows various regions’ Long Term Vote Share Averages. 👇
