It’s a Small Sample Size But…(Part 2)
Welcome to the part 2 of “It’s a Small Sample Size but…” where we (and we means I this context) look at some of the trends of the infant NBA season. Enjoy!
1. Mavericks are hanging by a thread
Only six players drafted in the 1990s are currently employed in the NBA. How does that make you feel? Do you feel old? Nostalgic? Sad? Or a cocktail of those emotions? Of that group (which includes Jason Terry, Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Manu Ginobili and Metta World Peace) only Dirk was making any significant contribution to a team till the end of last season. But it’s also disheartening that ever since Nash left him for the Suns and father-time consumed Michael Finley, he’s been tagged along with a bunch of journeymen. And after 13 All-Star appearances, one MVP and two trips to the NBA Finals to go along with one ring later, this might be it for the Big German. He’s been injured to start the season with and has featured in only three games so far. For the first time in years, the Mavs don’t know what they are getting from him.
Signing Harrison Barnes to that lucrative four-year, $94 million contract signaled the change of guard. He crapped the bed in the pre-season, but his performance in the early going has left even the most optimistic Mavs fan drooling. His PPG has doubled from last season on surprisingly efficient shooting, even though he’s still ice-cold from the 3-point line. But that’s what happens when you make the jump from “the guy standing in the corner waiting for an open 3-pointer” to “the guy who’s the first, the second and the third option of the team”. The irony is, no matter how good Barnes is, people will blame him for Mavs struggle just like they blamed him (and rightfully so) for the Warriors’ loss in the Finals loss four months ago. What they might fail to see is the supporting cast around him. Bogut will turn 32 by the end of his month (Happy Birthday mate!) and hasn’t cranked out a 70+ games season since his third year in the league and hasn’t played more than 30 minutes per game four seasons ago when he was part of the Bucks from Milwaukee. So he will miss his set of games from Bogut-itis. Ditto with Deron Williams who last churned out a 70+ games season three years ago, when people still thought that he was Chris Paul’s equal (oh the good old days of CP3 and Deron William’s rivalry). Wesley Matthews has never looked the same ever since his Achilles snapped in half during the 2014–15 season. He’s shooting career-worst 29.2% from downtown while lodging the highest minutes per game of his career (that statement just doesn’t sound right to me. I’m worried). I almost forgot about Chandler Parsons, and I think so did you.
They are 2–7 right now and eight of their next eleven games are against the Grizzlies, Spurs (twice), Clippers, Cavs, Bulls and Hornets (twice). By the end of this brutal stretch, they could be 5–15, and that’ll mean game over. There’s always the possibility of Carlisle figuring out yet another way of keeping this group afloat by coming up with something from his laboratory. But there’s only so far you can go on J J Barea’s floaters. The window is closing on the Dirk era with every passing second, with every passing game. And it’s narrower than it has ever been.
2. Baby Lakers are fun
Speaking of windows, here’s a team whose window of opportunity is widening with every passing game. But it wasn’t easy to come by. The Lakers sacrificed a year of development of their young guns just so the fans can enjoy Bryant clanking 30 shots per game off the rim. Now that Bryant has made peace with his basketball mortality and Luke “the fun” Walton has replaced Byron “no threes, only long twos” Scott, it is fun to watch the boys in purple and gold play again. Gone are the days of players standing around and watching Kobe dribble, dribble, dribble and even more dribble till the end of the shot clock and chuck a contested fade-away jumper. Walton injected the team with the fun, run-n-gun and pass-happy mentality which he carried over from his days in the Bay Area.
Statistically, none of the individual players have made a major jump, but the on-court product is light years ahead of the travesty that we witnessed the last two years. D’Angelo Russell looks every bit of the second pick in last year’s draft, with the spaced floor allowing him to showcase his full repertoire of skills. Another guy who has benefited the most from the new system is Julius Randle. He’s everything you don’t want from your modern big, he doesn’t shoot threes and isn’t a rim protector, basically anti-Draymond Green (he also have an affinity of opposing players crotch like Draymond). But the one thing he does share with him is his passing ability. The spacing has allowed him to beat plodding big-men to the baskets and find his teammates on cuts and for wide-open 3-pointers. Nick Young is finally making positive contributions to a basketball team and is trying damn hard on defense. I don’t know what dark magic did Walton come up with, but I want to buy and patent it. You just can’t make the self-proclaimed Swaggy P try hard on defense. You just can’t.
This doesn’t mean that the team will crack into the playoffs. Defensively they swing between “passable” to “allowing the Nets to score 118 points”. And there’s only so far the combined 57 years of Mozgov and Deng can take you. A tough stretch of games await them and how they fare in the next 12 games will decide their destiny for the season. But no matter what the destiny is, the journey to it is fun and right now, that’s all that counts.
3. Never too Late to the Party
Two number nine picks in drafts set two years apart. Two players who were knocked on by the critics, by the fans (raises his hand) and by the guy selling hot-dog on a busy New York City street. Two players who just didn’t fit the stereotypical narrative of their respective positions. Kemba Walker and DeMar DeRozan, two players with ever so similar narrative but who couldn’t be farther apart on the basketball court. Layups and three-point shots, that’s what the NBA is all about now. While Kemba just wasn’t good enough at it, DeRozan did the exact opposite i.e. shoot the tough, contested mid-range shots. But years down the line, they are the heads of their respective snakes. So what changed?
Umm, nothing much. Kemba just worked his ass off, got better every year and transformed himself into the Eastern Damian Lillard.
Year 1: 12.1 PPG, 36.6 FG%, 30.5 3P% and 3.2 FTA
Year 2: 17.7–42.3%-32.2%-4.5
Year 3: 17.7–39.3%-33.3%-4.6
Year 4: 17.3–38.5%-30.4%-4.6
Year 5: 20.9–42.7%-37.1%-5.4
Year 6: 25.8–49.1%-47.8%-6.3
See how he transformed himself from a guy who shot a horrendous 36.6% from the field in his rookie season to someone who converts now on half of his shots. An uptick in his 3P% to the Curry-esque level to go along with him doubling his FTA from his rookie season also speaks volumes about his work ethic. His four-year $48 million contract looks like peanuts in a league where Evan Turner who isn’t even a top 100 player is earning $70 million over the same period. He’s driving the Hornets bandwagon at full speed, and everybody is welcome aboard.
While Kemba got better at stuff the coaches and critics want you to be good at, DeRozan middle-fingered everybody and stayed true to his game. His games take you back to the 80s when teams were allergic to the three point line and chucked up one “inefficient” mid-range shot after another. But sticking to his game has helped him as he’s oozing with confidence right now. A mid-range pull-up on the break? No problem. A contested step back jumper? Swish! A fadeaway bank shot? Money! Since the turn of this century, only three other non-center players have scored more than 28 PPG while making less than 1 three-pointer per game: Iverson, Kobe and Carmelo (twice), with Iverson being the only one from that bunch who scored more than 30 PPG; and zero since in this decade.
In theory what he’s doing seems impossible to keep up or at least in an efficient manner. But no matter how long it lasts, take a moment and appreciate it. With the way the NBA is heading, you may not get many more chances to see a player dominate quite this way.
4. Timberwolves will be fine
Wait, wasn’t this team supposed to be a playoff lock with a realistic shot at the 4th seed?
Why are they so terrible defensively?
Will Ricky Rubio ever learn how to shoot?
Is Andrew Wiggins making it to the All-Star team this season?
How did Donald Trump become the president of the United States of America? And how do I get the hell out of this country?
Questions like these are bouncing around on the internet (and yes you are right, that’s how I spend most of the time, by sneaking through the dark valleys of the internet and unearthing such questions of such prime importance). And the answers to those questions are:
Yes and no.
Because they were Sam Mitchelled last year and it will take some time to weed out the old habits.
No.
Yes.
And I’m still trying to figure that out.
There’s no need to panic. No, actually there’s a slight need to panic. Clippers, Warriors and Spurs will be the top three seeds, Trailblazers and Jazz will join them in the mix. So that leaves you with Thunder, Grizzlies, Rockets and Timberwolves competing for the last three spots and Minnesota has the worst record of them all. Hmm.
On the other hand, they do have the best coach outside of the top three teams in the conference and two young studs on the verge of making the leap. But there are some legitimate issues to be ironed out. Rubio is still a non-factor on offense without the ball in his hand as defenders leave him wide open any time he’s on the floor. In the given situation Gorgui Dieng isn’t the perfect running mate for KAT, as Rubio and Dieng clog up the lane for him to work on the inside. What Towns need is a stretchy four, to space out the floor and who isn’t a sieve defensively. They do have the assets to make a trade and if Tyus Jones or Kris Dunn develop into what the Wolves are hoping them to be, Rubio could be on the move.
This doesn’t mean that the current talent is not enough to get them to the playoffs. This pack of wolves will develop and a year or two down the line they will be a championship contender. Parallels have been drawn to the young OKC squad of Westbrook, Durant and Harden which are legitimate. But just like OKC, they have to figure out the fifth guy. OKC never quite figured out the fifth guy. They gave crunch time minutes to Derek Fisher and the artist known as Kendrick Perkins and as a result, never got over the hump (this was also assisted by making the most boneheaded trade of the century by trading Harden to the Rockets because they couldn’t afford to pay the tax just once. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!). The Timberwolves aren’t quite there yet. But so far they’ve followed an eerily similar path of the Thunder. We can only hope that the ending isn’t the same.
5. Are Clippers for real?
Watching the Clippers is like being Tom Cruise in “Edge of Tomorrow.” He’s trapped in a time loop with Emily Blunt where he lives the same day again and again. Later in the movie, he reaches a point where he couldn’t get past a certain point, no matter how hard or what he tries. That’s the whole experience of watching the Clippers. You are stuck in this time loop with them where they make you believe at the start of every season that this is their year and when the post-season rolls around, one way or the other, fate low blows them out of the competition. And then the cycle starts again. No matter what you do, Clippers find a way to ensure that the time loop continues.
Yet, if you watch them closely this year, there’s a different vibe around the team. They are more focused and have a much sharper approach to the game. Yes, it’s the quartet of Paul, J J, DeAndre and Blake that’s at the core of all this (again). Paul is still one of the top-5 players in the league, with J J raining fire from behind the arc, Blake looking like Blake who finished third in the MVP voting, and Jordan manning the paint and dunking anything within 5 miles of the rim, they are at it again. They were always pristine offensively; it’s the defense where they have picked up the slack over the last couple of seasons. Their bench too has finally upgraded from “Let’s dump the ball to Crawford and let him do his dance” to “We have some good players so let’s get everybody involved.”
And you know what, they are making us believe again. The weird thing is, despite falling for the same trap, it feels like this is it. Either the Clips will make it past the second round for the first time in franchise history or CP3, J J and/or Blake could all walk away in free agency. No matter what the result is, the time loop that we’ve all been trapped in is going to end, and the basketball community will be free again.
