Breeders’ Cup Saturday
Our final three races of our 2018 contest are upon us and wow what a long strange trip it’s been. We’ll post a recap of the year after these races finish to fill you in, but for now- it’s BREEDERS’ CUP TIME!
Since the fields for the Dirt Mile, Distaff, and Classic are all pretty large, we’re not going to waste much time breaking down the field. To keep things simple we will just mention the top contenders, how it’s going to play out in our eyes, and most important of all- how to make some money! Here we go!
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Race 5)
The Contenders:
City of Light — 25% Win Chance
Firenze Fire, Seeking the Soul, and Giant Expectations — 18.5%
Catalina Cruiser — 12.5%
The Field — 7%
How it will play out:
City of Light should have no trouble making the front and setting the pace in front of a more stretched out field. It’s a 1-turn mile so there won’t be must jostling for position to begin. Catalina Cruiser’s post though does slightly hurt as she’ll need to loop a field who isn’t tucking under. The three 18.5%’s can all close with the best of them and if they get a clear shot at City of Light, they MAY just pass him- but I just don’t see it.
How to make money:
With so many proven horses in this race there won’t be any heavy favorite on the betting lines, so taking a stab at a win for the front runner of the group, City of Light, it a really good bet. Also singling him with the closers in an Exacta should pay dividends. A slight hedge is having a closer beat City of Light as, with the exception of Firenze Fire, they should all have pretty high odds. Catalina Cruiser you can leave off the ticket as his romping wins haven’t actually showed a ton of ELITE speed and he’ll have a lot of work to do.
(check the twitter @TheSportsTri for full ticket)
Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff
The Contenders:
Abel Tasman — 35% Win Chance
Wow Cat — 25%
Monomoy Girl — 15%
Verve’s Tale — 7.5%
The Field — 17.5%
How it will play out:
Abel Tasman is the cream of the crop here and SHOULD prove it with relative ease. She’ll have the perfect setup for her style with the only real threat being the South American Wow Cat when it comes to overall speed. The 3-yr old crop of fillies has been exciting to watch all year and Monomoy Girl was dominant using different styles, however we don’t think, and it KILLS US TO SAY THIS, but her top speed just isn’t on par with the aforementioned two above. Midnight Bisou is a great 1m 1/16 horse, but past that causes issues. Verve’s Tale has shown crazy closing speed and stands a shot if there’s a pace meltdown or if Abel Tasman goes all Zenyatta Stakes on us again. The rest of the field just doesn’t have the speed.
How to make money:
This one is one of the toughest for us to actually make money on. We consider “beating the stock market” (ROI above 10–12%) the bar for success. With that in mind we also know that Abel Tasman and Monomoy Girl are going to take a HUGE chunk of the money bet at the windows. In this situation you either have to go HARD and all-in on just those two (if you truly think they will finish 1–2) or you have to be willing to put a longer shot in the 1-spot and see what happens. This is not a race to hedge bets in our mind, you’ll probably just wind up with a net-loss if so.
(Again our picks are on Twitter @TheSportsTri)
The Breeders’ Cup Classic
The Contenders:
Thunder Snow — 25% Win Chance
West Coast — 18.5%
Mind Your Biscuits — 10%
Catholic Boy and Accelerate — 7.5%
The Field — 31.5%
How it will play out:
Holy Smokes! First off, the field with a 31.5% win chance? Yes, this race is WIDE OPEN with a lot of money to be made. It’s a very talented field and there really isn’t a huge gap from the favorites to the longshots. Thunder Snow should be taking the lead in this one with Mendelssohn pressing him along the way (this is how Mendelssohn has had success, he’s not good from off the pace). West Coast is one of the most perfect stalkers since I’ll Have Another, and will comfortably find his slot right behind along with a hard working Accelerate. After that, chaos as the closers don’t want to fall too far back and dirt will be flyin’. Thunder Snow should have a dream trip, West Coast as well, they should be showing peak times- Mind Your Biscuits is a renegade and never disappoints… one of these three should win. The second part of the exacta though is ANYBODY’S guess.
How to make money:
We really don’t think there’s any way to go wrong betting this race, it’s so wide open that they’ll be value all over the place. SOB has a crazy exacta involving 8 different horses in the 2nd spot, while D-LO also decided to throw in the kitchen sink as well. It should be a ton of fun to watch and see how it actually unfolds.
