US Durable Goods data visualization
The latest data release charted and visualized, including an analysis
Monthly charts
Looking at the monthly charts here over the course of the last year and a half, we can see that durable goods orders as a total are in a relatively stable and consistent trend.
Quarterly chart
On the quarter, taking the incoming survey data that came in today, we can see that we’re about on track to come in target with 2024 Q2 — with Q3’s totals so far sitting at about 32% of total Q2 levels.
We’re also about 4.7% higher YoY on the US Totals here compared to July of 2023.
Yearly chart
Extrapolating the data here using the latest release, the US economy is seeing just under where we were at last year, down YoY roughly half a percent (-0.46%).
The state of the economy
Now in our tracking model, we have Non-Farm Payrolls (a coincident indicator) and Durable Goods (a leading indicator). We’re starting to paint a picture of the overall US economy on a macro level.
I’m glad to see that Durable Goods are still a productive measure this year so far, without seeing upwards momentum in inflation. In my opinion, the US is not heading into a recession — at least based on a goods/services based recession.
I am much more interested at the moment at monitoring the labor market. Because trends in labor can shift rather quickly when employment levels start to drop. It’s a little too early to say whether we’re heading towards a labor induced recession, but with all policy makers’ eyes on this metric, I believe we’re in a good place to limit any real harm in the markets.
