Video Analysis: Quantifying the Arm, Legs, and Mind of QB Kyler Murray

Even if he hadn’t been deciding which sport to play professionally, Kyler Murray would still be one of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s NFL draft. He’s a Tesla. He’s lightweight, quick, and he can do all the things the other quarterbacks can do. But he looks a little different and there are concerns that he might break down with too much use. So, how will this Heisman winner’s skills hold up in the NFL? To find out, I quantified his measurables — like arm strength, release time, and decision making — using video analysis software.

(Full games tracked: @ West Virginia, vs Texas, vs Alabama. Select plays tracked: vs Baylor, vs UCLA, vs Florida Atlantic, @ Iowa State, vs Army)

Arm Strength

For an athlete his size, Murray’s arm strength is amazing. On his hardest throws, he can launch the ball at about 57 miles per hour. That gives him a stronger arm, coming out of college, than QBs like Sam Darnold (56.5 MPH ) and Mitchell Trubisky (56 MPH). Some of the bigger arms I tracked when they came out of college include Carson Wentz (59 MPH), Jared Goff (60 MPH), and, of course, the human JUGS machine, Josh Allen (64 MPH).

Watching Murray sling the football kind of reminds me of the Houston Astros’ 5-foot 6-inch José Altuve swinging for the fences. There’s a certain violence with which both players rotate their hips. And it’s quite possible that Murray’s wicked hip rotation is a product of his baseball experience. Studies have shown that, compared to unskilled baseball players, skilled hitters exhibit greater pelvic velocity during their swing.

Murray’s hips rotate at an average angular velocity of about 550 degrees per second, which is about 150 degrees per second faster than the hip rotation of a typical NFL quarterback. And because Murray lacks size, this rapid hip movement is crucial for him to generate such high launch velocities.

Mechanically, longer levers (arms)mean greater ball velocity. Some quarterbacks, like Lamar Jackson (below), keep their arm bent throughout their throwing motion. This “short-arm” technique essentially reduces the length of their lever and limits their launch velocity.

Toward the end of his throwing motion, however, Murray tends to fully extend his arm (see below). This helps him maximize the effective length of his lever. And all else being equal, every additional inch of lever length equates to about an extra 2 MPH of launch velocity.

(Side note on arm strength numbers that float around during draft season — For this article, ball velocities were calculated using video analysis and physics. Other sources of ball velocity include the radar gun at the NFL Combine and Zebra Technology’s RFID footballs at the Senior Bowl. Zebra Technology’s numbers are probably incredibly accurate, but I’m not sure how representative they are of maximum arm strength. Luke Falk has a fine arm, but it is not “about” the same as Josh Allen’s. Their tech is great, but some of their numbers could use a little clarification (like over what period of time “initial ball velocity” is calculated). Radar guns, on the other hand, can be wildly inconsistent. For example, Cody Kessler does not have the same arm strength as Patrick Mahomes. Different settings on the gun, as well as human error, can produce erratic readings. Either way, most people who have used a radar gun and video analysis will agree that the latter is a much more reliable way to determine football velocity. But, of course, feel free to use whichever source you like.)

Release Time

While he doesn’t have the most compact mechanics, Murray’s release is unquestionably quick. He’s able to complete his throwing motion, on average, in just 0.39 seconds. That’s the same amount of time it typically takes Tom Brady to release a pass. A middle-of-the-pack release takes about 0.40 seconds, but, around the league, average release times range from 0.47 seconds on the really slow end (Jameis Winston) to 0.35 seconds on the holy-s**t-how-did-he-get-that-off end (Aaron Rodgers).

Yes, 0.01 seconds is a very small amount of time to differentiate one QB’s release from another’s. But, in a passing play’s chain of events, every fraction of a second matters. Let’s say, for example, a cornerback is traveling at 15 MPH to track a throw. All else being equal, giving that defender an extra 0.05 seconds allows them to cover an additional 1.1 feet. Now, obviously, a quarterback’s arm strength factors into that equation, but this just highlights why having a quick release can be so beneficial.

Processing Speed & Decision Making

Murray obviously excels at decision making. The type of success he had at Oklahoma would not have been possible otherwise. But, compared to last year’s crop of quarterback prospects, the speed with which he makes his decisions is not quite as fast.

To quantify this, I tracked the amount of time it took Murray to start his throwing motion after he locked-on a target. If it was not clear who he was looking at, or when he began looking at them, the play data was not included. Basically, this metric — let’s call it Trigger Time — represents how long it takes a quarterback to pull the trigger on a pass. This is, admittedly, a rudimentary way to look at decision making, but it might give some insight into possibly the most important quality of an NFL quarterback.

At the time of publishing, I’ve looked at the college trigger times for Kyler Murray and the top three QBs selected in the 2018 NFL Draft: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Allen. At least 50 throws from each quarterback were tracked. Murray’s trigger time was the third slowest of that group — he took, on average, 0.51 seconds to decide to throw. That was almost 30% slower than Mayfield’s average trigger time (0.40 seconds) and almost 40% percent slower than Darnold’s (0.37 seconds). It was, however, quicker than the Allen’s (0.76 seconds), whose college tape repeatedly shows him staring down his deepest receiver before rocketing the ball into the stratosphere.

Now, it’s possible Murray’s trigger time isn’t slow, but just slow-er compared to Darnold’s and Mayfield’s. Analyses of the other quarterbacks in this draft class and beyond will help provide context. And, with virtually no historical data, it is difficult to project how this will correlate to NFL success. Every play in football is unique and a number of variables, such as offensive scheme, could affect trigger time. So, while this metric does seem to paint a decent picture of how quickly Murray makes decisions, more data needs to be collected.

Size and Speed

In terms of straight-line speed, the fastest Murray was clocked for this analysis was 20.65 MPH. Outside of Ezekiel Elliott, that’s faster than the speed of any ball-carrier during the 2018 NFL playoffs. But what really makes him lethal on the ground is his turn-on-a-dime agility.

Murray is the quarterback version of the Golden Snitch. Here, his jockey-like stature plays to his advantage. Smaller hips and less mass generally mean a body can shift directions faster. If Murray participates at the NFL Combine, look for him to approach the QB record for the 3-Cone Drill.

And speaking of Murray’s height, it’s no secret that he’s a small dude. Using the football for scale, my video analysis software measured him at just over 5-feet 9-inches tall. That’s an inch shorter than his listed height. Since the merger, the only quarterback listed at 5'10" or shorter to throw at least 200 pass attempts in a season was Doug Flutie, per Pro Football Reference.

Could Murray’s height affect his play in the NFL? Sure, but probably not by much. Let’s say a defender with an 8.5-foot standing reach is 6 yards away, like in the gif above. To clear the defender’s hand, a taller QB who releases the ball 7 feet above the ground needs to use a minimum launch angle of at least 5 degrees. Murray, who releases the ball closer to 6 feet above the ground, needs to use a minimum launch angle only about 3 degrees higher. Linemen are generally taller in the NFL, but, as we’ve seen with other vertically challenged quarterbacks, Murray’s height really shouldn’t be an issue.

Conclusion & Player Comparison

Kyler Murray has a release as quick as Tom Brady’s, better arm strength than Sam Darnold, and a set of wheels that make him the quarterback equivalent of the Golden Snitch. He makes decisions quicker than Josh Allen did in college, but slower than Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold. And Murray would be one of, if not, the shortest QB to play since the merger.

When it comes to playing style, Murray’s closest comparison is Doug Flutie if Doug Flutie could run a sub-4.5 40-yard dash. Yes, their size is similar. But the resemblance of arm angles and frenetic mobility is striking. Watch some Flutie highlights. In 1999, after years of dominating the CLF, Flutie went 10–5 as the Buffalo Bills’ starting quarterback. He was 37 years old. Murray’s legs are infinitely more dangerous than Flutie’s were, and he’d be playing in a league that averages more passing yards, passing touchdowns, and has a much higher average completion percentage. So, does an NFL team spend a top-15 pick on that kind of potential? They absolutely should.

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Tim Dix is a writer based in Los Angeles, where he mostly produces television involving sports or science or both. Follow along for more NFL draft breakdowns on Twitter at @LogicSports3.