A video analysis of LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Utah State’s Jordan Love, and Oregon’s Justin Herbert.

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Projecting success for a 22-year-old is hard. Law schools try to judge a student’s viability with a test like the LSAT. Med schools do the same by having prospective doctors take the MCAT. The NFL, on the other hand, tries to predict success by stripping draft prospects down to their underwear and asking them to sprint in a straight line for 40 yards. And by measuring the width of their hands. And, apparently, by smelling them.

But, believe it or not, NFL combine events like the 40-yard dash are not good predictors of success (the jury is still out on the smell test, however). And, unfortunately, for quarterbacks at least, traditional college stats have very small correlations with NFL success. That’s why the majority of a prospect’s evaluation has to be based on their game tape, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The problem with evaluating a prospect’s tape, however, is that it’s subjective. What Todd McShay sees on tape is different than what Mel Kiper sees (and this obviously holds true for scouts and GMs around the NFL, too). …

If you follow the NFL, you probably know by now that Oakland’s Vontaze Burfict has been given a season-long suspension for his head-to-head hit on Indianapolis’s Jack Doyle. The collision is truly an ugly one and, whether viewed at real-time or high speed, the punishment seems to be worthy of the crime.

Burfict clearly leads with his helmet, which, in my opinion, should warrant some kind of penalty whether the hit is head-to-head or head-to-body. The grey-area with a hit and suspension like Burfict’s, though, is intent. Did Burfict mean to hit Doyle’s head? …

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Remember those Creepy Crawlers sets from the 90s? The ones with the awesome theme song in the commercial? Well, as a kid, it seemed like this magical oven would allow you and all your 10-year-old buddies to play mad scientist and spawn the freakiest little creatures this world would ever know. But when you got the set, despite having all kinds of molds and different color goo’s, every gelatinous blob came out looking like the same a pink tarantula that had been whacked by a giant sledgehammer.

So far, the Browns’ season has been like my experience with Creepy Crawlers. They appear to have everything they need to be awesome, but two of their three games have come out looking like that pink tarantula. Familiarity between new players, and a mostly new coaching staff, has obviously played a role in their lackluster start. But like most NFL teams, success begins and ends with the performance of the quarterback. So what’s Baker Mayfield doing differently this year? Is he doing anything differently this year? I used video analysis software and some NFL Next Gen Stats to find out. …

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If Kyler Murray is a Tesla, Dwayne Haskins might be a BMW. He’s well-built, he’s more of a known commodity, and he can get you from point A to point B in style. So, how will this Buckeye handle the twists and turns at the next level? I examined his college tape using video analysis software to find out.

(Full games tracked: @ Rutgers, vs Michigan, vs Northwestern, @ Penn State. Select plays tracked: vs Indiana, vs Tulane, vs Oregon State)

Release Time & Arm Strength

From a measurables standpoint, Haskins’ arm is good, but not great. On average, he takes about 0.40 seconds to complete his throwing motion. That’s the same amount of time it takes Baker Mayfield to release a pass, and it’s right around the middle of the pack for the NFL. It’s not a lightning-quick release, but it’s not slow. …

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Even if he hadn’t been deciding which sport to play professionally, Kyler Murray would still be one of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s NFL draft. He’s a Tesla. He’s lightweight, quick, and he can do all the things the other quarterbacks can do. But he looks a little different and there are concerns that he might break down with too much use. So, how will this Heisman winner’s skills hold up in the NFL? To find out, I quantified his measurables — like arm strength, release time, and decision making — using video analysis software.

(Full games tracked: @ West Virginia, vs Texas, vs Alabama. Select plays tracked: vs Baylor, vs UCLA, vs Florida Atlantic, @ Iowa State, vs…

Ever wondered how we calculate a running back’s top speed? What about a quarterback’s release time? The techniques behind our process are summed up below.

A lot of what we calculate begins with knowing a video’s frame rate. The frame rate tells us how many frames appear on screen every second. If a particular video is displayed at 30 frames per second (FPS), we know that 1 frame is 1/30th of a second, 2 frames is 1/15th of a second, and 3 frames is 1/10th of a second. On the same 30 FPS video, if a baserunner beats a throw by 2 frames, we know he was safe by 0.067 seconds (2/30 = .067 seconds). Video can be recorded and displayed in a number of different frame rates, generally ranging from 16 FPS to 10,000 FPS (super-slow-mo) and above. …

Tim Dix

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