Let’s Call McCarthy’s Ouster What it Really Was: Bipartisanship
According to the Vote count, Democrats and Extreme MAGA teamed up to kick him out
One thing that drives me crazy is when a talking point that defies reality is so prevalent among politicians and the media, that it almost becomes reality. Taken to the dangerous extreme, we get the Stop The Steal movement. But it’s done in little ways here and there almost every day as well. A narrative is pushed and pushed without explanation, so the reader is left to assume it’s just the way it is.
But an independent-thinking reader can and should notice when things don’t make sense. And there are two very common talking points about the recent vote to end Kevin McCarthy’s tenure as Speaker of the House that don’t make sense.
Misguided Talking Point #1: Republicans kicked out McCarthy
A simple vote count shows that this obviously isn’t the case. Every single Democrat that voted, 208 of them, voted to kick McCarthy out. 8 Republicans also voted against McCarthy for a total vote count of 216. 210 Republicans voted to keep McCarthy in place. It was an extremely tight vote, hinging on 3 votes. But the overwhelming majority of Republicans, about 97%, voted for him to stay on as Speaker.
This was a pretty one-sided vote, led by Democrats. One could even argue that the Democrats kicked him out. We should at least start the conversation from there, and then begin any analyses of the political situation. It’s lazy to just look at one half of the House — Republicans — and say that they dictated every event that occurred the day of the vote. The fact is, Democrats had a major hand in McCarthy’s ouster. They just played the political game that day rather brilliantly and made sure that only Republicans were in the spotlight so that their dysfunction was on open display for all to see. Their publicity meekness that day ensured that they would be barely mentioned in news stories or analyses of the day. Sure enough, even the more neutral stories said the “House” voted to vacate the Speakership, not the Democrats.
I’d like to emphasize here that many of the other sub-talking points that stem from the primary one can still be true even if the primary one isn’t quite correct. For example, the Republicans are swimming in dysfunction, and Republicans did start this fight, and therefore are to blame for this vote taking place. None of this would have happened if the Republicans were not a hot mess. Democrats didn’t and wouldn’t have introduced the motion to vacate the Speakership; that would have too obviously pinpointed the blame on them for any ensuing chaos and created major political problems for them. Instead, they took advantage of a unique opportunity, allowing Florida MAGA Republican Matt Gaetz to appear to be the crazy unhinged one. Gaetz seems to be basking in the glow of the aftermath of this at the moment, but this is likely going to result in his downfall…perhaps that will be an article for another day.
The reality is that this was a bipartisan vote, at least by today’s standards. Even though the vote was one-sided, any time that some cooperation between parties is required to get something approved via House vote, that can be considered bipartisan. Sure, it was a very unlikely partnership between extreme MAGA nuts and Democrats, but they happened to find common ground here, even if for completely different reasons. (This is where I quote something about “odd” or “strange bedfellows”, or something like that.)
Misguided Talking Point #2: Democrats should have kept McCarthy as Speaker to maintain order, and besides, he’s probably their best option anyway
This one is a tempting one for sure. At first glance it does appear that by voting for the Speakership to be vacated, you’re voting for chaos and uncertainty. To some degree that’s true.
But it misses an important reality of the political situation in the House: Democrats had, and still maintain, lots of power in the House.
Since Democrats are not in the majority, it is true that they are subject to the whims of Republican leadership. Republicans will be bringing votes to the floor, creating priorities, initiating committees for whatever is the concern of the day. It is also true that if Republicans can stick together on any particular vote, they will enforce their agendas.
But because the Republican majority is so narrow and their caucus is so fractured, any division on any vote suddenly shifts the power back to the Democrats. If the Republicans lose 5 of their members on any vote, then they must work with Democrats to pass anything. Their options are limited, because if they give in to MAGA demands in order to get a Republican consensus, they risk appearing crazy to the electorate of the moderates that could more easily get voted out in 2024. But if they don’t give in to MAGA, they lose their votes, which currently number more than 5, which means they must work with Democrats and then potentially lose face with a wide swath of their voters that don’t want any compromise with Democrats.
Ironically, the extremeness of the Republican party has enhanced moderation in the House and given Democrats more power. If Republicans were more able to consistently be united, Democrats would have almost no power or influence. But since Republicans are almost always facing a debilitating fracture, the input and cooperation of Democrats is necessary.
By the same token, it would make almost no sense for Democrats to have voted to keep McCarthy as Speaker, as many now are suggesting. It is a missed political opportunity, they say, to appear to be a sane and level-headed adult in the room option to a weary electorate. Besides, they also say, McCarthy was probably their best option, who else are they going to get? Probably someone worse! Right?
Regarding the first point, about appearing to be the adult in the room, I think that this is not as powerful as the argument that Democrats should have kicked him out because he was an untrustworthy adversary, and they get no benefit from him staying as Speaker. McCarthy is known for saying whatever it takes at any time to promote his politics and enhance his image. After working with Democrats on a bipartisan budget resolution to keep open the government, he immediately trashed and blamed them for being the ones to push the county to the brink of a shutdown. In addition, he propped up Donald Trump during a very sensitive time within a month of January 6, 2021, and allowed the MAGA caucus to begin their impeachment “inquiry” of Joe Biden. So what exactly did the Democrats have to gain from McCarthy staying in place? The answer is clearly nothing.
As far as the idea of there being no one better than McCarthy, this has some potential truth to it, but it will probably prove incorrect. How is it that someone more extreme than McCarthy will end up being Speaker? At this point, given the intra-party animosity we just witnessed, the Republicans will likely not be united on someone to the right of McCarthy. MAGA and “normie” Republicans will not agree on this, because the ones that are more in danger of losing their seats will not want to have someone crazy be the face of the Republican Party in the months leading up to the 2024 election.
If those Republicans in the more fragile House seats want to have the best chance at winning the next election, they will have to work with Democrats to pick the next Speaker to ensure it is someone more moderate that will let more popular proposals pass, such as aid for Ukraine. For this reason, there is a good chance the new Speaker will end up being someone more moderate than McCarthy, and someone that won’t care about or be beholden to the MAGA wing of their party.
Only 5 Republicans have to strongly push for this in order for there to be enough votes. There are a large handful of Republicans in toss-up districts, roughly 10–15 of them, that will be concerned about this, which is more than enough to tip the vote. It may not happen on the first vote, or the 30th vote, but eventually, after round after round of not having enough votes for a new Speaker, reality will set in and someone will have to compromise just to have a functional government. It’s also possible that these negotiations will all take place during the week-long recess that is currently in place, and it’s decided on the first vote.
Therefore, the new Speaker will likely be someone that favors continued aid to Ukraine, budget resolutions without draconian cuts, and tamping down on the Biden impeachment “inquiry” process. This very well may result in an unrecognizable House compared to what it was for the past nine months. It could even be the face of reasonable and responsible governance.
As an aside, I’d like to point out that the current Speaker Pro Tem cannot be the actual Speaker, and therefore can’t take legislative action, as some have suggested. And Donald Trump will not be the next Speaker for all the reasons I mentioned above, there’s just no way all the Republicans will want to have him be the face of the House as during the lead up of the 2024 elections. Apparently, there’s also the House rule that leadership can’t have an indicted felon in their ranks. These are novelty ideas; cute, but not realistic. It’s interesting: we haven’t seen this much Republican Party interest in parliamentary minutiae since January 6, 2021.
It’s possible that when the House convenes this week and takes up the new Speakership vote, that any differences and compromises have been ironed out, and the decision is made on the first vote. But there’s at least an equal, if not higher, chance that these kinks are not worked out, and we have to go through the painful and chaotic process of multitudes of rounds of votes to finally settle on a new Speaker. This will be an uncomfortable thing to watch, but necessary to filter out the candidates that don’t fit and find someone that can actually be a Speaker for the whole House.
Seems impossible? Yes, it does, but only because we haven’t been in this situation for a long, long time; usually the party in power has enough of a cushion to impose their will, and they appear united. The political reality of the current makeup of the House suggests that more moderation will probably win the day.
And what if I’m wrong about everything, and somehow there is a more extreme Speaker than McCarthy? That will play into Democrats’ hands and provide much fodder for 2024 election ads. Democrats really had nothing to lose by voting out McCarthy, and it appears they knew this all along.
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