Chelsea are currently 4th in the Premier League and are in a strong position to secure Champions League qualification. This wasn’t exactly predicted before the season began, after Eden Hazard moved to Real Madrid and a seemingly inexperienced Frank Lampard took over the head coaching job. However, the most surprising revelation for the Blues this season has been their new main striker, a 22 year old Tammy Abraham.
Starting with some basic stats, Abraham has scored 13 goals in the league, which makes him the 8th highest scoring player. He has also assisted 3 goals.
Here is a graph indicating how his non-penalty xG+xA per 90 numbers compare to other forwards in the league:
He has put up a healthy 0.74 npxG+xA90 in 1976 minutes, which is the 7th highest output in the league.
Comparing him to other U-24 forwards in the top 5 leagues in Europe, this is how he racks up in terms of Open Play xG+xA per 90:
As you can see, he is consistently putting up numbers that are comparable to his peers, whether in his league or his age-group, despite never receiving quite as much praise as others do on this list.
If we look at Abraham’s shot chart, it’s not a surprise that he has such good underlying numbers. Here it is:
As you can see, he rarely takes shots from outside the penalty area. Such a calculated shot taking process helps him stay in his comfort zone and be a good contributor towards his team’s goal-scoring success.
From a data perspective, Abraham looks to be on the verge of a season that will propel him into the elite tier of forwards, sooner rather than later. But how does he stand up to the eye-test? How does he fit into Chelsea’s attacking principles? Let’s take a look.
Build-up Role:
Chelsea usually like to play out from the back. Jorginho and Kovacic act as their main line breakers and Mount and Abraham often drop into the pockets of space to receive the ball in space and turn.
As you can see in the picture, Abraham receives the ball in a position with his back towards the goal. This means his hips and feet intersect at an angle where he is unable to make a quick turn on a pass and it results in a turnover. He turns the ball over 4.93 times per 90, which is a little high. With subtle improvements like hip positioning, he can become a more refined and efficient player.
In this instance, when the build up in the first phase is broken down, Abraham acts as a target man to receive a long pass from either the fullbacks or the center backs.
Abraham has good lower body strength which allows him to control the ball with his feet and he isn’t too bad at taking the ball down with his chest. He’s able to link up with quick first touch passing and flicks. However, he can improve on controlling the ball with his head. He only has 2.65 aerial wins per 90, which is not very good for someone of his height. He should still gain a little muscle (5–8 lbs) in order to be able to shield the ball in a better way. He seems to have developed a great synergy with Willian and Mount, especially the former. He provides 0.79 key passes per 90 and has an xA90 of 0.11.
Movement:
Abraham is notoriously good at moving into open space and in behind the defence. His excellent spatial awareness is evidently seen in his off-ball movement, which is why he averages 6.51 touches in opponent’s penalty box per 90. He has a good sense of the game which makes it easy for him to read defences. Sometimes, his erratic footwork hinders his own good work and leaves chances like these unfinished. In this instance, a couple of extra small steps allow Leno to close down the angle and Luiz to get in a tackle.
Ball Progression:
His ability to carry the ball surprised me. You don’t often see players who are as tall (6'3") as him being able to fluidly move up the pitch with the ball. Being agile and quick off the first step enables him to gain advantage over the chasing defenders and be a good outlet on counter attacks. Abraham averages 0.88 successful dribbles per 90, with a success rate of 57.6%.
Shooting:
Abraham has great shooting technique, he is able to create space for himself with a quick touch and his right foot is strong enough to pull off finishes from difficult angles. Here’s an example:
He anticipates crosses nicely too and sometimes can pull off ridiculous finishes like these:
As previously mentioned, he has a great right foot. But there’s room for improvement in the left foot department. If he’s able to become more ambidextrous, it’ll open up new passing and finishing angles. On top of that, he has a tendency to take shots too early and sometimes snaps at opportunities. Becoming calmer and more composed will certainly aid his finishing ability. He currently averages 0.57 npxG per 90 and 0.17 npxG per shot.
Lack of finishing variety is probably his biggest weakness. He is yet to score a goal with his left foot, despite taking nine shots. He does have three headed goals but the conversion rate on those is a dire 17.65%. He struggles to direct his headers either side of the goal and often places them right into the keeper’s hands. His favorite type of finish is undoubtedly using his right foot. He has taken 46 shots and has scored 10 goals, averaging 21.74 right-footed shots per goal. This takes his overall conversion rate to 17.81%, which shows that there’s quite a bit of progress to undergo in the finishing department.
Defence:
Chelsea like to press high up the pitch and Abraham always leads the first line. His incredible motor skills and work ethic allows him to tirelessly press and break up the opponent’s initial build up. He attempts 17.7 pressures per 90 and is able to successfully regain possession for his team in 5.12 of those.
Chelsea’s use of boxes and triangles in pressing is fairly interesting. Watch how a box quickly develops into a bunch of triangles cutting off passing lanes and options, forcing Leno to kick it long and disrupt their flow of attack.
In defensive set-piece situations, Chelsea often deploy Abraham into their own 6-yard penalty box, aiming to take advantage of his height.
Summary:
Player development isn’t always linear, but it’s tough to imagine Tammy Abraham go anywhere but upwards. He has good underlying numbers and those numbers match the eye-test. He’s quickly taking steps transforming into a complete forward. Hardly ever does he lose his focus. A good work ethic and appreciative nature towards his teammates has increased his standing and he now takes up an important role in the young Chelsea dressing room. If things go according to the plan, I predict him to become a reliable 25+ NPG scorer in all competitions for years to come.
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