I don’t get it.
I don’t really understand what the Patriots are doing in the 2022 offseason, and I’m sure many other people are in the same position. Some suggest trying to get it all out on paper to help organize your thoughts and better understand the problem. So let’s give it a shot. Note: all of these stats are as of ~8:30pm on March 19th. At the time, the Ty Montgomery and Ja’Whaun Bentley 2022 cap numbers have not been made public. Thank you to Miguel Benzan for his ever-diligent work on tracking the team’s cap space.
Personnel
Personnel Lost: Dave Ziegler (GM), Josh McDaniels (OC/QB coach), Mick Lombardi (WR coach), Carmen Bricillo (OL coach), Bo Hardegree (asst. QB coach)
Personnel Gained: Joe Judge (QB coach — TBC)
This has been the most concerning point to me so far this offseason. Given we are going into day 3 of the 2022 league year, the Patriots will likely continue to sign new players and fix the holes that have been left on the roster (more on that to come). But the exodus of personnel has left major holes all over the offensive coaching staff for a team that is expecting their second-year quarterback, as well as key offensive pieces that had a lackluster first season, to take “the leap” and flourish in 2022. Alongside the aforementioned names, lead running backs coach Ivan Fears (the longest-tenured Patriots coach, predating Belichick himself) is expected to retire. With all of these departures, the team would have just 5 coaches on the offensive staff, none of which having coordinator experience. The team has added Joe Judge as an “offensive assistant” (rumored to be QB coach), and per Mike Reiss, NFL Coaching Fellow Ross Douglas may also be joining the offensive staff (Mike also mentioned the same could happen with Matt Patricia). Media had pushed a lot of discussion on former Patriots offensive coordinator and current Alabama play-caller Bill O’Brien would return to his old role, but nothing came to be. Assuming this is related to the Patriots’ unwillingness to interview numerous outside candidates, it was disappointing. It’s unclear what would lead to this decision, outside of Belichick’s belief that TE/FB coach Nick Caley could be the play-caller. If the team tries to have Joe Judge call plays, I would expect some form of punishment from the league office, given it can be seen as a subversion of the Rooney Rule, which now applies to coordinator positions. Configuring an offensive staff that can at the very least maintain the 2021 offense’s pace and at best elevate the performances of those who struggled or still have room to grow is paramount to remaining competitive in what is now a stacked conference.
The defensive staff will likely continue to be led by the Jerod Mayo/Steve Belichick pairing, which is fine. However they figured out their early season kinks during 2021, they should continue to follow that plan.
Players
Players Lost: RB Brandon Bolden (32), CB J.C. Jackson (26), FB Jakob Johnson (27), OL Ted Karras (29), OL Shaq Mason (28), LB Kyle Van Noy (30), EDGE Chase Winovich (26), WR Gunner Olszewski (25)
Players Re-Signed: K Nick Folk (37), QB Brian Hoyer (36), S Devin McCourty (34), ST Matt Slater (36), OL James Ferentz (32), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (25)
Players Gained: CB Terrance Mitchell (29), LB Mack Wilson Sr. (24), RB Ty Montgomery (29)
TBD: WR Jakobi Meyers (25) — offered tender at second round, unclear if signed
Cap Space at Offseason Start: $13,030,798
Cap Space as of 3/19/2022: $12,440,978
There’s plenty of questioning going on surrounding the Patriots’ apparent unwillingness to spend their slight amount of cap space (myself included), and some of it is valid. But it’s clear that the team’s focus is on re-signing players they view as important pieces moving forward and making small veteran additions at reasonable prices. The team passed on signing high-profile free agent receivers like Christian Kirk (never going to happen), Allen Robinson (reportedly not competitive on money), and avoided trading for players like WRs Amari Cooper, Robby Anderson, and Robert Woods, as well as OL La’el Collins (all carrying significant cap hits), instead opting for a low profile trade (Chase Winovich for Mack Wilson swap) and typical Patriots signings (soon to be 30 year-olds Terrance Mitchell and Ty Montgomery). The team also traded away 7-year veteran OL Shaq Mason in a somewhat surprising move to clear up approx. $7 million in cap space, freeing them to re-sign more players. Losing both starting guards (Ted Karras went to the Bengals for ~$5 million more in total money over 3 years) is a significant issue, and RT Trent Brown may also leave after having a reportedly productive meeting in Seattle. Rebuilding the offensive line has now become the first priority in terms of offensive personnel.
On defense the Patriots still have significant holes to fill, mainly at cornerback and linebacker. J.C. Jackson was the team’s #1 corner in 2021, playing 87.6% of defensive snaps, as well as being responsible for 8 of the team’s 23 interceptions and 23 of 89 PBUs, and he left to join the Chargers on the first day of legal tampering. Bringing back Ja’Whaun Bentley for 2 years at ~$4.5 million/year was a smart move after losing a cumulative 1,644 linebacker snaps from 2021 in Kyle Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower, and Jamie Collins (the latter two could still re-sign, but have not at this time). The addition of Mack Wilson should help, and the team is also likely to bank on one of Josh Uche, Ronnie Perkins, Anfernee Jennings, and Cameron McGrone to take on a greater role. Belichick also spoke very highly of Raekwon McMillan, who tore his ACL in training camp and still received an extension afterward. The Patriots’ rushing defense gave up an average of 4.5 yards per carry in 2021, tied for 8th highest, and the loss of their top linebacker trio could lead to this team looking worse without significant contributions from players who have not yet made an impact in their pro careers. While Terrance Mitchell is a nice, low-cost signing, his minimal guaranteed money means he is not a roster lock in 2022 and would likely be competing for a third or fourth cornerback spot in an ideal situation. The team has not gotten much out of backup corner Joejuan Williams in his career, and Myles Bryant was exposed at the end of the year while filling in for an injured Jon Jones. While Jones’ return will shore up the slot corner spot, the team needs to invest capital in a top tier cornerback. If Jalen Mills were to be leading the room, the Patriots would be in a dire position. Adding a rookie like Kaiir Elam or Andrew Booth would likely go a long way in bolstering the team’s pass defense both in the short- and long-term.
So What’s “The Plan”?
Great question. Now that we’ve laid out everything going on, let’s try to discern the strategy of how the Patriots have approached building a team for the 2022 season.
- Reliance on 2021 free agent class’s “2nd-year leap” — the team will likely expect much more out of WR Nelson Agholor and TE Jonnu Smith in year two with the team. DL Davon Godchaux was adequate/good in his first year, but it is fair to expect some slight improvements from him as well.
- “Youth movement” on defense — assuming players like Hightower, Van Noy, and Collins are gone, and the team doesn’t look to trade for a veteran #1 corner, the team will be reliant on second- and third-year players such as Perkins, Uche, McGrone, and more to fill significant holes in the middle of the defense, while also looking to the draft to find a new corner and potential longer-term replacements for players like Devin McCourty and Jonathan Jones.
- Seemingly clear draft targets — losing Ted Karras could have been mitigated, but sending off Shaq Mason has vaulted offensive line to the Patriots’ top priority in the draft, alongside finding both a top-tier cornerback and starting-caliber linebacker. Some of my preferred targets as of now are Boston College OL Zion Johnson, Clemson CB Andrew Booth, and Alabama LB Christian Harris.
Accepting defeat?
While it’s unlikely Bill Belichick would ever admit this, the AFC has morphed into a different beast this year after monster moves by teams like the Raiders and Browns, as well as other teams making smart additions like the Chargers, Bengals, and Broncos, it’s hard to imagine at this time that the Patriots make the playoffs. Belichick did admit after the 2020 season that their cap limitations hamstrung the roster-building process, and this could potentially be happening again. While it’s not ideal to waste a year of Mac Jones’ rookie contract, the team has a significant amount of cap space available in 2023 due to having just 28 players under contract for the year. In an ideal world they make a strong push for a Wild Card spot in 2022 and are able to make a small handful of impact signings to gear up for 2023. While many teams will consistently win the offseason on paper, things change by September, and maybe we look back at this period much differently at the end of the season. That’s the beauty of life I guess. Who really knows what each day will bring? No one. Your weatherman could be lying to you, and you can’t blame him. He’s not Nostradamus. He’s a guy who stands in front of a blank screen and tries to point in the right spot while not telestrating genitalia. Do you really think you can do a better job? Anyways, football! Have fun out there.