Brexit or not to brexit?
It is April and spring made its first appearance in London and the rest of Europe. So does the referendum will come closer in June to decide on leave or stay for the UK business: Remain in EU or find success as an independent part in a global economy.
While being in London in early March I found confirmation in my impression that a majority of voters are in the mood to leave. That is a quantitive impression and does not imply this is a good way forward. It is just listening to people’s voices from across all parts of live. When talking to close friends and people from the startup ecosystem (investors and founders) all seam in favor of staying in EU for business reasons. That is a qualitative view from my personal peergroup which is very international and well connected to all parts of the world.
Will the UK brexit from EU?
In short: It will.
In long: There will be an intensive discussion and more and more people will join the discussion from all angels. Some with decent arguments — some with faked statistics (… and yes I have seen a lot of them already). But overall the leavers will outnumber the ones in favor of staying part in the UK. Basically it will come down to the pure English view of being the independent country which should not be ruled by outsiders:
“Rule Britannia,… “
So why bother about this for the next months?
You, my English friends, may ask why you should take part in a discussion on “brexit or not to brexit”. Honestly you shouldn’t. Because if the majority believes this world is about an island in the north sea and its inhabitants will rule the world from that island you will be fine. Defending your island is what you can do best. Exploring the world and conquer various new lands to prosper and grow is also something you were very successful in the history of the world.
Just this time it’s different and it will be too late when realizing it.
The rest of Europe will gladly accept these new opportunities for economies, political influence and leak of competition from a former strong UK ecosystem in all industries but most of all the financial and startup communities in London. Imagine all those UK investment funds from seed stage to late stage in small and large investment amounts will focus in those new hubs across Europe.
The other consequence is that UK businesses and politicians will not take part in many economical decisions and boards with larger economies from a global perspective. Those discussions will take part between communities having an impact from a perspective of size and influence — in the future UK will not be having this impact anymore. Not to talk about new, higher hurdles for any business trying to conclude their activities outside an idyllic island in economies on mainland Europe.
Any chance for the UK to prevent the Brexit?
Nope.
The voices will get louder and more prominent business people will get out into the press and TV to push for a Stay — but it is too little too late. It will be a race by a lot of very well known and important people to change public opinion and turn the ship around.
Here is the one and only way to keep UK in:
This discussion needs to become emotional. As emotional as it can get when arguing on a pure economic and rational point. While the leave community is all about history, fear and nationalism the party of stay is presenting excel sheets and business suits talking about future planning. This is not enough.
What needs to happen is a very emotional discussion about the future of the UK being an isolated island in a global interconnected world where digitalization and independence are two sides of the same coin. Every article I read from pro EU groups is too rational, too number driven, too educated.
Go out and get emotional my dear British friends.
… or buy a house in Ireland and get used to Kilkenny and Guiness.
This will be the irony of the century 100 years after the Easter Rising in Dublin: the English people requesting to live in the land of the Greens.
