Predicting Seismic Activity in Southern California
And How We’re Ahead of the Trend
In the aftermath of the 5.1 magnitude earthquake in Baja California, Mexico, I decided to take a gander at the recent history of seismic activity in that region. I was able to find something rather interesting.
I found an article from the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities written in April 1995 discussing the possible seismic activity in Southern California from 1994 to 2024. The model they used was predicting an earthquake of 7.0 magnitude or greater before 2024. I decided to take a look and see if the model was accurate since we are somehow already near 2024.
What I found is that we have exceeded that model’s prediction. Since the publishing of that article, the United States Geological Society (USGS) has measured and recorded four earthquakes of 7.0 magnitude or greater in the Southern California region, with two of them having epicenters in Southern California and the other two having their epicenters in Baja California, Mexico.
The article by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities even states that their model was predicting activity that exceeded historical values. So, do we have to worry about a major earthquake happening anytime soon? One that would devastate entire cities?
Cycles of Nature
The USGS says not to worry when we see fluctuations in seismic activity. This is a normal happening of the world and it doesn’t signify the impending occurrence of a larger earthquake.
One reason they give for the increase in earthquakes is the increase in seismic measuring equipment. More sensors allow for more earthquakes, no matter how small, to be recorded. The USGS also writes that they expect an average of 15 earthquakes over a 7.0 magnitude and one earthquake over an 8.0 magnitude every year, with exceptions dependent upon the natural fluctuations. 2010 was one of those years, with 24 earthquakes over a 7.0 magnitude (one of them being a 7.2 magnitude in Baja California).
Always Be Prepared
I believe that the main takeaway from this, and any natural disaster, is to be as prepared as possible. Ready.gov and American Red Cross both have guides to preparing for an earthquake, as well as what to do during and after. Social media will also be useful and it may be a smart idea to follow a location hashtag in the case of any emergencies, natural or not. Twitter may be one of the best due to the rapid speed of information transmission.
Understanding the hazards of your city, state, and region is important for your safety and more people should use the resources they have to prepare for the worst, because as people like to say, “It’s better to be safe than sorry.”
