Self-Driving Technology Is Coming for Black Men’s Jobs
This post is based on a presentation for the conference, Framing the Future: Autonomous Vehicles in the Capital Region, sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists and other organizations.
While I agree with those who argue that the hype about robots coming for our jobs is overblown, self-driving or autonomous-vehicle technology is different. Most of the arguments about robots taking jobs are pure speculation in that the specific technologies needed to replace people in specific jobs has not yet been developed. And, even if the technology exists, the investments have not been made to deploy the technology. Business leaders can decide that it is too costly to make the changes and investments needed to use automation.
But autonomous-vehicle technology is different. The technology is being tested now in 24 cities across the United States and in other countries. Companies are spending billions of dollars to make self-driving technology a facet of our day-to-day lives. GM’s recent announcement that it will be closing five plants and laying off 14,000 workers was in part so that it could have more money to invest in autonomous vehicles. The idea that autonomous vehicles can lead to job losses is not theoretical; it has already happened.
I am most worried about the impact of autonomous-vehicle technology on the jobs on which black men depend. Before I turn to those jobs, it is important to recognize that the American labor market is not very good to black men. By race, black men have one of the lowest rates of employment among men (only American Indian men are worse off). Even after taking into account differences in educational attainment and experience, black men earn about 20 percent less than similar white men. Black men have a low rate of employment and low wages before we add any potential negative impact from autonomous vehicles.
In addition to having a low rate of employment and low wages, black men are the race-gender group most dependent on driving jobs. Figure A shows that 8.2 percent of black men are in driving occupations while only 5.5 percent of Latino men and just 4.6 percent of white men are in these occupations. If driving jobs are rapidly replaced by autonomous vehicles, black men will be hardest hit.
Autonomous vehicle technology is not limited to self-driving cars and trucks. The technology is used in what we can call security-guard robots. Picture a machine that looks like R2-D2 from Star Wars only it is part of an autonomous, mobile security surveillance system — a security robot instead of a security guard. Again, this is not a theoretical issue. The company Knightscope has more than 40 of these security robots already in operation across the country, and Knightscope is not the only company developing this technology.
Black men are also the most reliant on security guard jobs. Figure B shows that 2.6 percent of black men work as security guards roughly triple the rates of Latino and white men. Now, it is unlikely that security robots will completely replace human security guards, but it could still significantly reduce the number of guards needed.
It is true that new technologies like autonomous-vehicle technology will create new jobs. But, it is important to ask what kind of jobs and who are most likely to get them. One can expect that autonomous-vehicle technology will create jobs to repair and maintain the technology. But will black men be able to obtain these presumably higher-paid tech positions. Today, black workers with science and technology degrees are more likely to be unemployed than white workers with those degrees. This suggests that black workers face challenges obtaining tech jobs that white workers do not face. If autonomous-vehicle technology creates high-wage tech jobs and low-wage service jobs, will black men have fair chance at the high-wage jobs or will they be channeled into the low-wage jobs. Given the fact that the American labor market is not very good toward black men, there is reason to be worried.
We can have a future with autonomous-vehicle technology and with good jobs for black men, but it will require a national commitment. We need job-creating investments targeted to high-unemployment communities. A low unemployment rate nationally does not mean that every community actually has low unemployment. We need more investments in all levels of education and training. We need more apprenticeships and more affordable higher education. And finally, we need a broader and stronger commitment to affirmative action. Only with a commitment to affirmative action in employment will black men not suffer from disproportionately low employment and low pay. These are policies that we need to fully include black men in the economy regardless of whether that economy relies on robots for transportation or not.
