1st time runners Sunday 9.27.00

We often hear track announcers share liberal statistics like offspring by sire [imagine any stallion] win 20% of their races 1st time out.

While we assume track announcers mean well, we often find those types of statements misguided. Sharing broad statistics without any context can hurt handicappers. The missing context are variables like gender, purse level and age.

a clavier statement:
debut runners by Tapiture win 18% of the time

a better statement:
3 yr old fillies by Tapiture have won 28% of the time on their debut run 😍

Gender and Age alters the importance of Tapiture’s DNA. Context changes relevancy. Take a look at the combo below of purse level + age + gender.

2 yr old fillies by Tapiture, in purses below $25,000 have won 41% of the time on their debut run

Layering context into the steps above for purse level + age + gender act as filters that focus our lens.

Our report summarizes how bloodlines impact races by applying those filters discussed above to provide a more accurate method of evaluating today’s 1st time runners.

The statistics model how the siblings and cousins of today’s debut runners performed their first time out.

Yes, we only model against the same gender, age and similar purse range.

CLICK HERE TO OPEN the report below in Google Sheets (Excel)