Best Underslot Targets on Day Two of The Draft

One of the most popular and successful draft strategies is to spread the wealth. Almost every team employs it in some manner. MLB Teams can’t just draft the best player available with every pick because they have a limited bonus pool they are allowed to offer and good players cost more money.

The way teams draft vary team to team and even year to year for each team. Sometimes you have a team like the Pirates who cut a deal at #1 overall with Henry Davis so they could splurge on their next three picks and get four players that got first-round grades from some evaluators. Other times teams go over the slot value in round one to take a falling prep bat like Khalil Watson last year, and cut corners later in the draft in order to afford his bonus demands.

The one common link in all of these approaches is that to save money one of the most common methods is drafting underslot players in the late rounds with no leverage in signing bonus negotiations. Most of the time these players are seniors who have no choice but to sign even for just 10K or whatever number the team generously offers. The Mets did this with Jake Magnum where he signed for 20K in the fourth round so they could afford to sign Matt Allen.

The other common archetype of a cash-saving underslot player on day two is someone from a D2 school or an older junior college Player. Ryan Murphy signed for just 22.5K with the Giants in 2020 which allowed them to not only add a very good Ryan Murphy but also sign Kyle Harrison who is a top three pitching prospect in all of baseball. When you have both a senior and D2 guy, you get the travesty that is Riley Martin who signed for just $1,000 with the Cubs out of the draft last year as a 6th round pick.

There are exceptions to every rule. I will primarily focus on players fitting these two archetype’s in this blog but there are some juniors who are impatient and sign for cheap. There are players who take less than they should because they want to play for their favorite team or with a friend. Even some preps sign for below the slot value. Injured players can decide they want to have an MLB team’s rehab and sign for cheap. Those players are more uncertain about their price tag and often less cheap even if cheap, so I won’t focus on them here but I have to mention they exist.

Enough rambling intro, let’s get into the list of 19 players who I think should go on day two with big financial savings.

Strike zone parameters are based on height for hitters. For pitchers, I assume every opposing hitter is 6'1"

SP/RP Alex Hoppe, UNC Greensboro

UNC Greensboro is the top-ranked senior in this year’s draft on my board and the only one I have a top-three round grade on independent of his demands or senior status. He’s primarily been a reliever in college which has him flying under the radar but he has three quality pitches and I have him projected into the rotation despite his lack of success in that role in the past.

The fastball is an above-average pitch that can pretty easily be argued as a plus and I would have it graded as one if I thought Hoppe was going to be a reliever at the next level. Alex Hoppe throws his fastball very hard at 96.3 MPH on average and can touch as high as 99.2 MPH from the right handed side.

You would presume that velocity will drop some if he’s stretched out to start, and it probably will but that is not a guarantee by any means. Alex Hoppe might have been a reliever but he still had a pretty big workload. Hoppe was asked to face on average 11 Batters each appearance and he averaged 41.3 pitchers each outing. The velocity will probably drop some in relief but I don’t think the dropoff will be as significant as most people are making it out to be. He’ll still sit 94–95 and flash brilliance in the velocity department.

The movement profile isn’t anything exceptional but it is also quite strong. Alex Hoppe gets 17.8 IVB on his fastball and 12.3 HB. That might not be exceptional movement but it’s still above-average vertical movement and plus horizontal break. That will play, and it can play incredibly well at his velocity.

The release traits appear to be generic with a 5.94 RelHeight and a 2.24 RelSide but looks can be deceiving. UNC Greensboro has a miscalibrated trackman unit. All of their pitchers have a vertical release point that is approximately 0.3 ft lower on road games than at home ones. Hoppe actually has a 5.68 ft release height and 2.03 ft RelSide. That when paired with the above-average fastball movement gives Hoppe a plus zone-neutral VAA.

Alex Hoppe is aggressive in throwing his fastball for strikes with 54.1% of them winding up in the strike zone. What Hoppe struggles with though is actually choosing his spots in the zone. Alex Hoppe throws just 42.5% of fastball in the top half of the strike zone even though he has a 15.7% Swinging-Strike rate on pitches in the top half. Elevate more and better things happen with the fastball. Even still, the fastball is performing because its impact velocity in a weak conference and with a flatter VAA. He throws the fastball 69% of the time and it’s easy to see why that is, this is a great pitch.

The slider has a fantastic shape and loud results with a 25.2% Swinging-Strike rate against it this year. He throws it hard at 85.4 MPH and has above-average movement on both planes with 0.2 IVB and 11.6 inches of sweep to his glove side. The pitch gets chases at a high clip and in-zone whiffs as well. As it should with the lethal combination of velocity and movement.

The primary problem with the slider is a lack of command. He struggles with throwing the pitch in the zone with any regularity with a zone rate just below 25%. He’s often throwing sliders way off the plate and in the dirt too. Low-level hitters will chase that crap but it won’t fly at the higher levels. This slider has plus shape but it’s only an above-average grade until he figures out where he is going with it.

The changeup rounds out the repertoire. He only threw 11 of them this year but they are inarguably distinct pitches and also inarguably really good pitches data-wise. The changeup sits at 86.4 MPH with a spin rate of 1848 RPMs. That is 9.9 MPH slower than the fastball. He throws the cambio on a 2:00 spin tilt with high efficiency and the result is him getting 17.5 HB and 11.7 IVB on the changeup.

That is 93rd percentile arm-side movement on the changeup relative to the major leagues. The depth is limited but the one plane movement might help him sell it as the fastball before it runs away from them and misses bats/gets weak contact because of poor timing due to the velocity difference. The feel is absolutely abysmal and it will take serious work to develop the pitch but there is real impact potential in the changeup.

Alex Hoppe has a pretty robust batted ball profile. He had a 96th percentile groundball rate and an 85th percentile LD avoid last year. This year it’s a 48.3% groundball rate and 16.6% line drive rate. Popups would come if he just elevates the fastball. Hoppe also has a knack for getting soft contact although that is absolutely in large part due to his competition quality. Hoppe only has an average EV of 77.4 MPH against him this year and 43.9% of batted balls against Hoppe are hit below 80 MPH. That is a lot in case you couldn’t tell.

The control is still a work in progress for Hoppe. He can throw strikes with the fastball consistently but that is his only pitch. The lack of secondary command leads to some walks and more so a lot of wild pitches.

There is absolutely risk in this profile. Hoppe is already 23 and needs a lot of work to reach the majors. If you develop him as a starting pitcher then Hoppe is realistically 3–4 years away from the majors. That means by the time he debuts he could be 27. That is a major turn-off for most people and probably should turn me away but it doesn’t.

I look at Alex Hoppe and see high-end upside with three pitches that all flash plus stuff. I see fantastic out-generation skills and a diverse repertoire that could potentially dominate batters of both handednesses. The upside here is immense and I’m okay with waiting to see him be the high impact arm I know he can be. He’s a 23 year old senior reliever who will come dirt cheap which adds to the appeal but he would be appealing regardless.

SP Michael Knorr, Coastal Carolina

Any number of people will say that Michael Knorr is the best senior target in the draft and I can easily see where they are coming from. He transferred from Cal Fullerton to Coastal Carolina this year and responded with a 10.5% boost in K-BB%. The stuff has upticked and is now on par with most 4th-6th round college arms.

The fastball is an above-average pitch. He sits at 94.4 MPH and tops out at 98.2 MPH. The velocity is held deep into outings too and I think it’ll probably translate to pro ball. At first glance, the movement seems spectacular but his home trackman is miscalibrated. He only averages 16.9 IVB from a six foot release height. Both of those numbers are right about the MLB average and that gives him a very average VAA. The fastball is too often grooved down the middle and he doesn’t elevate enough for my tastes (Average height of 2.49 ft) but there is above-average upside here.

The slider is also above-average and the results indicate it might be a lot more as he has managed to record a swinging-strike rate of nearly 25% against it. He throws a gyro heavy slider in the 81–84 MPH range with above-average depth and some bite to his gloveside. His slider is completely unhittable in the strike zone where it has a 53.3% whiff rate. He fills the zone at a somewhat high rate at 42.4% and it doesn’t take much squinting to understand why as the chase rates only a 55 while he has 80 grade in-zone whiffs. I don’t think that will translate obviously because that’s borderline unfathomable dominance but it’s a genuinely good pitch I might be underselling.

Michael Knorr also offers a below-average curveball. Velocity is really the only problem with the pitch, however. He sits at ~75 MPH with above-average two-plane movement. The pitch has -11.2 IVB and 12.6 inches of sweep. Both figures are above-average for a curveball. The problem is that Knorr often struggles to find the zone with the slow curve and slow curves without absurd movement rarely profiles. There is an upside with added power but it’s a 45 projection for the time being.

Michael Knorr rounds out his repertoire with a changeup that has a 20.5% Swinging-Strike rate this year. I’m more skeptical of the pitch despite the results. Knorr sits at about 83.6 MPH on the changeup which is great velocity separation from the heater. He shows a decent feel for killing spin as well. My qualms come from how the changeup moves. He gets just 12.5 IVB and 11.6 HB in road games.

So why the results? That horizontal movement is 0.07 inches away from the exact same horizontal action as the fastball. The vertical difference in movement isn’t significant but maybe the fact that he locates the changeup so far to his arm side and down in the zone off the middle-middle fastball with such significant velocity separation gives him elite deception. Changeups are weird. He’s only throwing 34% of them in the zone but getting chases 51.5% of the time. This is a loose average grade that will vary more based on how it performs against better competition than how it develops.

Michael Knorr throws a lot of strikes but that is more due to him aggressively pounding the strike zone with the fastball than anything really projectable moving forward. He’s also largely reliant on chases with his secondaries to avoid balls with them and there’s some skepticism on how their chase rates will translate to better hitters. He has more 55 control projection than the plus it has played at this season. There is some line drive proneness in the profile due to pitch location that I think can be fixed.

I think Michael Knorr has back-of-the-rotation potential and the price to sign him is just a bonus, not the entire appeal. He offers four quality pitches and he throws strikes. The upside is somewhat limited and he’s older but he still has good stuff.

SP Patrick Pridgen, Florida International

Patrick Pridgen actually gets a slight edge over Knorr from me on my board. Pridgen is technically a sophomore because he attended a JUCO for two years and rode the pine with Oregon a year before transferring to FIU. He will be 23.3 on draft day and 24 year olds rarely get paid- especially from small schools so he’ll likely sign for cheaper this year to avoid being in that ugly spot.

Patrick Pridgen reminds me a bit of Chase Silseth. Their pitch mixes are completely different but there is one big-league ready pitch that he just doesn’t use often enough or in the right situations so it holds him back significantly. Like with Silseth he had a bad curveball he used far too often and often drilled batters with it and struggled to find the zone or miss bats. There is literally a quote from Pridgen’s pitching coach confessing to the same problem:

“Early in the season, Patrick was hitting batters with his curve, and we took that pitch away from his arsenal,” — Willie Collazo, Pitching Coach at FIU

Sure enough, after his first four starts he saw his HBP rate fall off completely. Pridgen still has a major walk issue but that one small tweak eliminated most of his errant pitches. I don’t expect the walks to go away ever but I think they might be able to become manageable.

The fastball is an above-average pitch. Pridgen gets up to 97 MPH from the right-handed side and will frequently sit 91–94 MPH. He has high spin rates on the heater and will at least flash plus vertical movement. I don’t have the exact pitch specs from this year but I know that he had a 105 Hop+ on the pitch in the MLB draft league during the 2021 season which means he basically has a location-neutral VAA that is 5% better than the average major leaguer.

The slider is above average as well. He throws it in the low eighties with high gyro angle. The pitch utilizes SSW to get plus sweeping action to his gloveside. Pridgen misses bats with it but often struggles to throw the sweeping slider for strikes and he doesn’t get enough chases to make up for it. I suspect this is because it doesn’t mesh amazingly with his heater.

Enter the miracle pitch that could make Pridgen great and take his game to new heights with better situational usage. What else would it be but a cutter? A plus cutter is a possible answer to all the questions you might want to ask.

The cutter sits in the 88–92 MPH range with solid vertical life. I also know he can get up to 11 inches of cut on the cutter at 90 MPH. I say up to but it’s a one-pitch sample I have the data for and he sat at 11 HB. That doesn’t mean it’s necessarily his best cutter. Considering the best cutter in the MLB is thrown by Kenley Jansen with just 8.5 inches of cut, it’s significant regardless. This pitch has fantastic traits.

Patrick Pridgen’s cutter usage might be a criminal offense. It’s his third most used pitch. and he doesn’t use it to strike batters out despite it being probably his best swing and miss pitch. According to his pitching coach, he uses the cutter to get ahead in the count and avoid walks while going to the fastball and slider for strikeouts. This checks out with my in-game looks where he was also frequently landing the plus cutter for strikes. I think Pridgen needs to flip his strategy and lean on the cutter significantly more. The pitch is awesome.

I’ve also gotten rave reviews about Pat Pridgen as a person. He has a very high work ethic and is a methodological thinker who meticulously plans out his starts and how to attack hitters. He often fails to execute with his limited resources and lack of confidence in his best pitch but he puts in a lot of effort to being the best he can be and that probably matters.

The stuff is very present and with some tweaks could be taken to new heights even if he already has some of the top strikeout rates in the country. He has some relief risk with the lack of control and changeup but I’m more optimistic and him riding the cutter to be viable against left handed hitters. If he does wind up in relief I think the stuff will play up anyways so it’s not that big of a concern. The biggest risk here is that he has zero trackman data but from what I do know, I love Pridgen. I’ll either look really smart or really dumb for this one a year from now.

Utility Ben Metzinger, Louisville

Ben Metzinger turns 23 before the draft and is a 4th year junior. He has some leverage thanks to the COVID year giving him an extra year so he won’t sign for literal pennies but he should still be cheap. This was his first year as a regular after four years at Louisville and he was a dominant force.

The contact skills are top-notch. Ben Metzinger whiffed just 10.8% of the time on pitches in the zone in 2022 and the breakdown of how it works is even more impressive. Velocity? Not a problem for Metzinger who runs a mere 16.7% whiff rate on pitches at 93+. Breaking balls? Again, literally no difficulty for Metzinger who has a 15.6% whiff rate against them. Changeups? Even those he only runs an 8.5% swinging-strike rate against. There are concerns that Metzinger is more advanced than inherently skilled at making contact and it’s a viable argument but it’s still a clear plus skill that will translate.

The swing decisions are also above-average. He is somewhat passive but a 62% Z-Swing% and a 20.1% chase% are still quite good. That is the one skill I’m not sure I believe in moving up the ladder as it might just be him bullying younger competition. The more likely part of why it won’t translate to walks at the higher levels though is because he’s unlikely to be enough of an XBH hit to not attack the zone against him.

The power is fringe and generously a 40 raw grade. The power still plays in games, however, despite only an above-average feel to elevate. The reason behind this is twofold. First off, he pulls a large chunk of his aerial contact.

Secondly, he hits the ball with obscene amounts of backspin. The average spin rate on his batted balls is 3302 RPMs which ranks in the 98th percentile of all college hitters. He also hits 53.4% of his batted balls with backspin. That is 6% more than the average college hitter. Balls with high spin and more specifically high amounts of backspin carry farther and outperform expected stats. Metzinger can be expected to outperform his raw power because he pulls his aerial contact and has an ideal spin profile.

I like the bat of Metzinger but one of the more enticing parts of the profile is his versatility. Metzinger has experience all over the diamond and that includes catcher where he played as recently as 2020. His best spot is second base as he’s only an average athlete with an average arm but he is at his most valuable in that super-utility flex role. I don’t think Metzinger has star upside or anything but he’s likely to be a useful bench piece with his versatility and a solid bat. That puts him in the 4th-7th round range and the cash savings from signing him are more of a bonus than a necessity when drafting Metzinger.

SP Connor Noland, Arkansas

Connor Noland has fairly bland stuff but he throws strikes and has a really strong batted ball profile so I’m still intrigued with him on day two even if you ignore the likely cheap bonus demands.

The four-seam fastball is horrible. He sits at 91 MPH from a 6.5 ft vertical release with just 12 IVB and 5.5 HB. He uses it 21.5% of the time which is 21.5% too much of them. The four-seam has literally zero whiffs in the top half of the zone on 96 four-seam fastballs in that half. The pitch should be scrapped entirely in favor of the above-average sinker.

Connor Noland has a very unique angle on his sinker. The pitch coming from a 6.5 release has just 6.9 IVB and 11.3 HB. The result of that combined with his ability to pitch down in the zone gives him a VAA of -7.3° in road games (Arkansas Home trackman is slightly off). At the time of me writing this, the only major leaguer with a VAA steeper than Noland against their sinker with at least 100 sinkers thrown is Dallas Keuchel (McFarland is tied).

Keuchel won a Cy young with no velo because of his sinker. Noland won’t do the same but… I’m not considering any but. He just won’t. If he does I will personally apologize to him. I do still like the sinker though because of the unique angle even if it probably needs more power.

Yet, the vertical angle isn’t even all that stands out. Connor Noland throws from a very medial horizontal release point at just 0.65 ft in Road games (0.73 at home). The pitch only has 11.3 HB but that still gives him a great horizontal approach angle to his arm side and lets the pitch play way up there as a groundball getter. I love this sinker and have a 55 on it even without velo.

The curveball is actually his most used pitch though even over the sinker and it’s an above-average pitch as well. The pitch has some of the best power of all collegiate curves sitting at 83 MPH on average. He also has average vertical depth at -9.2 IVB and averagish sweep at -9.9 HB. You’re relying on power and angle to carry the pitch here and it does just that.

Noland also throws a below-average slider at 85.3 MPH. The pitch has solid depth but limited bite and the angle undermines its chase ability to his glove side. It could be made to work out the bottom of the zone but the curve is better in just about every circumstance.

The changeup is a below-average projection because he barely uses it (Less than 1%) but I can’t help but be intrigued by the potential of him developing one. He has the requisite feel to kill spin losing about 800 RPMs from the sinker and the angle he offers is unique. Right now, it doesn’t work off the sinker as it’s just 4.5 MPH slower with the same basic shape but if you can amplify that velo separation or something, it could be good. Noland is the perfect candidate to develop a splitter in my opinion but obviously, I won’t assume that is happening until it does.

Connor Noland gets a lot of groundballs and shows above-average control. I think he’ll show some platoon split until he develops a changeup (Or preferably a cutter to balance the sinker) and pair with the hard curve against lefties but he won’t be terrible against them as is. He’s a potential starting pitcher who might be forced to be a unique reliever due to the limited repertoire depth. Very intriguing day two target who should come pretty cheap due to him turning 23 the day after the draft concludes.

3B Zach Dezenzo, Ohio State

Zach Dezenzo has an argument for having the best raw power in the entire draft. To which you should respond with Spencer Jones. I would then concede in this hypothetical conversation and we’d agree that Dezenzo has the second best raw power in the entire draft.

Zach Dezenzo hit a ball 115.7 MPH this year. It was a pulled line drive into left field. There are only 11 major leaguers who have hit a ball that hard this year. It would rank in the 98th percentile of major leaguers this season. He also has the 9th highest Top 8th EV in the entire country at 110.3 MPH. This is 70 grade raw juice.

You probably don’t need any more raw power metrics to get the point across but I enjoy drooling at his raw exit velocities so I’ll give them to you anyways. Dezenzo has a 66.7% Hard-Hit rate this year which ranks 4th in the entire country (The leaderboard counts foul balls, I know for a fact that DiChiara is ahead of the #1 player when you only look at fair balls). Dezenzo has hit 52.2% of his batted balls over 98 MPH. That is the highest rate in the country. His average exit velocity is 96.4 MPH which is in the 100th percentile of all college hitters.

This is game power too, not just raw power. Zach Dezenzo has a mere 28.2% groundball rate this year. The outfield flyball rate is in the 89th percentile of all college hitters this year. The power plays better on aerial contact than on the ground too with 75% of his aerial contact being hit hard and an average exit velocity of 100.1 MPH on those same airborne batted balls. This all leads to an 18.9% barrel rate which is in the 99th percentile of all college hitters this year.

Zach Dezenzo also has great BABIP skills on paper. His 48.7% Sweet-Spot rate ranks in the 93rd percentile of all college hitters. He only pops out 1.3% of the time which is in the 87th percentile. He has a 97th percentile sdLA at 25°. He’s not overly pull-heavy or anything either. He’s also hitting the ball obscenely hard and that leads to higher BABIPs as well. There might not be a better present-day wOBAcon threat outside of Ivan Melendez in the entire draft.

Unfortunately, Dezenzo is dragged down by the on-base skills. Zach Dezenzo is a very aggressive hitter. He regularly will expand the zone in pursuit of pitches away from him and is just trigger happy in general. He’s chasing 34% of the time which is obviously not great. What is great (probably?) is that he also swings at 78.9% of pitches in the strike zone. This would suggest that electric Dezenzo is less blind and more impatient. And honestly who can blame him for being impatient when he does so much damage that walking is counterproductive.

Zach Dezenzo also has a whiff problem. He only made contact 72% of the time this year which is in the 15th percentile for a college bat. His whiffs aren’t just when he chases, unfortunately, Dezenzo has still not been at all good in the zone with just a 78.6% in-zone contact rate.

The breakdowns of what he is whiffing at are unusual. Dezenzo’s worst whiff pitch (By Swinging-Strike rate) is the sinker that he chases 47.9% of the time and he whiffs 26.1% of the time in the zone against it. The next worst whiff pitch for Dezenzo is the slider which is the pitch he has the lowest chase rate against at just 26.3%. The chases are mostly against fastballs and offspeed stuff but he doesn’t actually chase the breaking ball.

The whiffs come against everything but the curveball which he hammers. He whiffs an alarming 42.9% of the time against fastballs at 93+ but given that it’s a 35-pitch sample size I will cut him some slack. He’s actually better against pitches in the top half than in the bottom half. I’m not going to pretend to understand why given that he has a steeper VBA and a bat path geared solely for power. Maybe it’s a vision thing? The whiffs are bad and why he is only a 40 FV but they don’t completely counteract the ridiculous contact quality by any means.

Zach Dezenzo has primarily played shortstop in college but I think he’ll probably wind up at third base in the majors. He also has some experience at first base and a corner outfield spot so maybe he could fill a utility role instead. Dezenzo is a 40 runner with a quick first step and a strong arm. He’s probably average at third base but I haven’t spent that much time watching him play defense so I could be way off base. Either way, you aren’t drafting Dezenzo for the glove but for the very robust bat. He’s a senior despite only being 22 and should be signable for pretty cheap in the first six rounds.

1B/DH Sonny DiChiara, Auburn

Sonny DiChiara obliberates baseballs. There are three common knocks against SonnDiChiara that keep him down draft boards. The first is that he has no track record of production and that is a fair concern. DiChiara was at Samford for three years prior to transferring to Auburn this year and in 2021 he had a career best .273/.428/.598 triple slash against much worse pitching. Then this year he found a new gear as he murdered the SEC to the tune of a .384/.549/.777 line.

The second knock is that Sonny DiChiara is going to provide negative defensive value. This is another concern that makes a lot of sense and is something he deserves to be knocked for. DiChiara is a 20 grade runner with poor mobility and flexibility. He’s not a particularly tall target at first base and his reach is limited. This is a fringy defensive first baseman who is best served as a full time DH in the major leagues. There are very few full time DHs and the ones who do claim that role are usually among the best hitters in all of baseball. That leaves a pretty narrow path for DiChiara to find any semblance of success at the highest level.

The third and most stupid flaw DiChiara gets slandered with is the fact that he is fat. Sonny DiChiara is 6'1" and 265 lbs. I don’t really see the relevance. Sonny DiChiara has limited defensive value and will likely wind up DH. That might be because he is fat but in practice, it’s not any different than anyone who ends up at DH because they have a bad knee or whatever. He’s not providing less defensive value than someone with the same grades because of his size. The size is already factored into how he performs, you don’t need to double penalize him for it. We’ve seen plenty of XXL players mash in the big leagues and I don’t really view it as an impediment for what matters- his bat.

Sonny DiChiara obliberates baseballs. Sonny DiChiara has a 66% Hard-Hit rate in 2022 while facing SEC pitching. It is the 5th highest hard-hit rate in the entire country (The leaderboard counts foul balls, I know for a fact that DiChiara is ahead of the #1 player when you only look at fair balls). DiChiara hit 49.5% of his batted balls over 98 MPH. That is the second highest rate in the country behind only fellow senior, Zach Dezenzo. Sonny DiChiara had an average exit velocity of 94.4 MPH, that is also in the 99th percentile among all college hitters with 50+ BBE in games with Trackman.

DiChiara also has feel to elevate as well with only a 30.9% groundball rate and that when combined with the consistent hard contact leads to an astronomical 19.6% Barrel rate. That is the 9th highest barrel rate in the country. There is a very coherent argument that DiChiara has the best present-day game power in the draft class.

The key term there is present-day. DiChiara’s power is already perfectly optimized which leads to him dominating at the collegiate level but I don’t think it will thrive so much in the big leagues as it’s only actually plus raw power. That sounds outlandish to suggest about someone with DiChiara’s hard hit rates but it’s the truth. Sonny DiChiara only has a Max EV of 111 MPH. His 106.7 MPH top 8th EV is in the 91st percentile which is great for sure but it’s largely because of elite barrel accuracy and the consistency of his power already. That’s not even some earth shattering figure either. DiChiara only has 60 raw power and it might project above that at 65 game but it’ll probably never broach into that elite threshold.

Sonny DiChiara has advanced BABIP skills as well for his current level and I think they project fairly well. That is in large part because of the consistently plus power but also because of advanced barrel accuracy. DiChiara has both an above-average sweet-spot rate and avoids mishits. He pops out just 4.1% of the time and avoids low launch angle groundballs for the most part- mostly because he just puts the ball in the air instead. His soft contact rates are very low and he just hits the ball hard which does a lot for him.

Sonny DiChiara has a fantastic approach. He chases just 15.1% of the time and is below 19% against every type of pitch. The Z-Swing is a little low at just 60.1% but it’s high enough to make never chasing more than a worthwhile tradeoff for DiChiara. He should walk at a high rate and the power/walk combo should lead to good things.

There is a real concern with DiChiara’s ability to make contact, however. DiChiara only had a 71.3% contact rate this year and that is mostly due to in-zone whiffs as he whiffed at 21.8% of in-zone pitches. There is no easy fix for his problems. Plate discipline is not a problem and it’s not one particular thing causing him trouble. He whiffs against every type of pitch and doesn’t have bad discipline against any of them. The location doesn’t seem to be a determining factor in the whiff rates either. The hit risk is high and why you can be somewhat skeptical of if the power and on-base skills will be allowed to play.

There is also an issue with DiChiara struggling to barrel up pitches on the inner third. Due to the lack of flexibility in his swing, DiChiara struggles to get the barrel in on the inside pitch and as such only has an average EV of 86.5 MPH and he’s only maxing out at 106.5 so unlike Melendez it’s probably not just a small sample size fluke. I think he can work around that whole given the plate discipline being so good and it might even be fixable but it’s probably something to watch.

Sonny DiChiara has one of the highest upside bats in the entire draft. The impact potential is through the roof at the plate. However, hit tool questions and a lack of defensive value make the picture somewhat murky. I think DiChiara might wind up as a Daniel Vogelbach type of player who usually is fairly replaceable but will have stretches or even seasons where he is an all-star caliber hitter. He’s not my favorite of the 40 FVs by any means but he hits with authority and as a senior should sign for really cheap.

C/1B Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt

I have no clue what I was thinking the last time I scouted Dominic Keegan because looking at him again, a month later, I think he is amazing. Perhaps it’s the extra month of data or perhaps I was distracted or something last time I did this. Keegan is a wOBAcon monster at the plate with solid contact rates and a fringe chance at sticking behind the plate in the long term.

The raw power is explosive. Dominic Keegan can hit the ball very hard with some of the best top-end exit velocities in the entire draft. The Max EV of 113.7 MPH is already in the 92nd percentile of MLB players. His Top 8th EV of 110.2 MPH is the 10th best in all of college baseball and would have been 8th in the MLB last year, just 0.1 MPH ahead of Mike Freaking Trout. (This is wrong, I’m comparing the 92nd EV to the 87.5th EV) Keegan is an older college player but this is titanic raw power regardless of age and there is no projection needed here. Rewind to 2021 and those numbers are even better with a 113.9 Max EV and a 110.5 Top 8th EV.

The game power is not quite as strong as the raw power. Keegan puts the ball on the ground 46.9% of the time. That ranks in the 37th percentile of all college players. This is because of his flatter bat angle that leads to very little implicit loft primarily, but also in part because Keegan struggles to post consistently positive attack angles.

Dominic Keegan is also hurting because he only pulls 10.5% of outfield flyball with 71.1% of them being hit to centerfield. That causes the power to play down as, despite 19 barrels in games with Trackman, Keegan hit just 11 home runs in those games. A 12.5% Barrel rate is also a bit of a letdown as well given how hard Keegan hits the ball and how often he does so- he just doesn’t have the launch component down quite yet.

Dominic Keegan has an interesting BABIP profile. At first glance, he doesn’t look like all that with a 26th percentile Sweet-Spot% and a popup rate that is just 0.5% above league-average (good). He also hits 75.5% of his groundballs with a launch angle below 0° and when you are hitting as many of them as Keegan does that is especially problematic.

So why do I have the BABIP skill as an average skill? Keegan hits the ball stupid Hard with a 54% Hard-Hit rate (96th percentile) and when you do that stupid things happen. This is why Keegan was able to run a .423 career BABIP in four years at Vanderbilt. The skill will be slightly less impactful against better defenses but it’s still a difference-maker.

The other key thing you have to know about Dominic Keegan is that he has really well-optimized spin traits on his batted balls. Keegan has an average spin rate of 3105 RPMs on his batted balls. That is in the 86th percentile of college players. He also has an 86th percentile backspin% at 54.9%.

The consistent backspin on his batted ball created by the flatter bat path has a somewhat difficult to quantify impact but definitely affects how many of the flyballs to centerfield he is so fond of, get over the centerfielder's head. There is also the fact that Keegan hits the ball to all fields which helps tremendously with running a high BABIP.

Dominic Keegan has cut down on the whiffs by a significant margin this year at the expense of some of the game power. He is now making contact 79.4% of the time but perhaps more importantly, it’s an 86.4% in-zone contact rate. Keegan is hitting velocity at a solid clip with a 7.35% Swinging-Strike rate against 93+ and he is hitting breaking balls with just a 22.2% whiff rate against them this year. His worst pitch by whiff% is the changeup at just 30.8%. He’s not great against anything but he is at least solid against everything.

I do wonder how much of the contact gains are sustainable though. Keegan still has a major chase issue against sliders, expanding the zone for them 39.1% of the time. He still chases sinkers and weakly rolls them over and chases fastballs in on the hands that he struggles to drive with authority. I have some concerns with what will happen when those breaking balls are actually good and he can’t just wait for mistake pitches.

Keegan also swings through a lot of fastballs in the zone (17%) which even without velocity struggles to data does create long-term worry on my behalf. I don’t think the contact skills are as good as the numbers and think he’ll go back to whiff somewhat regularly. The wOBAcon skills should still make him a good bat but it won’t be an elite one, unfortunately.

Dominic Keegan is somewhat passive at the plate. He only swings 41.3% of the time and that’s not because he’s suddenly developed elite plate discipline. Keegan is still making average swing decisions, just slightly passive ones. The chase rate of 25.5% is solid and the 61% Z-Swing% is about as far below average as the chase rate is above-average. My concern with the plate discipline in relation to the slider being the pitch he swings the most often at was already mentioned above so I’ll refrain from rehashing that argument.

Dominic Keegan gets poor reviews behind the plate and I’m not any more optimistic. Runners stole 73% of bases on steal attempts against Keegan last year and the specs aren’t at all good either. The average pop time of 2.22 seconds is in the 8th percentile of college catchers. The 90th percentile pop time of 2.02 seconds is in the 8th percentile as well. His pure arm strength grades out slightly higher in the 47th percentile of average throw velocity and in the 53rd percentile of 90th percentile throw velo.

The actions behind the plate really are not that much cleaner. He’s a somewhat sluggish defender who struggles with blocking pitches in my looks. He’s a fringy backstop who gets some positive reviews for the framing ability which will be irrelevant by the time he is in the big leagues. I think Keegan probably winds up at first base in the long term given the arm’s limitations and lack of general defensive ability. I think that is probably for the best as it’ll preserve the bat’s potency better.

I’m not sure Dom Keegan really belongs in this blog. He’s a good prospect who I have a fourth-round grade on but despite his senior status, I don’t think he’s going to come that cheap. Dominic Keegan is really young for a senior. He won’t even be 22 on draft day. He also has the 5th year of eligibility remaining thanks to the pandemic. There is also one more thing to consider- NILs. Dominic Keegan is probably the best hitter at one of the best college baseball programs in the entire country. He stands to quite possibly make more on a NIL deal in college next year than most of the players on this list would get as their signing bonus. Keegan will come at a slight discount but I would be surprised if he even takes 50% of the slot value.

LF Angel Zarate, North Carolina

Angel Zarate doesn’t play a premium position and doesn’t hit for much power. He’s only a 55 runner also. So what’s the appeal? Mostly the fact that he’s a 5th year senior who will be 23 on draft day and likely sign for very cheap. Also, the fact that he’s hit at least .324 each of the last three seasons with an OPS over .920 in all of them.

Angel Zarate stands out because of his plus contact skills. He whiffs just 11.1% of the time on pitches in the strike zone. That isn’t a new development this year so it’s hard to argue it’s a product of over-exposure to the same bad competition. The contact rates are strong against every type of pitch too and seemingly all speeds. He’s just a legitimately good contact hitter with a short and compact swing that doesn’t get crossed up or fooled.

The other appeal of Zarate is swing decisions. Zarate is an aggressive hitter swinging 47.5% of the time but he’s not chasing with him sitting at just 29%. The zone-swing rates are what drive his swing rates as those sit at 73.9%. He’s against not showing major chase issues with any one pitch type or even strengths against any type. Once again, these aren’t a product of overexposure because this has been the case for three years now- if anything the discipline backed up this year.

Angel Zarate also shows a solid feel for the barrel with a 38.5% Sweet-Spot% and great launch angle tightness with a 26.5° sdLA. He has just a 3.4% popup rate in games with trackman and a line-drive rate just a hair under 30%. He also avoids very weakly hit balls somewhat with just a 23% softly hit rate. That number has to be viewed relatively. The average college player has a 29% softly-hit rate so for Zarate to hit that few balls under 80 MPH when he has such poor power speaks volumes of the barrel accuracy and consistency of it.

The power isn’t quite at Nick Madrigal levels or anything either. A 105.6 MPH max exit velocity is terrible and a 98.3 MPH 90th percentile EV might be worse. The one saving grace is that he hits the ball surprisingly hard when he pulls it. On 68 pulled batted balls this year he is running an average EV of 90.8 MPH. That still isn’t great for pullside contact but if he can more consistently pull the ball maybe you can dream on like 40 game power or something and the bat might profile in the majors as a result. It’s a long shot but there’s some upside there.

Angel Zarate is not going to be a huge asset on defense. He plays right field right now but with below-average arm strength, it seems unlikely that he remains there in the long term. Some scouts want to see him in centerfield because of how good his movements are and because of some spectacular plays but I don’t think he has the foot speed to play there. He’s a left fielder in my books albeit a good one. He’s also taken some reps at second base and we know how teams love versatile players. He’s a day three guy talent wise who will probably go on two to save some cash while still adding a draftable talent to your organization.

C Tatem Levins, Pittsburgh

Tatem Levins is a fourth year junior who will be 23 on draft day. He hit at least .300 with a .900 OPS for all three years he spent at La Salle and then transferred to Pittsburgh in order to face better competition in the ACC. He responded in the form of a career year where he hit .321/.435/.613.

Tatem Levins’ skillset is an interesting one that looks good at first glance. The catcher is solid or better at all of making contact, making quality contact, hitting the ball hard, swing decisions, and good feel to elevate. At least he is against ACC competition. But is it sustainable?

The contact skills look impressive at a glance with Levins only whiffing 18.6% of the time. If you zoom in and look at just within the strike zone he arguably looks better with a 12.3% Z-Whiff%. His breakdown in pitch types causes some concern.

Most players you worry about the inability to hit a particular thing you think of struggle recognizing spin, or catching up to velocity. On some occasions, you’ll see that they’re fooled by the changeup. Levins doesn’t share those plebian concerns. He’s no worse against velocity than he is every other fastball. He whiffs just 18.9% of the time against non-fastballs which is exceptional given that most players in college run a 40% whiff rate against non-fastballs. Tatem Levins? He can’t hit the four-seam fastball at all.

This isn’t a velocity issue because Levins is running just a 1.5% Swinging-Strike rate against sinkers in the sample size. This isn’t a vertical movement issue because he’s actually better against fastballs with above-average carry than those with below. This isn’t an elevation issue, he isn’t any worse against four-seam fastballs in the top half than the bottom and he still crushes sinkers in the top half.

The issue is the most curious of things- a lack of horizontal movement- when pitches are too straight he loses. I don’t understand how it works but apparently, that is his fatal flaw. He also struggles against curveballs without that much sweep too, interestingly enough. Maybe his pitch recognition is dependent on seeing the ball move laterally through the zone?

The issues with the four-seam fastball are bad though. He whiffs upwards of 30% of the time in the zone and chases just over 36% of the time as well. He gets bullied by the four-seam fastball and that’s the most common pitch. Maybe it’s a fixable issue but I don’t know how to fix it if it is because it’s not an issue I think I’ve ever seen before. The rest of the contact profile is fantastic if you think you can teach him to hit the four-seam fastball though.

The swing decisions are good against other pitches. He’s chasing at a slightly above-average rate while remaining aggressive in the strike zone. He’s particularly aggressive against the slider which does lead to some chases but he’s still whiffing on just 16.7% of swings against sliders so the chase issues are more of an annoyance than a red flag.

Tatem Levins has average raw power that I could probably successfully argue belongs to be graded higher. The Max EV is just 107.2 MPH but he has a 90th percentile EV of 104.9 MPH and a 105.2 MPH top 8th which is in the 83rd percentile of all college hitters. He hits the ball hard 42.9% of the time and does it in the air 67.9% of the time so he has a 13.1% barrel rate which is in the 93rd percentile of college hitters. The game power is there.

Tatem Levins is an interesting fit behind the dish. He’s not a great athlete and his framing does not draw positive reviews even if most will agree it’s gotten better this year. I know some people think he will be a first baseman long-term. I would probably agree if I thought catchers would remain a premium position in the world after the Robots takeover.

The arm strength is legitimately above-average. Levins has a 90th percentile throw velocity of 80.8 MPH and an average throw velocity of 71 MPH. Those figures are both above the collegiate average. The problem is that his transitions and pop is not so smooth. He has the 5th lowest average poptime in the country and the 6th slowest 90th. The arm has potential in the form of both strength and accuracy but doesn’t play due to the slower actions.

Tatem Levins is an intriguing day two option mostly because of the money he saves but he still offers the chance to make an impact in your organization. There is absolutely risk in the profile but he’s hinted at the ability to both hit for contact and power while also maybe profiling behind the dish. The risk would make him a day three guy without question at slot value but he will almost certainly sign for a lot less so a team will likely jump at him at day two.

2B/LF Hogan Windish, UNC Greensboro

Hogan Windish is a fourth year junior at UNC Greensboro for all four years. He struggled his first two years, was good his third, and then after a strong summer stint in the Coastal Plains League carried that momentum into an elite 2022 campaign where he hit .370/.485/.681. I’m writing this in early June while he still only has 11 plate appearances in the Cape Cod league but he’s OPSing over 1.000 with just one strikeout. If he keeps up his strong cape cod performance then he might finally get the hype he deserves from other outlets because the dude rakes.

The contact skills are surprisingly robust. Hogan Windish only whiffed 20% of the time this year and only 12.3% of his swings in the zone saw him come up empty. Windish didn’t see enough quality stuff at UNC Greensboro to get a perfect gauge on his hit tool but he only whiffed once on 51 pitches he saw at 91+. He also only whiffed 28% of the time against breaking pitches. He made contact against better pitching in the Coastal Plains League and hasn’t been overmatched in the Cape this year. There is some hit risk but I’m a believer.

The real concern here is how often Windish whiffed before this year in his fourth go around at the Southern Conference as a 23 year old. As recently as last year his strikeout rate was just over 27%. His gains this year where also in large parts tied to improved swing decisions as his chase rate dropped below 20% while he still ran a 70% Zone-swing%. You can pretty easily handwave swing decisions off as being more advanced than the competition. The on base upside was there this year but it could be a mirage. Unless he runs a .500 OBP in the Cape Code this month, we probably won’t get to know if it is before the draft.

The power potential is easier to buy in on despite the lackluster opposition he regularly faced because batted ball data is objective. Hogan Windish has a Max EV of 111.9 MPH which indicates plus raw power. His Top 8th EV of 109.1 MPH is in the 98th percentile of all college hitters and would indicate even better than plus raw power.

Hogan Windish also is getting to the plus raw power in games despite a somewhat average feel to elevate because so many of his balls are hit at optimal flight patterns. His barrel rate of 14.8% is in the 96th percentile of college hitters. He’s got an extreme pull tendency that turns those barrels into home runs and a lot of extra base hits even if it also causes him to weakly ground out into the shift.

Hogan Windish is a second baseman right now but he’s not a fantastic athlete and doesn't have the arm strength to play the left half of the infield. Some scouts see him being pushed to left field or even first base. Windish is a tweener defensively who is only versatile because he doesn’t really fit anywhere. No one is drafting Windish to play defense but because he hits.

The problems with Windish’s offensive game essentially just boil down to risk. The performance is new and the competition is weak so it probably won’t last. The real question we should be asking is what if it does stick?

Windish is one of just three players in the draft with a Top 8th EV over 109 MPH and a contact rate of at least 80%. The other two are likely first round picks in Ivan Melendez and Gavin Cross. This bat has big-time upside and on day two for super cheap I will absolutely chase that early round upside. I’d take him on day two even at full price too but I suspect most risk-averse front offices would not.

C Tyler McManus, LSU

The lack of draft hype surrounding Tyler McManus is one of the world’s greatest mysteries. He put up a 129 wRC+ in the SEC while catching and has even better underlying metrics but he can’t even crack the top 500 on any publications draft list. He’s a 23 year old junior who should be relatively cheap, especially given the lack of buzz surrounding him.

Tyler McManus hits the ball stupid hard. Like really stupid hard. In fact, Tyler McManus has the second-highest hard-hit rate in the entire country behind only Dalton Rushing with McManus at 59.3% of his batted balls being hit hard. Granted, that isn’t really reflective of McManus’ raw power. The Max EV is only 108.9 MPH (55 grade) and his Top 8th EV is only in the 83rd percentile. It’s good power but not the elite level that the hard-hit rate might suggest.

The game power is equally as good as the raw juice, however. He has an above-average feel to elevate with just a 37.7% groundball rate and that combined with the frequent hard contact leads to a robust 13.6% Barrel rate. That figure ranks in the 94th percentile of all college hitters (Min 50 BBE with trackman). He is hitting the ball hard at optimal angles and good things should be happening as a result.

Based on how good the power metrics are, it’s easy to imagine that McManus is a big power guy with swing and miss concerns and that is why he has so little draft hype. Except that is completely untrue. Tyler McManus has above-average contact rates with him sitting at 80.8% this season. Again, this is against SEC competition, not just him bullying terrible low-level opponents.

There is very little sign this won’t translate. He’s whiffed 40% of the time against fastballs at 93+ but that is a 10 swing sample size and not really that indicative of his true talent. He does struggle some with fastballs relatively- they’re actually his worst pitch by whiff rates this year and that’s not because he can’t catch up to velocity- it’s just a struggle to make contact with vertically moving pitches. He whiffs almost as much at lower velocity fastballs as high-velocity ones.

Tyler McManus makes up for his deficiency against fastballs by being one of the best breaking ball hitters in the entire country. McManus is only running an 11.4% whiff rate against breaking pitches. That is in the 94th percentile of all college hitters. Unlike most players who hit the breaking ball with regularity, McManus also has a 96th percentile hard-hit rate against breaking balls. There is no player who has a higher hard-hit rate with an equal or better whiff rate.

Of course, the important caveat here is that McManus despite- (or maybe because of) elite results against the breaking ball, McManus really isn’t that aggressive at swinging at breaking stuff. He swings just 31.3% against sliders and curveballs. McManus isn’t just not chasing although a 22.7% chase% against the softer stuff is encouraging. He is also not swinging at strikes with only a 41.5% Z-Swing% against breaking balls. There is upside here but his hit tool is no guarantee even with the ability to seemingly bully spin.

The real concern here with McManus is the BABIP profile is pretty pitiful. Tyler McManus for all of his elevated contact has one of the worst sweet-spot rates in the entire country. McManus is at 18.6% of his batted balls hit between 8–32°. That is in the 3rd percentile of all college players this year. McManus also pulls close to 60% of his groundballs and hits popups at an average rate. The BABIPs aren’t going to be there so despite liking the contact skills, I don’t really think he’ll hit for much average.

Tyler McManus can catch, I’m not sure exactly how good he is back there but he can at least crouch back there every game and hit while doing so. That should be enough with electronic strike zones. There is risk in the bat because he struggles against fastballs and has zero barrel accuracy but there is also a lot of upside here. As a day two target who will likely be significantly underslot I’m all in on Tyler McManus.

RP/SP Kristófer Bow, College of Southern Nevada (JUCO)

Kristófer Bow is a 22 year old currently enrolled in Junior College without a commitment to a bigger program. Given his age and schooling to date, I think it is pretty likely that Bow signs for somewhere in the range of 100K on day two. Maybe that isn’t the biggest discount on this list but it is still a discount and I want to talk about Bow.

Kristófer Bow throws pretty hard. He sits at 93 MPH and can reach back for as high as 97 MPH. It’s a plus feel for spinning it as well as he sits at about 2300 RPMs on average. The fastball has two variants he throws an almost perfectly equal amount.

The two-seam fastball with 10.8 IVB and 14.6 HB is a source of groundballs and called strikes at the bottom of the zone. It’s an average pitch optimistically, and only that because of his velocity though. There are very few situations where it is more effective than the four-seam fastball. The arm slot consistently undermines him and makes it unlikely for the sinker located to his arm side to have any effectiveness at the next level.

The four-seam fastball on the other hand grades out as a plus pitch in my looks. The pitch doesn’t have all that great of vertical movement but 16 IVB is still close to league average and it has solid tailing action still with 10.1 HB. More importantly, the four-seam fastball comes from a 5.6 ft release height and as such has a flatter VAA up in the zone.

Kristófer Bow has some struggles with elevating the aforementioned four-seam fastball but when he even locates it in the top half- even the bottom part of that top half, it has a 33.3% Swinging Strike rate in games with Trackman (33 fastballs in the top half). He gets a lot of in-zone whiffs with the heater and finds the zone semi-regularly with it. This pitch projects to miss bats at the game’s highest level as long as the command is respectable enough.

The sweeper is a second plus pitch in Bow’s repertoire. The slider doesn’t have crazy velocity sitting at just 81.7 MPH but that’s the only downside to the pitch specs. He has great spin averaging 2736 RPMs and even better movement. The slider has -2.2 IVB and 14.5 inches of sweep on average.

Here is a complete list of MLB sliders that average as much movement as Kristófer Bow on both planes: Aaron Bummer, Matt Brash, Glenn Otto, Sonny Gray, Drew VerHagen, Brad Hand, Justin Grimm, Mike Clevinger, John King, Justin Briuhl, and Yu Darvish.

That was a lot more than I thought there would be wow. They’re all good pitches but that is a tad bit overwhelming. Let’s filter that to only players who throw as hard of a slider as Bow does now for more accurate and elite-looking results. Here is every player in the MLB: Aaron Bummer, Matt Brash, and Yu Darvish. (Also José Berríos if you include curveballs). That’s much better. It’s a special slider movement profile.

The slider is made even better by the arm slot. Kristófer Bow throws from a very low arm slot that gives him an average release side of 2.98 feet. This further enhances the already great HAA’s created by the sweeping slider and makes his slider virtually unhittable.

In a small sample with Trackman this year (45 pitches), the slider results were video game-esque with a 28.9% Swinging-Strike rate, a 57.8% CSW%, a 50% in-zone whiff rate, and a 40.6% chase rate. There is some semblance of feel for locating the slider and the movement profile will absolutely play. This is an easy plus pitch to pair with the plus fastball.

The changeup is also somewhat interesting. Kris Bow does a decent job killing velocity and spin sitting at 86 MPH and 1939 RPMs. I actually like the movement profile a lot too. 4.6 IVB and 15.7 HB is above-average movement on both planes and would normally miss bats to the arm side. The problem is the arm slot. That same arm slot that makes the slider so elite leads to the arm side changeup getting zero chases.

If you look at pitchers from comparable release side (or the left handed version), the list of good changeups is far and few between. You have Max Scherzer, Zac Gallen, and Sean Manaea. Those pitches are only really good because of command and even how good they are is debatable as all three are below-average by CSW% this year. There is a road to success with a changeup from this slot but it’s a narrow one and I won’t assume Bow can walk it until he does it.

Kristófer Bow has control problems. He ran a 7.56 BB+HBP/9 innings at his JUCO this year. He struggles to find the zone and frequently misses spots. The batted ball is likely only average, especially if he follows my advice and ditches the sinker. I’ll give Bow a chance to start with his 2.5 pitch repertoire but I think he likely winds up in relief. The FB/SL combo should dominate in that role though and I have him ticketed for a high leverage gig in the not so distant future. I’ll gladly give him ~100K on day two in the 4th-6th round range and use the savings to splurge early in the draft.

I’m not scrapping this blurb because I still think it came out pretty well but since writing it, Kristófer Bow has committed to Arizona for the 2023 season so he might command more money now.

SP Jared Poland, Louisville

What do you think is the easiest mechanical tweak to make? I don’t know exactly what it is but I’d imagine that lengthening your stride length so it’s more than a singular inch is near the top of the list.

Jared Poland is a senior who has just 4.68 feet of extension on average and it costs him 3.1 MPH in effective velocity on his four-seam fastball and all of his other pitches as well. As a result, Poland is just not that good. Aside from the putrid extension, the stuff is quite good and I think the extension is very fixable so I still want him in the round 5–7 range.

Jared Poland sits at 92 MPH with plus vertical movement at 19.6 IVB on average and solid horizontal action as well at 12.2 HB. The release is very generic at a 5.91" release height and 2.01 release side but if he lengthened his stride even a little, the release height would almost certainly drop a bit as well and he would have elite VAA’s up in the zone as a result. He needs to improve his dip mobility but if he does the fastball could take off. There is also an occasional sinker with 15.8 IVB and 16.5 HB but I wouldn’t advocate for using it at all regularly.

The slider is another pitch that is severely hampered by Poland’s lackluster extension. He sits at 80.1 MPH with a spin rate of 2536 RPMs. He has -1.3 IVB on the slider and 13.3 inches of sweep on it as well. The velocity is a bit on the low end but it's a good shape and that is enough for the pitch to still be at least above-average.

The problem is, of course, the extension. There is a huge difference between an 80.1 MPH slider and a 76.9 MPH slider. One will play and the other absolutely will not at all. The results have sucked and I’m not at all surprised by that. The thing is, Jared Poland actually has good slider command and can regularly throw it for strikes. He is missing far too few bats because he has no effective velocity but he still has a 34.9% CSW% this year because he can locate. If he were to get to average extension, this could be argued as a plus pitch given the strong specs and advanced slider command.

The changeup rounds out his repertoire and is the lone pitch that presently has an above-average swinging-strike rate. It has a lot more than that though as his swinging-strike rate on 181 pitches sits at 23.8%. This makes sense, as the changeup should be the lone pitch mostly unaffected by extension. It’s the one that relies on separation from the fastball rather than pure velocity so losing the appearance of velocity does not matter much.

The changeup is good as is too. Jared Poland throws his cambio 7.1 MPH slower than the fastball and sits at a fairly low 1696 RPMs on average. The pitch has a solid albeit unspectacular movement profile with 8.5 IVB and 15.1 inches of armside run on average. The real appeal of the changeup though is the command at the bottom of the zone. Poland racks up both chases (37.9%) and in-zone whiffs (39%). The pitch dominates and should be at least above-average.

Jared Poland with one small tweak could have three above-average pitches and I think there is at least average command here as well. There is even a chance at a plus for all of them if adding to his stride length helps him engage the glutes and comes with a velocity jump. Right now, I would only put the changeup as average but I also think it’s really easy to see all of them as being above. I don’t really know how to value this profile. I like Poland in the round 6–8 range discounting his status as a senior citizen. A very intriguing target for a team confident in their pitching development department.

RP Brandon Johnson, Ole Miss

Brandon Johnson is a 23 year old reliever for the World Series Champion Rebels. This isn’t a conversion arm or a Ben Joyce with stupid stuff. This is, in fact, perhaps the only player in this blog who is not an upside play of some kind which is absolutely what I prefer in this part of the draft.

The fastball has two standout attributes. The fastball has a lot of vertical movement. Brandon Johnson averaged 21.5 IVB this year out of the bullpen. That is obviously an exceptional movement profile. He also throws his fastball harder than any other pitcher with as much vertical movement in road games (21.3 IVB) at 94.2 MPH on average. He has hit as high as 97.8 MPH this year. This combination of velocity and vertical movement on the fastball is only really matched by Zach Maxwell in this year’s draft. The former gets top three round buzz.

The fastball has 70 grade upside but make no mistake, it is not a plug and play arm by any means. Brandon Johnson has just 5.29 ft of extension on average. This means that his fastball plays down to just 92.3 MPH in effective velocity. If you scroll up an inch you can see that I think that is teachable. There is also the arm angle to consider. Johnson has fairly generic and probably subpar release traits. He throws from a 6.11 ft release height and a 1.48 ft release side. That hurts his VAA’s ever so slightly and doesn’t let the HAA’s standout either.

There is also the part where Brandon Johnson like most Ole Miss arms chooses not to elevate his fastball but instead is aggressive with pitching down and focusing on called strikes. This nullifies some of the effects of his fastball movement and even if his too frequent misses would hurt more as a result of elevating, the extra whiffs and weak aerial contact would likely make it a worthwhile exchange for Johnson.

The secondaries are not quite up to speed for Brandon Johnson. The breaking ball is his best weapon and it sits at just 79.4 MPH with -4.9 IVB and 7.9 inches of sweep. The HAA is generic from his slot and he lacks the power (Especially based on effective velocity) to actually miss bats. Below-average pitch.

The changeup is also very fringy. He sits at 85.2 MPH without killing more than 100 RPMs off of the fastball. The pitch has very little vertical depth with him averaging 15.3 IVB on the changeup, a number that is higher than some players four-seamers. The real appeal here is that he gets 17 inches of armside fade and has 9 MPH of velocity separation. The feel is completely lacking but there is some upside here probably.

Brandon Johnson throws strikes at a below-average rate. He only really has one quality pitch. This is a relief only look and probably not a high leverage on unless he develops a plus secondary. The appeal here is strictly an outlier elite fastball that makes him almost a lock to contribute in a big league bullpen someday. Johnson is more of a target because of the floor of the stuff with such a spammable fastball. He’s a senior who will be 23 and is relief only so he’ll likely demand no more than 20K too. That is a huge savings pick at the backend of day two of the draft.

LF Carlos Contreras, Sam Houston State

Colton Cowser went at #5 overall last year and it was Carlos Contreras, a transfer from Cisco Community College who was asked to fill his shoes in the outfield. Contreras did a lot more than that as he hit .400/.468/.713 in his only year with Sam Houston State which was a high Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, and OPS than Cowser ever put up in his three years with Sam Houston State. Contreras isn’t as good projection wise as Cowser obviously but he really can hit at the very least.

Carlos Contreras isn’t a data darling like most of the players in this blog. In fact, in the 110 pitch sample of Trackman data we have for Contreras, he looks completely underwhelming at first glance. His contact rates are below-average, he chases 36.2% of the time, and he maxes out at just 104.9 MPH. I disagree with the small sample data here and am instead choosing to primarily trust my eyes and the overall production that suggests Contreras is a stud.

Carlos Contreras does not have the best contact rates in the world because of how frequently he expands the zone in pursuit of breaking balls. In spite of that flaw, Contreras almost never strikes out with only 10.6% strikeout rate this year and he was even lower with Cisco CC last year. I don’t even think The 78.3% contact rate is that misleading, I think it just speaks volumes of how Contreras adjusts.

Carlos Contreras is tenacious at the plate. He’ll miss on the breaking ball down and then watch the second one in the same spot. If you are foolish enough to give him a third- even if it’s a great one, Contreras will punish you by collapsing his swing and selling out on the low pitch with a steep VBA and explosive power that will lead to an extra-base hit. If he misses on the fastball above the zone once, the next time he expands he’ll be ready and make contact. He is constantly adjusting and is too good of a hitter to be beaten twice by the same pitch. You have to get creative to strike Carlos out.

Carlos Contreras is a flush contact savant. He has a very flat VBA on pitches up in the zone and steepens out on pitches down when he is expecting them. He does swing through stuff when he guesses wrong- especially early in counts but he’s constantly optimizing his swing shape based on what he is seeing the pitcher throw.

The spin characteristics in a small sample are exceptional as a result. Carlos Contreras is hitting 67% of his batted balls with backspin in the small sample and he has an absolutely ridiculous average batted ball spin rate of 3500 RPMs. That doesn’t qualify for the 50 BBE leaderboard as he’s only at 21 BBE but if it did, he would be second in batted ball spin rate and third in backspin%.

The BABIP monstrosity skills go deeper than just producing a lot of flush contact. Contreras hits the ball at optimal angles with regularity and shows impressive barrel accuracy in all of my looks. He avoids a lot of mishits for the most part too even if there are some popups. Contreras hits the ball to all fields and shows power while doing so. There is major hit tool risk due to the subpar approach and breaking ball problems but there are also a lot of promising signs here so I still have a 55 grade on his hit tool.

Carlos Contreras packs a serious punch in his 5'10" frame with explosive bat speed and a strong lower half. At first glance, the Trackman data will make you doubt it with a 104.9 MPH Max EV and it came on a pulled flyball. His Top 8th EV is below average at 101.9 MPH. Sure it’s a small sample but that isn’t good in the slightest.

Except, Carlos Contreras also has one game in Globe Life Field with Hawkeye tracking his batted ball data. That one game he hit a ball at 105.7 MPH and that game is also enough to raise his Top 8th EV to the 66th percentile at 103.4 MPH. Okay, so it’s average power right? So what? That’s not exactly an impact bat.

Except there is one thing I neglected to mention before. Contreras posted that 105.7 MPH EV on an opposite field hit. The average max exit velocity to the opposite field has an EV roughly 5% lower than the same player’s max to their pullside. That would mean that Contreras theoretically has a 111 MPH EV which would above-average plus raw power.

This is very much believable to me given how the bat speed looks on film, and how strong he generally is. The production lines up with him having plus raw power as well. The feel to elevate isn’t quite there yet and sometimes he loses something when he collapses for the pitch down in the zone but I do think there is probably 55 game power in the bat of Carlos Contreras.

So what is the catch? Why does Carlos Contreras get so little draft hype despite both loud results and a potent hit/power combo? Carlos Contreras is probably the single worst breaking ball hitter in the entire draft. In games with trackman he had a 32% Swinging-Strike rate against the breaking ball and chased them 68.8% of the time. That is a small sample but it’s an ugly one to say the least.

On film, this tracks for the most part. Carlos Contreras is very aggressive at pursuing breaking balls early in the count and usually whiffs in the attempt. He puts himself in a hole early on as a result of his aggressiveness against the breaking ball. But as I said earlier, it hasn’t led to strikeouts because Contreras can adjust and if you throw him too many breaking balls he’ll punish you for it. Will that last at the next level against better breaking balls and smarter pitchers? That is very much up in the air.

Carlos Contreras is likely going to be limited to a platoon role as putting him in that place allows him to completely cut same-handed breaking balls out of his diet. Contreras pulverizes the fastball- even when it is thrown hard and he has little trouble with offspeed stuff. I think Contreras could be very good in a platoon role but as a left fielder, the value is pretty limited if he winds up in a platoon. Maybe he figures out how to hit breaking stuff and this becomes a moot point but for now, it’s a pretty big question mark.

I like platoons and as such, I like Carlos Contreras more than most people. He’s a senior who turns 23 this September so he’ll sign cheap. I think he’s likely to be a day two selection for way under the slot value but I would still take him in the back half of day two even if he didn’t save me any money. The bat is legit and he’s a very useful role player in all likelihood.

CF Chris Rotondo, Villanova

Chris Rotondo is a 23 year old fifth year senior at a not very good Villanova program. He’s been the best player on the team since 2019 but this year he really stepped up and was second in the Big East in both wRC+ and WAR.

The contact skills are quite strong. Rotondo made contact 85.3% of the time he swung the bat this year. That is in the 86th percentile of all college bats. His contact skills are partially because of advanced swing decisions with just a 9.4% Z-Whiff% but also that is still really freaking good.

He made contact against everything this year but in prior years he’s been exposed by breaking balls. He stopped chasing them this year with just a 20.8% chase rate but given the lack of exposure to actually good breaking stuff, I think it’s plausible the whiffs come back when he enters pro ball. He has no issues with murdering fastballs though and is one of the best offspeed hitters in the draft statistically.

The plate discipline is advanced but I think there is a distinct possibility he collapses against higher quality stuff. The 64% Zone-Swing and 22.1% chase rate are both above-average but it feels flimsy. The breaking balls are a real problem. I already mentioned the chase risk but even with his current lack of chases, they are his worst pitch by CSW by a fairly wide margin because he only swings at 45.8% of the ones in the strike zone. His strategy against breaking balls is to never swing and that will work less and less as command improves at the higher levels.

The power is at least above-average and probably a plus in actuality. Rotondo has a Max EV of 111.5 MPH and a Top 8th EV of 107 MPH. The Hard-Hit rates are good as well at 44.1%. He is making most of that hard contact in the air with a 96.1 MPH average air EV and puts the ball in the air at a league average rate. The result is a 12.2% Barrel rate that ranks in the 92nd percentile of all college hitters. Quality of competition is inflating the game power, but it’s plus raw and 55 game still.

The BABIPs have been high since his sophomore season so it’s not hard to believe in the skill being real and note a mirage of his age. The launch angle tightness from Rotondo is incredible as he ranks in the 92nd percentile at 23.3° on average.

Despite that, I have concerns. Rotondo has poor spin characteristics on his batted balls in the college crop. His average spin rate of 2642 RPMs ranks in the 16th percentile. His backspin% of 40.7% is in the 24th percentile. This reduces carry, kills BABIPs, and hurts the game power.

Rotondo might be an adept hand at avoiding popups and mishits with terrible launch angles but the same isn’t true for his EVs. Rotondo hits 28.8% of his batted balls with an exit velocity below 80 MPH. Those poorly hit balls are easy outs against good defenses, even when the launch angles are solid and tightly compressed. Rotondo also struggles greatly with hitting the ball to the opposite field and I worry that he’ll be eaten up by more flexible defenses. I only have the BABIP ability as average despite elite launch angle tightness and great power.

The good news is Chris Rotondo should provide some defensive value. He’s probably not going to stick in centerfield as only a 55 runner but I think he’ll be quite good in right field. He’s got a quick get-off and covers a surprising amount of ground out there. Rotondo also has above-average arm strength even if there are some accuracy questions. He’s not a defensive stalwart but he certainly will play the field every day and not hurt you in any way.

Chris Rotondo is one of just three players in the college crop this year who have a contact rate over 84% and a top 8th EV of at least 107 MPH. The other two are top 25 players in Ivan Melendez and Eric Brown. Rotondo did it against a lot worse competition and is older with less of a track record but he still did what so few players could do. He’s got some risk but I like him as a day three option or a significant underslot on day two. Contact and power is hard to find in the same player but Rotondo offers just that.

RP Gordon Ingebritson, UC Irvine

This is my super money saver pick ala Riley Martin who signed for just $1,000 out of the draft last year with the Cubs in the sixth round. Ingebritson comes from a smaller program and will turn 24 in August. He’s also exclusively a reliever and one without fantastic stuff so he’ll be very very cheap. He’s not good but he has a relatively high chance of making the majors one day where he could provide some value as a low leverage relief option.

Ingebritson sits at just 82.6 MPH with his fastball and tops out at 84.7 MPH. He has poor extension at 5.6 ft on average so it actually plays down even further to just 81.3 MPH. There is pretty much no velocity projection in his frame. The calling card here is the arm angle obviously.

The fastball comes from a 3.03 ft release height. That is a lower release height than any MLB pitcher not named Tyler Rogers or Adam Cimber. That borderline submarine-style delivery and release make him very hard to square up and hit hard even without velocity.

The sinker also has a very unique movement profile. The pitch is thrown with -6.4 IVB on average. Only four fastballs (Sinker or four-seam) have as little IVB as Ingebritson. He also averages 19.2 inches of horizontal movement which would be the second most horizontal movement on a sinker in the majors this year behind only Phillips Valdez. The combination of drop and tail has never been matched by an MLB arm and probably never will be- even by Ingebritson himself because Gordon is unlikely to reach the majors.

The curveball is just as interesting. It’s listed as a curveball but more accurately it’s a slider in all honesty. The pitch has less IVB than any curveball in the majors and the fourth most sweep of any curve so it really feels miscast as one since the only label that really fits here is velocity.

The slider sits at just 71.7 MPH but it should still be an above-average pitch. He has 97th percentile sweeping action on it at 17.8 inches of sweep on average. From a 2.61 RelSide, you can bet the HAA is even more impressive too. The more impressive part of the slider for me, however, might be the vertical action on the slider though as he gets just 5.8 IVB. The slider hangs up in the zone for a long time and even has the illusion of rise.

Why does this matter so much? To better express the value of this vertical movement profile on the slider we need to convert our movement numbers to consider gravity in the calculation. The slider drops 51 inches on average. The sinker on the other hand drops 47.9 inches on average.

That is the beauty of Gordon Ingebritson, the pitch tunneling potential. Ingebritson has two pitches with basically the same drop that are separated by 10.9 MPH and move in the complete opposite directions. The slider moves 17.8 inches to the glove side and the sinker 19.2 inches to the armside. That is 37 inches of horizontal movement separating them with almost no difference in the vertical element. Good luck, hitting that. You are going to need it. Ingebritson had a chase rate over 40% against both pitches this year and that tunneling ability is why.

Gordon Ingebritson also can throw both pitches for a strike with regularity. His walk rates have consistently been among the lowest in the league during his college tenure and it’s hard to see that changing. The batted ball profile should be rife with groundballs and he’ll allow very few barrels I would imagine.

The profile is a very high risk given the velocity and that neither of the pitches is all that on their own. There is also the fact that the batted ball profile was more above-average than plus in 2021. He’s already 24 and isn’t exactly a plug and play guy. There is upside here for Ingebritson but he's a 30 FV for a reason. The only reason to draft him on day two is as a super money-saving option- teams go that route every year and Ingebritson is my preferred target if I need to save that much cash.

3B/2B Matt Frey, Michigan

Matt Frey might be signable for the minimum 1K offer. Actually, there is no might there. Matt Frey is a 5th year senior who turns 26 this November and only had a .986 OPS in the Big Ten. The age is a huge factor but if we pretend Frey is 21, I probably have a third round grade on him. Can the age really mean that much? The answer is almost certainly yes.

Matt Frey plays 2B/3B and looks to be average at both of them. He’s an average athlete with an average arm. I like him best at third base but second base might be easier due to some arm accuracy questions. He has solid hands and covers ground though so I still like his chances.

The contact rates are strong with Frey sitting at 83.3% this year and just 8.8% whiffs in the strike zone. There is just a 10% whiff rate on fastballs at 93+. Frey is nearly as good against breaking pitches as well with just a 17.9% whiff rate against them. His worst whiff pitch is actually the four-seam fastball- particularly up in the zone which he also chases too frequently.

Most players with an issue against the high fastball are steep VBA hitters who can’t actually get the barrel up in the zone. That is not Matt Frey. Frey has a very flat swing, his struggles up in the zone appear to be a vision issue. He just doesn’t see the high fastball well and struggles with actually recognizing it when the pitch is rising above his bat. He also struggles to see arm side movement- particularly when it moves away from him. When the fastball is in the zone he pulverizes it but he doesn’t recognize the late movement and that’s his kryptonite.

The approach is a tad bit aggressive but overall average and arguably even above. Frey swings at just 27.5% of out-of-zone pitches while swinging at 70.5% of the ones in the strike zone. His Z-Swing% is no lower than 60% against any pitch type (Curveballs) and his chase rate is no higher than 30.8% against any pitch (Sinkers). He’s remarkably consistent against everything and there is some value in that.

The power is the real calling card here. Matt Frey maxes out at 110.6 MPH on aerial contact. The top 8th EV is 108.2 MPH which is in the 96th percentile of all college hitters. His 49.5% Hard-Hit rate is in the 87th percentile. His average EV of 91.4 MPH is in the 95th percentile. Frey has plus raw juice to say the least.

Even if we compare him to players his age- aka major leaguers, his Max EV is in the 72nd percentile and his top 8th EV is well above the MLB average 105.7 MPH Top 8th EV. Frey’s top-end EVs should be largely unaffected by his competition so it’s not hard to believe this element of his game is for real at the very least.

That was 92nd EV, not Top 8th but his Top 8th EV of 107.6 MPH still clears the MLB average and is in the 98th percentile of college players.

The game power lags a tad bit behind the raw power even if I’m not entirely sure why that is. Matt Frey hit just 34.6% of batted balls on the ground this year and is in the 82nd percentile in OFFB%. There isn't a problem with too much elevation here either as Frey hit just one popup in a game with trackman this year. The average spin rate and backspin% are both above league-average. The lack of game power comes down to just one thing. Frey only pulls 7.3% of outfield flyballs. 73.2% of his outfield flyballs are hit out to centerfield.

The BABIP skills are interesting. Frey is a lefty who pulls 70.3% of groundballs which leads to him getting eaten up by the shift. He also has a below-average sweet-spot rate. Frey avoids mishits at an elite level but he doesn’t have that many well-struck balls independent of their EVs. Given his age, this is especially concerning as barrel accuracy is often inflated by how advanced the player is relative to their competition.

Matt Frey has a lot of risk. He’s old as dirt and isn’t exactly a premium athlete. The draw here is power and contact though. There were only four players in college baseball this year with a contact% of at least 82% and a top 8th EV of at least 108. Those four were Ivan Melendez, Tyler Locklear, Daniel Susac and Matt Frey. Three of those names are getting some first round buzz. The fourth one might sign for 0.01% of what the cheapest of the other three get. Yes, he is old and hasn’t really produced but the hard baseball skills are strong and there is promise here. He scraps a late day three grade from me, but I’d be tempted on day two in order to save money.

Big Names Who Could Go Underslot

This section is solely speculation based on what leverage the player has and will absolutely be controversial. I am only writing one paragraph on why they might be cheap and nothing more on these players.

SP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt

Kumar Rocker failed to sign out of the draft last year after the Mets took him at #10 overall due to some medical issues/character concerns that arose in the process. Rocker opted to go to Indy Ball this year instead of returning to Vanderbilt. Rocker has no leverage in signing bonus negotiations whatsoever this go around.

He doesn’t have a plan B if he doesn’t sign. Going back to Tri-City for a second year won’t boost his stock anymore. He can’t refuse to sign again in hopes of making more money next year. He has to take it or leave whatever is on the table. The one leverage he has is to threaten to follow in the footsteps of fellow Boras client, Carter Stewart and go to the NPB instead before coming over as a real free agent once he turns 25.

RP Ben Joyce, Tennessee

Ben Joyce has record-breaking velocity but coming off a Tommy John surgery and with no track record of health, him not signing would be the pinnacle of foolishness. Joyce throws too hard for there not to be health concerns and it seems impossible for another year to make his stuff look better. The risk is very high for little to no payoff so he’ll almost certainly take whatever is offered. even if it’s a lot less than he deserves.

1B Ivan Melendez, Texas

Ivan Melendez is a redshirt Junior who will be 23 next year and it seems impossible for his stock to be higher as he won a Golden Spikes award and is literally the best hitter in the entire draft. He won’t be dirt cheap but I don’t think him only getting ~75% of the slot value is at all unreasonable. Of course, you could easily argue against him being as cheap as some people claim because he just won the Golden Spikes award and if he returned to college would likely make a sizeable heap of cash in NILs.

Thanks for reading! Tomorrow is the big one! My entire MLB Draft Top 500 and over 200,000 words of draft content in one day! If you can’t wait that long to read more, I encourage you to check out my blog on the ideal Draft Philosophy or my piece on players who haven’t performed but are still future stars.