What is the real killer, Covid-19 or lockdowns?: A data analysis

33 min readMay 28, 2020

Science used to be about independent people examining observations, agreeing, disagreeing and eventually attempting to come to a consensus. We now find ourselves in a dangerous situation where this is no longer the case. Anyone who expresses disagreement with the official narrative is silenced through censorship, expertise is no longer relevant. The finding in this analysis of the raw data is an important step towards exposing the truth.

The motivation for writing this article

Before studying the data for this analysis I really had no idea what I would find from this investigation. I had recently noticed, while glancing at the weekly death reports from the USA, that there seemed to be a huge spike in excess deaths that correlated very closely to the implementation of the lockdown, with no noticeable excess deaths prior to this.

This immediately seemed suspicious because I’d expect deaths from a new virus to show up in the total death statistics even before countries were testing for it. I would not expect a random spike in deaths from a virus 14-weeks after a virus emerged with absolutely no gradual increase in the weeks before.

I theorised that the excess deaths were only occurring during the weeks of the lockdown from a range of things not related to Covid-19. This could potentially be due to a combination of factors, during the lockdowns, and the week or so prior where hospitals were gearing up and fear was at its highest, leaving many to die at home due to:

Hospitals cancelling critical planned procedures to free up space and staff for Covid-19 patients.
Governments urging people not to visit hospitals.
Banning visitors to hospitals.
Significant policy changes in elderly nursing homes.
People being generally too scared of catching Covid-19 at the hospital and choosing to stay at home.

To test the theory I decided to gather all the publicly available mortality data for Europe, the USA (2017–2020) and England & Wales (2015–2020).

The following is a very long article but contains an important and detailed analysis of a large amount of historical mortality data. Please take your time to read the full article and if you find the information interesting or even alarming then please share this wherever you can. You can read my other Covid-19 articles here: https://medium.com/@tikmann

Summary

I don’t normally include a summary in my articles but owing to the length of this one I’ll add a tl;dr here:

The cumulative deaths over the past two years show an excess of 8,879 in England and Wales and a deficit of 27,958 in the rest of Europe compared to the two year period prior. This is in stark contrast to the reported 152,533 Covid-19 deaths in the same regions.

Until the start of lockdowns, rolling 2-year cumulative deaths were at a significant deficit; despite occurring throughout a 15 week period since Covid-19 emerged. A sudden spike in weekly excess deaths followed immediately after lockdowns & healthcare restrictions were imposed.

The weekly excess deaths occurring over an 8 week lockdown period totalled 141,426 in the USA and England & Wales compared to 117,332 deaths recorded as Covid-19. Furthermore, it has been established that deaths FROM Covid-19 have been vastly artificially inflated through suspect recording methods, where at least 90% of recorded Covid-19 deaths are actually due to existing comorbidities. This leaves at least 24,000 excess deaths known to have been caused by the governments’ response and raises a big question about the rest.

At least 43% of reported Covid-19 deaths have happened in elderly care homes that house just 0.62% of the population. The median age of deaths recorded as Covid-19 is 84, almost 3 years higher than life expectancy at 81.4 years. 30% more men have reportedly died of Covid-19 than women; this is identical to how many more men die prematurely than women.

Considering the demographic of Covid-19 deaths, medium-term cumulative death rates and the correlation of weekly excess deaths to restricted healthcare policies, the only reasonable conclusion is that the governments’ response to Covid-19 has been responsible for a vast majority of the fatalities.

Why is it important to look at the total and excess mortality?

The Covid-19 figures as reported by governments and national health ministries do not necessarily reflect the true death toll of the pandemic. The number of Covid-19 cases reported heavily depend on how many tests are done and the number of Covid-19 deaths reported heavily depend on how deaths are classified.

There have been serious concerns raised about the accuracy of the Covid-19 death rates due to the way they have been reported to the point where the figures produced have been rendered fairly useless. Reported Covid-19 deaths could be from a Covid-19 positive test or just having related symptoms without a positive test. Note: I acknowledge there are also multiple doubts about the reliability of Covid-19 testing, however, this topic requires an article by itself to give a measured assessment and is not considered in this analysis.

Furthermore, hospitals in the USA are given financial incentives to report deaths as Covid-19 deaths.ʳ¹ Importantly, deaths reported as associated with Covid-19 does not mean the person died FROM Covid-19. This all leads to a vast over-representation of the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 as you will see in the following analysis.

Therefore, the number of people who genuinely died from Covid-19 may differ from the publicly reported figures. The actual death toll or excess deaths may be further complicated where lockdowns have been implemented or even just where there have been restricted healthcare policies. The restriction to healthcare and fear generated by the mainstream media may be a bigger factor than the lockdowns themselves.

Reported Covid-19 cases & deaths should be approached with caution. It is far more important to look at the overall mortality data for the following reasons:

Official death reporting systems may be insufficient to accurately measure mortality and correctly assign Covid-19 deaths.
The pandemic may result in increased deaths from other causes for a number of reasons including weakened healthcare systems; fewer people seeking treatment for urgent illnesses, unavailability of screening, cancelled appointments and less available funding & treatment for other diseases (e.g. HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis).
The pandemic may result in fewer accidental deaths such as from traffic accidents.
The potential increase in deaths from secondary effects of lockdowns such as suicides and domestic violence.

To truly understand the mortality consequences of the pandemic including the response, we cannot rely on reported Covid-19 deaths alone. We must also look at the excess deaths that we see across populations.

NOTE: Please be clear that two very important things are being presented throughout this whole article. 1) The cumulative deaths over rolling 2-year periods and 2) a huge spike in excess deaths over a specific 8-week period throughout the lockdowns. The way the data are presented can sometimes be confusing but remembering this point should help you follow along. The two perspectives may seem contradictory but they are finally presented together and show a clear picture of the situation.

Cumulative deaths

Plotting cumulative deaths gives us a better idea of the real situation regarding medium-term population mortality. Every day a lot of people die; deaths each day, or even week can vary significantly. Comparing deaths on a week by week basis does not give us the true picture of what’s going on; a 50% spike in deaths on a particular week would indicate something extraordinary has happened but it does not mean these are excess deaths over a longer time frame. Over a longer period of time (such as two years, medium-term) the death rate normalises, meaning that for every 2-year period we should expect to see a specific and fairly consistent number of deaths. If you get a winter season with relatively few deaths, it’s likely that the following year you’ll see an increase; ultimately these two years will average out to something more similar to the two years prior.

For example, in England & Wales, over a 104-week period, you would expect to see 1.09 million +/- 2% deaths, based on the data from the previous 6 years. All the data presented in this article has been population adjusted for 2020 to make comparisons as accurate as possible.

The above graph shows how the total number of deaths (In Europe and the USA) increased since Covid-19 emerged. The chart shows two lines for Europe and two for the USA. One dashed line for each region is the sum of 2017 & 2018, the solid line is the sum of 2019 & 2020.

This gives us a clearer overview of the situation for exactly how many people usually die. Visualising the data in this way, we see how ordinary the statistics are, with the most recent two winter seasons tracking very closely to the two winter seasons prior.

The chart for England & Wales tells a similar story, however, you can see a more pronounced deviation in the trend when the UK lockdowns start. With everything that’s happened from lockdowns and Covid-19, we still only see 16,507 (2019/20 total minus 2017/18 total) excess deaths during this winter season period (Week-50 to Week-19 in this case); classically the winter season may not normally be considered to extend into April / May.

Until Week-12 when lockdowns were just getting started there had been far more deaths in 2017/18 than in 2019/20.

At this point, some people may be thinking that you can’t just look at a section of the year (as shown above) because the full year’s data is not being considered and it, therefore, is not an accurate account of all the recent years’ deaths. That would be a fair point so I have also included the same charts but for the full year-long periods:

You’ll notice that by observing the full years’ data sets, the data sets track even closer together, looking even less abnormal.

Based on your initial observations from these charts, the first major questions are:

Does this chart show any indication of something out of the ordinary that warrants a global shutdown?
Based on everything that has happened so far in 2020 and what you’ve been told by governments, mainstream media and pure Covid-19 death figures, would you not expect to see a colossal increase in deaths shown on this chart?

I’d also like you to think about these two points:

Were there mass panics and a global pandemic in 2017/2018?
Did we have a global shut down in 2017/2018?

I hope that, just from this initial analysis of the data, you are already questioning what is really going on here.

To make things even clearer we can plot the same data in a slightly different way by showing just the difference between the two periods of interest for each region:

A negative number represents fewer deaths by that week compared to 2017/2018; a positive number represents an excess. All regions show a similar trend; the difference in cumulative deaths become increasingly negative until they reach a minimum which begins to increase sharply around the time lockdowns start.

At the week where the biggest deficit in excess deaths was reached, the cumulative deaths during the 2019/20 period in Europe, the USA and England & Wales respectively were 109,829, 61,433 and 30,375 lower than the number recorded during the 2017/18 period. This reduced death toll occurred right up to the point respective regions locked down.

The year chart shows the full picture of how excess deaths have varied. Throughout the 14 week period of Week-50 to Week-11 where Covid-19 was spreading throughout the world with little restriction, all regions experienced a period with noticeably lower mortality rates right up to the point countries began to implement lockdowns and restrictions on healthcare. At that point the death rate suddenly began to spike, rising towards or through 2017/18 cumulative deaths to where we are at Week-19.

You can see Europe and England & Wales are still within a normal range, however, by Week-19 at the time of writing, the USA is standing at an excess of 60,063 deaths over a 2-year period. The sudden spike in deaths that we see in the data has certainly accelerated, concentrated and brought forward the deaths that are expected to occur over the course of the full year or two. It’s not unreasonable to expect that over the next few months to a year, these excess numbers will return to the baseline medium-term death rate trends. Mortality is naturally maintained at a fairly constant rate. An unnatural human intervention such as disrupting a finely balanced healthcare system will, of course, show up in the data.

Table 1: The table above shows the excess deaths since Covid-19 emerged and the excess deaths between the full 2-year periods. This is the numerical data corresponding to the two charts above. Figures from this table will be used throughout the rest of this article.

I acknowledge that there are excess deaths occurring above normal levels overall and the spike in deaths is a serious issue regardless of the exact cause, which isn’t 100% clear. This excess may be almost exclusively caused by lockdowns or, may be due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing Covid-19. Regardless of the reason for this excess, the real situation is that the USA has a 1% increase in deaths but across the three regions, we only see an increase of 0.36%. It’s not uncommon to see this value vary between +/-2% so I don’t see anything out of the ordinary going on.

Interestingly we can actually see that Europe’s 2-year death rate is still 0.62% lower than experienced in 2017/2018. Without considering any other data I urge you to seriously consider if a pandemic ever existed. Europe’s data, consisting of 21 countries are showing lower deaths than in 2017/2018. How can you have a pandemic with fewer deaths? This is data including 7 of the 15 apparently hardest-hit countries in the world by total Covid-19 deaths.

This is the hard data which supports an alternative explanation to SARS-Cov-2 being directly responsible for the peak in deaths. It appears that governments’ poorly considered response was the trigger that caused a correction back to normal medium-term mortality trends. This is not a wild claim or opinion, it’s clearly shown in the data.

A closer look at weekly deaths

So now we’ve established the level of expected deaths and shown that they are within a normal range we can look at the specific period where the death rate spiked.

Here is a table of all the European countries included in the data and their lockdown period (Covid-19 reported deaths are as of 10/05/2020; the end of Week-19 which corresponds to the mortality data):

Table 2: USA lockdown started between 19–24th March (Week 12–13) depending on the state.

The above graph shows the combined weekly deaths from all the European countries listed above compared to the USA over the entire period since Mid-Dec 2019 when SARS-CoV-2 emerged to Week-19 at the time of writing.

The data clearly shows that for the first 13-weeks, the weekly deaths for both Europe and the USA were well below the 2017–19 levels; this is the 13-week period after Covid-19 emerged compared to the previous three years with no Covid-19. The data clearly shows there are no extra people dying from a deadly virus during this whole period.

Exactly after lockdowns and healthcare restrictions begin in Europe and the USA, a spike in deaths follows immediately. We can see exactly the same in England & Wales:

The data has been partially corrected to account for reporting delays around the new year.

The years 2015 & 2018 were particularly bad years so it’s useful to compare them with 2020 to show that an abnormal level of deaths has not been occurring. The data show that the first 15-weeks of the 2020 winter season follows a similar pattern to 2015/18, just with fewer deaths. The exact week lockdowns and healthcare restrictions began, the number of deaths spiked: No excess deaths right up to lockdown, no evidence of a virus killing a noticeable amount of people for 15 weeks, then a sudden massive spike after the lockdown began.

New York City shows the same thing:

The death rate in NYC is extremely consistent. The data for 2020 are almost identical to the previous three years’ average, showing no excess deaths right up to the point that health care restrictions begin and major fear kicks in; no excess deaths, no evidence of a virus killing people for 14 weeks. The moment lockdowns are implemented we see a sudden massive spike in deaths.

How likely is it that Covid-19 spread all over the world for at least 14 weeks, not killing anyone, then within a two-week period, deaths spiked all over the world independently of each other? Did Covid-19 spread to every country and explode at almost exactly the same time? Is it just a coincidence that death rates spike the moment healthcare is restricted, the moment the elderly are isolated with less care & contact?

Sweden responded in a similar way to other countries by restricting access to hospitals, cancelling planned procedures, reducing care & contact in elderly nursing homes and also had a population fearful to go to the hospital.

Despite Sweden not completely implementing a full lockdown, the elderly & vulnerable were still affected by the reduced medical care and media fear in the same way as other countries. I don’t have the breakdown of Sweden’s historical mortality data available but I would expect the excess deaths to have risen around the same time policies limiting healthcare were introduced in Week-12.ʳ²

This sudden abnormal spike in deaths over an 8-week period after lockdowns started resulted in a large excess of deaths when compared to the previous 5-year average over the same weeks. This data is shown in the table below:

Table 3: Firstly it’s important to notice that when looking at just the specific weeks when Covid-19 deaths were reported, the number of excess deaths in the USA and England & Wales is higher than the reported Covid-19 deaths.

Interestingly, this is not the case in Europe. 7 of the 21 countries in the European dataset make up over 94% of all the reported Covid-19 deaths (the remaining 14 countries making up less than 6%). I don’t have the full breakdown but if we could separate the data from those 7 countries I would predict we would see a similar trend as the USA and England & Wales with excess deaths far outstripping Covid-19 deaths. The remaining 14 countries may be responsible for skewing the data with negative excess deaths.

Respiratory disease

Covid-19 is from a SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus. Covid-19 is a respiratory disease.ʳ³ The dataset explains that both Covid-19 and respiratory disease can be listed on the death certificates and deaths will appear in the figures for Covid-19 and respiratory disease.

It’s been reported that Covid-19 doesn’t always cause respiratory problems, however, with such a large number of reported Covid-19 related deaths, we would expect to also see a spike in respiratory disease deaths. This hasn’t happened.

This above graph shows a comparison of weekly respiratory disease deaths throughout the winter season of 2020 compared to the previous 5 years. There seems to be nothing out of the ordinary happening here. To make this clearer I’ve presented the same graph and averaged the previous 5 years:

On the above graph, we can now see a small spike in respiratory disease deaths around the time reported Covid-19 deaths begin to increase. The spike in deaths could be related to Covid-19 but is fairly insignificant compared to the reported Covid-19 deaths as visualised in this graph below:

The above graph shows the excess deaths from respiratory disease is nowhere close to matching the Covid-19 deaths. How is it that reported high numbers of Covid-19 deaths are not reflected in the numbers of respiratory disease deaths? This is fine if it’s just a reporting technicality.

Excess deaths

From the data I’ve presented here, I’m not convinced it’s possible the excess deaths are from Covid-19 in the manner we have been led to understand. There is a freakish correlation of excess deaths with lockdown implementation; a dangerous experiment in restricting vulnerable and sick people from healthcare; an event you’d expect to cause significant suffering. Even if we ignore the obvious and blindly say that all 40,984 excess deaths (From the USA, Europe and England & Wales, see Table-1) were from Covid-19, then where are the remaining 191,586 (see Table-3) reported Covid-19 deaths? The mortality data just does not add up.

The public has been led to believe that there are a large number of Covid-19 deaths occurring. This simply isn’t true! The raw data published by authorities does not support it; this is not an opinion, this is an observable fact that anyone can study for themselves.

The data from England & Wales are far more detailed and we can study the 8-week period between Week-12 to Week-19 more closely. This is almost the entirety of the lockdown period of March 23 to May 13.

During these 8 weeks, there was a spike in deaths above the expected 5-year average of 48,321. This spike corresponds to a correction back to the expected baseline mortality rate that has already been shown. It wouldn’t take much to make this happen and certainly doesn’t require a virus to be the cause.

“Of the 33,841 deaths that occurred in March and April 2020 involving Covid-19 in England and Wales, 30,577 (90.4%) had at least one pre-existing condition, while 3,264 (9.6%) had none. The mean number of pre-existing conditions for deaths involving Covid-19 in March and April 2020 was 2.3.”ʳᵈ⁵

This massive over-reporting of Covid-19 deaths has been a common theme throughout the whole saga. Over 90% of supposed Covid-19 deaths in England & Wales have been from pre-existing medical conditions. Depending on the region and the data, anything from 1–10% of reported Covid-19 deaths may actually be FROM Covid-19. It seems fitting that the remaining 44,333 other excess deaths since Week-12 account for the 38,003 two year rolling deficit of cumulative deaths accrued by this point.

The remaining 6,330 excess deaths could easily be attributed to the unprecedented healthcare service disruption; it represents just four days of normal deaths. It’s important to put things into perspective.

Covid-19 and general mortality demographics

According to Worldometers statistics for New York City, 99 of 15,230 Covid-19 reported deaths did not have underlying medical conditions, that’s just 0.65%.ʳ⁴ Similar statistics were reported from Italy with 99% of Covid-19 related deaths having 1 or more comorbidities.ʳ⁵ This is extremely important information, showing that almost exclusively, deaths reported as Covid-19 involve other medical conditions (this was also covered in the previous section).

The general public responds very well to instructions when they’re scared. The more extreme the instructions, the more scared you need to make them. Producing high death rates from a mystery virus is a good way to approach this. To misrepresent and obfuscate the statistics in order to massively inflate Covid-19 death reports, you need real people dying.

Healthy people rarely die so it’s difficult to report Covid-19 deaths of healthy people who haven’t died. If in the vast majority of cases, Covid-19 isn’t actually killing people, then you need to find other suitable deaths to report on; suicide, alcohol poisoning, car crashes, shootings, skydiving accidents, drownings and shark attacks do not cut it (although amazingly Covid-19 deaths have been reported from some of these causes).ʳ⁶ To massively inflate the Covid-19 death reports, you need deaths from other less clear-cut causes. It’s also more difficult to classify people that die of old age (non-Covid-19 related symptoms), as a genuine Covid-19 death compared to people who die prematurely, of illnesses that are easier to attribute to Covid-19.

Any deaths that remotely match the wide range of supposed Covid-19 conditions are being classified as Covid-19 deaths. This is true in cases without a positive Covid-19 test or when a positive Covid-19 test occurs but the death is completely unrelated i.e. those listed above.

The cause of death profiles of infants 5 and under, and children 14 and under are very different from the rest of the population. Road accidents and drowning are two of the leading causes of death for children, whereas the most common cause for all adult age groups is cardiovascular disease.ʳ⁷ It is difficult for Covid-19 to be misattributed to children 14 and under as they generally do not die from disease based causes. Therefore it’s reasonable that children would not feature proportionally in Covid-19 death reports. Historically, children have been and are still susceptible to serious viruses which further raises suspicions about the legitimacy of the supposed threat from SARS-Cov-2.

I’ve heard numerous accounts of relatives being coerced into letting doctors put Covid-19 on death certificates, even when the deaths have had nothing to do with Covid-19. People have even been bribed with all funeral costs being covered in exchange for allowing false information to pass on death certificates. Another common story we’re hearing now is elderly relatives dying from neglect in care homes during the lockdowns. You can take it with a pinch of salt but the following is a quote from a common story I’m hearing that matches with the evidence in the data:

“My mom died yesterday at age 97. Not from Covid but from nursing home neglect. I wasn’t able to see her for 9 weeks until I picked her up from the ER. Last Monday after they let her sit at the nursing home for a day with a fractured wrist. I was a regular visitor until Covid lockdown hit. I feared this would happen and it did happen. No telling how many people are being abused and neglected because of excessive fear.”

Of course, the quantity and severity of comorbidities correlate with age (older people are likely to have more underlying medical conditions). However, if you make it to 85 years old without dying you have essentially shown that you’re less susceptible to illness or disease; unlike people who die in the 65–85 range. Only the oldest people can legitimately die of old age; the cause of death for people under 85 will almost certainly need to be attributed to a specific cause of death. The demographic who die prematurely indicate that a lifestyle leading to heightened comorbidities will likely kill you before you reach 85.

When healthcare is artificially restricted, it is expected that the demographic of sick people (whatever their age) will be the ones to suffer from lack of medical assistance. The 85+ demographic may have avoided premature death, but they are often frail and do, however, rely heavily on relatives, carers and nursing home staff to assist them with their daily lives. Removing this support network would have serious consequences for this group of people.

I’m now going to present all the data relating to deaths by age group in England & Wales.

This graph shows the average number of weekly deaths among each age group for Week-50 to Week-11 (the period of time since Covid-19 emerged until lockdowns began). This compares all the years 2015–2020. I’ve only included this information to demonstrate the consistency or variation between the different years. I don’t see anything abnormal about this data and we can use it as a baseline for comparison. You can see that the 2020 figures are very close to the 2015–2019 average.

When the same data are visualised as a percentage distribution, it’s even more consistent, which shows that the age distribution of deaths is consistent from year to year, irrespective of the total number. Again, the 2020 data is smack bang in the middle of the normal range. Remember, this is 2020 data all the way from Covid-19 emerging until lockdowns begin.

Now let’s focus on Week-12 to Week-19:

We can see here that the average number of weekly deaths of people under-45 is barely affected. Not surprising as this demographic is less reliant on healthcare. Any extra deaths from restricted medical care may be offset by a reduction in deaths from accidents.

The <1 and 15–44 age groups are just outside the S.D. for the previous 5 years. The 25% drop in deaths in the 1–14 age group is quite extraordinary and certainly matches what we’d expect to see from a demographic whose deaths are typically caused by outdoor accidents. Put in a lockdown environment, children are less likely to be in similarly dangerous situations. This very simple analysis shows, convincingly, that the lockdown/pandemic response can have very specific effects on mortality for a specific age-group, yet be completely unrelated to Covid-19.

For anyone that quotes how lockdowns will save lives from accidents, just remember this is 40 fewer deaths compared to an excess of 48,321 deaths in the older age categories.

The story is not the same for people 45+ where we see a significant jump in deaths reaching as high as 65.4% in the oldest age category. When displayed visually on the chart you can see how significant and unusual this is compared to the 5 previous years.

This graph focuses on the 45+ age groups and shows the same data but represented as a percentage distribution and then compares it to the Covid-19 distribution. The first important point this highlights is how disproportionately represented the 75–84 age group is in reported Covid-19 deaths. This is not really unexpected as we would predict this demographic to be the most likely to be dying of existing medical conditions rather than the old-age related deaths in the 85+ age group.

I don’t present the stats in this article (it’s all included in the same raw dataset from England & Wales which can be checked) but 30% more men have reportedly died from Covid-19 than women. At first glance, this sounds shocking, but when you realise that people aren’t dying from Covid-19, they are dying from other health issues, you find this fits perfectly with the historical data: exactly 30% more men die of health complications under the age of 85 than women. By contrast, 51% more women die of old age over 85 than men.ʳᵈ⁴

Also bear in mind that the median age for reported Covid-19 deaths is 84 years; the overall life expectancy in the UK is 81.4 years. Let that sink in. This means that this current malaise has also been effectively precipitating the deaths of those who are already considerably beyond the statistical expectations of life expectancy, further reinforced by the large deficit of deaths that existed up until lockdowns began. However, it is important to underline that, just because many of the victims have been old or were already sick, does not mean they all should have been dying at this particular time.

Another important point is that the percentage distribution of non-Covid-19 deaths within the 85+ age group during lockdown is significantly higher than anything seen at least in the past 5 years. This is one of the clearest indicators of the tragic effect lockdowns have had on the people who rely on social contact and regular care to stay alive.

Finally, this graph gives you a simple comparison of total excess deaths compared to the massively inflated Covid-19 reported deaths. Even with the most exaggerated reporting of Covid-19 deaths, we still see a huge excess in each of these age groups, with people over 85 in care homes the most affected.

In the event of a new deadly virus (or real pandemic), I would expect to see the virus killing people in a more uniform distribution across the age groups. What we’re actually seeing is the opposite; the higher the typical mortality rate by age group, the more it has been amplified. This further reinforces that deaths are occurring as a result of government-mandated lockdowns, killing vulnerable people who require access to a now restricted health care system; leaving healthy people almost totally unaffected. A serious threat will arise from a real virus that humans of all ages don’t have a natural resistance to and is capable of overwhelming a normal healthy person’s immune system.

Historically the most significant pandemics have had a severe impact on mortality over extended periods of time AND long-term effects on population demographics. That is to say, the effects on the make-up of a population would be felt for many years, with large groups of people across most age-groups dying well before their time (e.g. the impact of AIDS on entire families and villages).

What happens next?

The data indicates that Covid-19 is not responsible for many deaths. There is some evidence to suggest that close to 4,000 people have been killed by Covid-19 in England & Wales over the past 8 weeks. It is, therefore, possible that legitimate Covid-19 deaths may continue to occur in small numbers over the coming months.

This graph shows the rolling 2-year death excess compared to the 2020 weekly excess over the past 5-year average. Despite Covid-19 spreading freely for 15 weeks we see that a significant deficit of medium-term deaths has built up, right until the point where restrictive healthcare policies are widely introduced.

At this point, the weekly excess deaths begin to accelerate as the drastic measures take effect. It takes just four weeks for the medium-term deficit to become an excess. With the correction back to normal medium-term rates complete, we see a peak and then sharp reduction in weekly excess deaths.

This fluctuation around the normal medium-term rate is almost exclusively down to deaths from illness in older people. However, restricted healthcare policies & lockdowns were unprecedented events that may cause longer-term increased death rates in younger people too. This may be from stopping planned operations, appointments and screenings, through to long-term suicides from economic or social depression and reduced quality of life.

It is thought that social distancing, lockdowns and use of sanitizer & masks will result in weakened immune systems throughout the general population, this may be a new factor in death rates after lockdowns end.

If healthcare systems and elderly care can be restored quickly, we may see a further reduction of excess deaths in the short term, however, the contribution from the other factors may have a longer-term and more significant effect.

Conclusions

There are 6 main points that contradict the official narrative:

The mortality data from Europe and the USA show a total increase in excess death of 0.36% which in my opinion does not warrant the mass panic that has been achieved.
The statistics show that the entirety of this 0.36% increase in excess deaths comes from the period around lockdowns when healthcare was restricted. There’s a big question mark whether any of this excess is from Covid-19 or in fact due to a lack of medical care for non-Covid-19 related patients around this time of panic and other unintended consequences.
There is a glaring mismatch in reported Covid-19 deaths and the actual number of excess deaths. As per Table 1 and Table 3, across the three regions there are 40,984 excess deaths and 232,570 Covid-19 deaths so, at the very least, 191,586 (82.4%) deaths are unaccounted for in the established mortality statistics confirming that normally expected deaths have been attributed to Covid-19.
The Covid-19 death reports are massively exaggerated and the above point is clear evidence of this.
In just the 8-weeks during the lockdown in England & Wales, there were 11,519 excess deaths that had nothing to do with Covid-19. This number is likely to be far higher when accounting for all the deaths that have been falsely reported as Covid-19.
The deaths that are being reported as Covid-19 form an exaggeration of the percentage distribution of deaths in the age groups which historically already have the highest proportion of deaths. For a deadly virus, you would expect to see an unusually uniform distribution across all age groups.

People die, and they die in vast numbers; the majority are either old or have weakened immune systems. 22.696 million people have died in Europe and the USA in the past four years. We are discussing 0.041 million excess deaths, some of which may be due to Covid-19, and some, perhaps most of which, had nothing to do with Covid-19, merely the government and mainstream media response to it.

Everything presented here lines up with the reports of hospitals being empty, and temporary Covid-19 centres not being used and subsequently closed, just weeks after opening.ʳ⁸

Before lockdowns were introduced, there were no excess deaths. In fact, there had been far fewer deaths than in 2017/2018. Was there really a pandemic or were people just dying at a typical or reduced rate? The reported Covid-19 deaths concern almost exclusively old and sick people; this conveniently happens to be the demographic who normally die and would be most susceptible to abrupt changes in general healthcare provision.

I’m not claiming that none of the excess death is due to Covid-19 but there is also no way that the lack of medical care during lockdowns for patients that would have otherwise been saved hasn’t significantly contributed to the death rate.

It has been shown by a simple analysis of overall statistics that the lockdown in the UK has led to reduced deaths in the 1–14 year age group by 25%, confirming that lockdown can and has indeed had significant unintended consequences on mortality rates. Further analysis will doubtless shine a light on the full extent of the murky causes of excessively increased deaths in the older age groups only vaguely related to Covid-19.

The data shows that reported Covid-19 deaths vastly outnumber excess deaths in the previous 2-year period.

The excess deaths we do see occurring in the data coincide very closely with the introduction of restrictions to healthcare, indicating that a vulnerable demographic of people relying on healthcare have suffered deaths not related to Covid-19. Therefore the vast majority of deaths classified as Covid-19 are from expected deaths that are not contributing to an excess. Artificially increasing the reported Covid-19 death toll creates a feedback loop of fear which in turn results in more excess deaths through restrictive healthcare policies.

If SARS-CoV-2 really exists, which I assume it does, then the data overwhelmingly shows that people are not dying of Covid-19; people are dying from fear and the government’s actions. I’m not claiming here that people aren’t infected with Covid-19 or testing positive for a real virus, I’m showing that by analysing the data, the evidence suggests people are not dying FROM Covid-19, they are dying WITH Covid-19 and essentially correcting the medium-term death deficit by a sudden peak in deaths triggered by artificial and historically unprecedented government actions. This is not conclusive proof but the analysis of the real raw data doesn’t lie. I’m struggling to believe a mainstream narrative that has no basis in observable evidence.

From all the published data there is no evidence of a significant threat from a virus; the only threat I can see is from fear, having an existing medical condition whilst being caught short with an unusually restricted healthcare system or being neglected in an elderly care home.

Even if we ignore the reasons for all the excess deaths in the above analysis, at least 43% of reported Covid-19 deaths have happened in elderly care homes that house 0.62% of the population.ʳ⁹ Please explain why the focus isn’t on isolating and protecting them directly. If this approach had been taken, the lack of restrictions on healthcare may have saved most of the other lives while also providing better care and protection for the elderly in care homes. The action taken instead set up the perfect conditions to decimate the sick and oldest people in our society.

It doesn’t appear that those people in elderly care homes were treated or hospitalized properly. What was all the space for in the unused NHS Nightingale hospitals?

Final thought

Try to take the time to look at the real figures for yourself. You can make up your own mind about what I’ve presented here but in my opinion, it raises some serious questions about the truth behind Covid-19 and what the public have been told. If this doesn’t concern you then please continue to #StayHome #SaveLives? but just remember that if health services and elderly care hadn’t been restricted, grandma may have survived.

Was grandma’s life really ‘saved’ by her family not visiting, or did she die anyway, partly because she didn’t receive any visits and enough medical care? The Dutch PM didn’t visit his 96-year-old mother for eight weeks until the night she died, but it was not from Covid-19. This really highlights just how incredibly fine a line we are dealing with regarding the disproportionate response to Covid-19. How many such monumentally tragic cases have there been and do we no longer see any distinction between the tragedy of deaths caused by nature and that of those caused by human interventions?

Our analysis strongly suggests the unprecedented pandemic response (including lockdowns and healthcare restrictions) is responsible for all or most of the excess deaths and Covid-19 has barely killed anyone in comparison. The bodies are piling up and if you support lockdowns then you’re part of the problem and the blood is on your hands.

Additional note: Why have elderly care homes been hit so hard?

Since new government policies have been introduced following the response to Covid-19, elderly care homes have become such high-risk places (for surviving in general, not just for Covid-19) for the following reasons:

They generally house the eldest members of society, often above the average age of life expectancy, who are typically the frailest and require the most care and assistance. Slight disruption can have dire consequences.
Reduction in care staff due to lack of availability but also due to social distancing results in a reduction in care.
Family members prevented from visiting and assisting with elderly relatives not only contribute to the problem but lead to greater neglect from care home staff due to lack of accountability.
If patients manage to get to an ICU the treatment for Covid-19 of using ventilators is thought to be causing more harm than good, especially among elderly patients, with the treatment potentially killing the patient rather than the illness.
Do not resuscitate (DNR) instructions, typically introduced at care homes further limit the chance of a person’s survival.
Some guidelines bar care-home residents from being transferred to hospital for any illness (Covid-19 or else).

Imagine the situation where you have a deadly virus outbreak and people begin to isolate on a large scale to protect themselves and potentially others. Most people in society can fend for themselves however without assistance, care home residents would be the first group to perish. What we’ve seen in the past few months is a mini version of this.

Copyright Disclaimer: This article is original content authored by Derrik Tikmann. The first draft was written on 16/05/2020 and published on 28/05/2020. The content has been immutably timestamped in the bitcoin blockchain and can be proved as first existing by this point. Please don’t copy this article and post it elsewhere. I welcome you to link to it wherever you like. Please leave your comments below, I’m always happy to improve my articles. You can contact me by email: derriktikmann [at] gmail [dot] com

You can now read the second part in this series here: https://medium.com/@tikmann/can-lockdowns-work-and-are-we-really-savinglivesbystayinghome-42ef15cf1a6b

Update as of 10/06/2020: I have since been shown the following articles that have been independently written and further validate the contents of this article. They report on a similar topic and are worth reading as supplementary material to this article:

Questions for lockdown apologists https://medium.com/@JohnPospichal/questions-for-lockdown-apologists-32a9bbf2e247

All-cause mortality during COVID-19: No plague and a likely signature of mass homicide by government response
http://archive.is/E3P67#selection-10429.0-10457.9

Note: All the data used in this article comes directly from [rd]:

The data presented here is just the raw data from these public statistics websites. Anyone can fact check these by going to the sites and downloading the data. I am merely presenting the real published data and analysing it. I don’t have any inside information, it can all be found in the public domain. You can look at these graphs and figures and make your own decisions.

References

You can read an in-depth article about care homes here: https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/26/were-conditions-for-high-death-rates-at-care-homes-created-on-purpose/

[r1] Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

[r2] Swedish temporarily stops elective surgeries, announces new visitor policies https://myedmondsnews.com/2020/03/swedish-temporarily-stops-elective-surgeries-announces-new-visitor-policies/

Hospitals Push Off Surgeries to Make Room for Coronavirus Patients https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-push-off-surgeries-to-make-room-for-coronavirus-patients-11584298575

[r3] What Does COVID-19 Do to Your Lungs https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-does-covid-do-to-your-lungs

[r4] Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[r5] 99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

[r6] Gunshot Victims Count As Coronavirus Deaths in Washington State https://www.targetliberty.com/2020/05/gunshot-victims-count-as-coronavirus.html

Rantz: Gun shot victims counted as Washington coronavirus deaths https://mynorthwest.com/1889564/rantz-gun-shot-victims-washington-coronavirus-deaths/

New COVID-19 Death Dispute: Colorado Coroner Says State Mischaracterized Death https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/05/14/coronavirus-montezuma-county-coroner-alcohol-poisoning-covid-death/

Suicide counted as Covid-19 https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/medical-experts-say-michigans-coronavirus-death-count-isnt-accurate-but-is-it-too-high-or-too-low.html

Coroner: Man hospitalized after crash dies of COVID-19 https://www.wfmz.com/health/coronavirus/man-hospitalized-after-crash-dies-of-covid-19-coroner-says/article_768425fc-77fc-11ea-9c71-bf0a00d2beb8.html

[r7] Causes of Death https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death#breakdown-of-deaths-by-age

[r8] London’s 4,000-bed Nightingale hospital to be SHUT after treating just 51 Covid-19 patients https://www.rt.com/uk/487725-london-nightingale-hospital-suspended-covid19/

[r9] The Most Important Coronavirus Statistic: 43% Of U.S. Deaths Are From 0.6% Of The Population https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#240806ff74cd