FOR DEMS, IT’S PARTY VS PEOPLE IN NH
Upstart challenger Bernie Sanders defeated establishment favorite Hillary Clinton by a margin of 60.4% to 38.0% in New Hampshire’s primary vote. Sanders earned 15 elected delegates to Clinton’s 9. Yet they both received a total of 15 delegates from the state. Delegates control who actually receives the nomination, by standing in for voters in July’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
There are 4,763 delegates who will actually choose the Democratic nominee. 713 of them are “superdelegates,” mostly Democratic party officials. These superdelegates can vote however they like, and are not responsible to any popular vote.
That means about 85% of the nomination is determined by the primaries. The other 15% is determined by Democratic party insiders. Based on prior voting turnouts, Dan Abrams of the Huffington Post calculated that a single superdelegate’s vote is roughly equivalent to 10,000 citizens’ votes.
A candidate needs 2,383 delegates to capture the DNC nomination. According to a New York Times count after the New Hampshire primary, Hillary had the the public support of 362 superdelegates, while Sen. Sanders garnered support from only 8 Superdelegates. Superdelegates may change their allegiance at any time up until the DNC in July.
Who are Superdelegates?
Superdelegates consist of Democratic party officials: 240 Senators and Representatives, 20 Governors, 20 party leaders without formal titles, and 432 individuals chosen by the Democratic party. Those chosen are usually mayors, chairs and vice-chairs of state party affiliates.
Why Superdelegates?
Superdelegates exist to give the Democratic party more control over its nominee. Party officials added superdelegates starting in 1984, primarily to shift the party toward centrist candidates, considered more electable by conventional measures.
Why do Superdelegates back Clinton?
Superdelegates represent the Democratic party’s establishment, or pre-existing power structure. Hillary Clinton represents the interests of the establishment, and has been courting party officials since her campaign began.
The Nightmare Scenario
An unthinkable result for all Democrats is that Sanders could win more elected delegates than Clinton, but Clinton’s superdelegates would propel her to victory. This would be viewed as a subversion of democracy, and it would alienate Sanders supporters while delighting Republicans.
Never Before
Never in their 3-decade history have superdelegates superceded primary voters and cast their votes for a less-popular candidate. Superdelegates can change their minds at any time before their convention vote. In the 2008 primary, Hillary Clinton had also secured a serious lead in superdelegates over the little-known challenger, Barack Obama. After Obama started winning primaries and caucuses, undecided superdelegates flocked to him, and some Clinton supers even abandoned ship. Eventually, the superdelegates lined up behind the popular winner, Obama, just as they have in each previous election.
The Upshot
The takeaway is that Clinton is overwhelmingly favored by superdelegates, i.e. the Democratic establishment. Superdelegates, even staunch Clintonites, should be unwilling to overturn a Sanders popular victory in primaries and caucuses.
Superdelegates are less than democratic. Take the superdelegate count with a grain of salt.
Popular Movements
In response to heavy-handed influence wielded by the Democratic party establishment, some Democratic voters have launched a petition drive to de-fang the superdelegates. They call for superdelegates to pledge allegiance to the winner of the popular vote, relegating supers to a confirmatory role. The petition, hosted on MoveOn.org, has over 85,000 signatories by the afternoon of 11 Feb 2016.
Historical Context
Throughout its history, the Democratic Party saw backroom deals and undemocratic political horse-trading dominate the candidate selection process. In 1968, a hotly contested Democratic National Convention suffered from the dual curse of popular riots protesting selections and television cameras to broadcast the conflict. After losing that election to Richard Nixon, party leaders ushered in the modern system of state-based primary votes and caucuses to give Democratic voters direct control over nominees. But in 1980, Democratic party officials felt boxed out of the nomination process. Jim Hunt was appointed to design a new system to prevent such left-leaning candidates as George McGovern and Jimmy Carter from snagging the nomination and losing the General Election to Republicans. By 1984, superdelegates had seized a role in choosing the Democrats’ nominee.
-Tim Dugan