Iran: A Short Question

This morning, as expected, we awoke to this new deal between Iran, the US, many other nations of the world and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Decades-old sanctions will be lifted on Iran (and its people) once Iran sees fit to perform certain actions, such as dismantling much of their enrichment capability and shipping out 98% of their nuclear material stockpile, amongst many other requirements.

Yet many Americans — most of whom weren’t paying attention to this agreement-in-process over the last year and a half, apparently — are fearful that lifting the sanctions on Iran will lead to their building a nuclear weapon of any size to use against Israel or ourselves. This not only demonstrates that an understanding of the agreement or the current situation hasn’t been reached, and also, that there’s a boogeyman in the room.

Dealing with boogeymen is the easiest of tasks, and since it starts us in the direction of the question I wish to ask, it’s a good place to begin. Without understanding the details of the agreement, the whole “Iran will do this-or-that under our noses” notion of why this nuclear deal is a bad idea creates a boogeyman out of Iran. Let me be plain: Iran does not have a magic wand, some secret technology or a league of super-spies to carry out its plans for world domination (or the wiping out of Israel) we and the rest of the world won’t be able to detect and defeat. The Iranians are not smarter than we are, nor are they smarter than the rest of the nations on the planet. Nor are we stupid (as Donald Trump is fond of waving about like a banner of superiority), nor is Iran stupid, nor is the rest of the world stupid. The United States and Israel are not the only nations in the world who don’t want to see Iran gain nuclear arms capability.

This is the key to understanding: the issues with Iran have has been with its government and not with its people.

This deal is to benefit the people of Iran, ultimately to create a society that works with, trades with and creates customers and industry alongside the US and the rest of the world in the Middle East. To benefit those people, we must change the behavior of their government. To change the behavior of Iran’s government we must set a series of conditions and rules that prevent them from taking any advantage their people might gain (for example, nuclear energy) and turning it into something that only fuels war and their government’s current ideology. In shorter terms, if Iran wants thing one, they must comply with things two, three, four and five first or they don’t get any of it.

Which brings me to my question.

Under this new agreement, Iran must, alongside many other requirements, reduce its stockpile of fissile material by 98%, allow inspectors from the US and other nations to inspect on a whim, and reduce its capability to create and enrich fissile material by a substantial degree.

If Iran would be able to build a nuclear weapon of any size under the watchful eye of the International Nuclear Regulatory Agency…

If Iran would be able to build a nuclear weapon of any size under the noses of the United States and the plethora of other nations charged with observing and inspecting Iran’s capabilities on a whim…

If Iran would be able to build a nuclear weapon of any size with 98% of its current material stockpile removed from the country…

If Iran would be able to build a nuclear weapon of any size with the vast majority of its centrifuges, and the infrastructure that supports them, eliminated…

If Iran would be able to build a nuclear weapon of any size once the capability for enrichment of fissile material has been reduced to just over 3%, far lower than they are capable of now and certainly not enough to create a fission-powered bomb…

If Iran would be able to build a nuclear weapon of any size despite all our best efforts, with fewer resources, reduced infrastructure and reduced technology, all under the watchful eyes of the rest of the world, according to a deal that has been hammered out for over a year and a half…

WHY HASN’T IRAN DONE IT ALREADY?