Thank you for your thoughtful comments, Juan. I do have to respectfully disagree. Apple’s product success rate is far, far higher than Google’s because Apple designs while Google experiments and tries to perfect through iteration. Aside from search itself, what are Google’s successful products that have been created through the engineer-and-iterate approach? And speaking of Google search, that was a great design achievement, as I point out in Google’s greatest design triumph. The mistake that Larry and Sergey made is that they thought it was mainly an engineering triumph when it was mainly a design triumph. They went on to…make tons of money selling search ads. Not much else has been financially successful.
I am optimistic that by great design, product success can be much more predictable than without it. I believe Apple, Facebook, Pixar/Disney, IKEA, and many others have demonstrated that to be true. That gives hope to startups and others who would like to improve their probability of product success.