Comparation of the bull/bear cycles situation of this cycle with the previous cycle of token. a) In the last bull market, it took nearly 10 months for BTC to reach 71% of its previous peak and this time it took only half that time. b) The last round of BTC market value double dip took about 7 months, and this round only took about 2 months, less than a third of the last round. c) In the last bull market, it took six months for BTC to break through from 71% of its first high. …


What Is the Time for Altcoin to Bloom?

According to the situation of token in the first two rounds of bull/bear market cycle: a) At the beginning of a bull market, the BTC leading rate will rise first and it will experience a process of going up, down and up again in the early and middle bull market. b) When the market value of token breaks through, the market value of Altcoin accelerates to rise and the leading rate of BTC drops rapidly. c) In the final stages of the bull market, the BTC leading rate will rise back up…


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Main Advantage

Ultra tries to build a game distribution platform based on blockchain to realize more reasonable profit distribution through the token economy. The game industry has huge market space, and Ultra may be an effective solution to the trigger point of the game distribution industry.

This is a strong team whose members are mostly from Google and other well-known Internet companies. The project proponent has profound accumulation in key technologies such as game release technology, coverage technology and advertising technology, etc. The combination with blockchain mainly relies on EOS, which is not that difficult.

Principal Risk

Ultra’s community is…


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TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL

Analyst: Clint Song

Analyst: Zhenyu Wu

Introduction:

The Binance Coin (BNB) is the cryptocurrency of the Binance platform, a leading digital currency exchange. With the arrival of the market turning point, the tokens of exchanges may soon be hit by Davis double-click effect. The driving factor of BNB’s current round of price increase is mainly from valuation recovery, and the subsequent potential price rises depend mainly on profit growth and users’ demand for Binance’s businesses.

Abstract:

Since its inception, BTC has experienced three rounds of price cycles and is currently trading at the bottom of…


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TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL

Analyst: Song Shuangjie

Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin

Guide:

The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.

Summary:

BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power…


BNB:Market Inflection Point and Davis Double-Click Effect —

Comments on Blockchain Evens

Introduction:

The Binance Coin (BNB) is the cryptocurrency of the Binance platform, a leading digital currency exchange. With the arrival of the market turning point, the tokens of exchanges may soon be hit by Davis double-click effect. The driving factor of BNB’s current round of price increase is mainly from valuation recovery, and the subsequent potential price rises depend mainly on profit growth and users’ demand for Binance’s businesses.

Abstract:

Since its inception, BTC has experienced three rounds of price cycles and is currently trading at the bottom…


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通证通研究院 × FENBUSHI DIGITAL 联合出品

文:宋双杰,CFA;田志远

特别顾问:沈波;Rin

导读

通过对比BTC、黄金和法币,我们发现BTC极具成为优良价值储备的潜力,并且进一步利用价值储备估值法分析了BTC的价值区间。

摘要

根据价值储备的定义,理想的价值储备应具备的主要特性包括普遍接受性、耐用性、稳定性(稀缺性)和流动性。

黄金:优秀的价值储备手段。不同的价值储备各有优劣,黄金是公认的较为理想的价值储备,不管在世界各国的国际储备还是民间储备资产中均占据了重要地位。

BTC极具发展为一种优良价值储备的潜力。根据价值储备应具备的主要特性,我们对比了BTC、黄金和法币。总体而言,BTC在稀缺性、便携性、可分割性、可验证性等方面都具有显著的优势,同时具有良好的耐用性,尽管目前BTC在普遍接受性和稳定性上相对处于劣势,但是随着BTC市场的逐步成熟,大众对于BTC的接受程度正在迅速增长,同时其价格波动性也在逐渐降低。

BTC价值储备估值方法:随着BTC价格的变化,BTC市值占价值储备黄金或离岸资产的市场份额相应变化。因此通过对BTC获取价值储备黄金或离岸资产的市场份额的预期,能够侧面反映对BTC的价格波动区间的预期。

一个乐观的投资者,可能认为BTC的市值到2029年及之前,能占到估算的价值储备黄金市值/离岸资产市值/价值储备黄金和离岸资产市值之和的50%,那么在他看来,BTC的价格在2029年及之前的上限分别约为10万美元/26万美元/36万美元左右。

风险提示:黄金价值储备及离岸资产规模增长不及预期,BTC稳定性发展不及预期,量子计算机技术突飞猛进

目录

1 什么是价值储备

2 BTC能否作为价值储备?

3 基于价值储备估值方法的BTC价格区间估算

正文

1什么是价值储备

价值储备(Store of Value)是货币的主要职能之一,根据维基百科的定义,价值储备指资产能够被保存并在未来被用于交换的功能,能够在未来保持购买力的任何事物都可以成为价值储备,常见的价值储备包括货币、贵金属等。

根据价值储备的定义,理想的价值储备应具备的主要特性包括普遍接受性、耐用性、稳定性(稀缺性)和流动性:


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通证通研究院 × FENBUSHI DIGITAL 联合出品

文:宋双杰,CFA;田志远

特别顾问:沈波;Rin

导读

回顾股票估值发展历史,估值方法演变之路充满坎坷,当互联网企业出现时,传统的估值方法失效,面对新生事物,投资者难免茫然,通证今天遇到了同样的问题。

摘要

通证投资者迫切需要一种切实可行的估值方法辅助投资判断。尽管BTC诞生至今不过十年,但对通证估值方法的追求比以往更为迫切,通证投资者迫切需要一种切实可行的估值方法辅助投资判断,发现通证的增长潜力和内在价值。

通证估值的特点:新事物,已有方法难以直接套用。面对通证这一新生事物,已有的估值方法或者难以直接套用,或者适用性过于有限。复杂性,通证兼具多种资产属性。通证估值的主要难点之一是资产属性的判断,通证兼具多重属性,很多估值方法只 …


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通证通研究院 × FENBUSHI DIGITAL 联合出品

文:宋双杰,CFA;王新刚

特别顾问:沈波

导读

ETF是近年来备受瞩目的金融创新,历经二十余年的发展,目前总量已达四千余只、资金管理规模近4.8万亿美元。对BTC ETF的申请自2016年即开始,但结果为何总是差强人意?

摘要

ETF是一种跟踪“标的指数”变化、且在证券交易所上市交易的基金。其本质是一种可自由申购、赎回、实时交易的开放式基金,兼具封闭式和开放式基金的运作特点,具有分散投资风险、交易和管理费用低廉、高透明性的特点。

ETF是对冲金融市场投资风险的产物。1993年美国证券交易所推出了标准普尔存托凭证(SPDR S&P500),这是业内第一只真正意义上的ETF。进入21世纪后,ETF进入快速发展期,创新产品层出不穷,E …

Token Roll

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