Predictions For Tech in 2020
A Brave New World?
Crossposted from Promethea, “Where the World Writes”
2025 is to Christmas Eve as 2033–35 is to Christmas (AKA — The Singularity).
We can expect numerous advances, as new technologies are created and the work we do now comes to fruition.
- There is — at least — a 15% chance that AI will have some level of consciousness. Many people are unaware that apes are able to carry out basic conversations with humans, as in the case of Koko the gorilla. It will take a while (at least 2029) for AI to reach human level, but I believe that we will see AI with a more muted level of consciousness by 2025. The issues of AI rights will become highly contentious.
- Autonomous personal assistants will be entering the mainstream. I am doing some work in this area, on the side, and believe that they will quickly become a staple of the average household. They will begin carrying out basic tasks like caring for the elderly, cooking, babysitting, and cleaning — before moving on to more complex manual labor and military service.
- Major advancements with CRISPR gene editing. Expect Google to acquire many startups in this field as they look to compete. Last week, we saw the first human-pig hybrid. Who can tell what this controversial technology will accomplish by 2025?
- Virtual reality will have replaced the current video game industry. Experimental movies will make use of virtual reality, however this will likely be abandoned or turn into its own separate field. Graphics should be nearly indistinguishable from real life. I do not expect full immersion until the early 2030s.
- Microbial life will be found on Europa. Evidence of long dead microbial life will be found on Mars during the first manned mission (by 2025). The Mars colony grows steadily.
- Russia is losing its status as a major world power, having failed to adapt to a post-fossil fuels society.
- Most jobs have been replaced by automation and AI. The populace is increasingly uneasy, and plans for a universal basic income are underway. Nevertheless, protests are held on a near weekly basis, often devolving to riots.
- Donald Trump is reelected, promising to create jobs, however most realize that any growth will be artificial — only sweeping the problem of UBI under the carpet.
- The two party system as we know it has died, replaced by socialism and libertarianism (the latter separated only by varying support for capitalism).
- ISIS condemns the new technological advancements and directs all its attention to America.
- Queen Elizabeth announces that she has discovered the secret to immortality.
What do you think?
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