Is the fix in? What Tom Watson would have to do to get Labour’s NEC to exclude Jeremy Corbyn from a leadership ballot

A meeting of the Labour Party’s National executive committee, [which begun at 2pm today], will decide whether Jeremy Corbyn will appear on a ballot when members vote in a leadership election sparked by Angela Eagle.

There is a debate over the correct legal interpretation of the party rules.

But more importantly, there is a power struggle, pitting supporters of Jeremy Corbyn — or at least those who believe he should not be excluded from the ballot — against his opponents from the “moderate” majority of the party establishment, most of whom would rather that he was.

Amidst indications that there may be moves to organise a meeting in such a way as to make it hard for some Corbyn-supporting delegates to attend, and to allow delegates to vote in a secret ballot, it’s worth taking a look at what we can assume might be the balance of power on the NEC.

Here’s a spreadsheet which summarises what I’d suggest is the “central scenario”, if all NEC members are able to attend.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1niEjEpfyU8ksQ0ETYMZY6cocJjS0icd3h-e39WUSQ8Q/edit?usp=sharing

It shows Corbyn leading 20 votes to 13. But Corbyn’s opponents are led by the renowned “fixer” and deputy party leader Tom Watson.

What would he have to do to beat Corbyn?

· First, make sure Jonathan Ashworth MP keeps his seat, perhaps by moving fast enough to pre-empt a shadow cabinet meeting, which would (presumably) be necessary to replace him with a Corbyn loyalist. [Minutes after I posted, it was reported by Carl Dinnen on twitter that Corbyn had tried and failed to replace Ashworth at a Shadow Cabinet meeting.]

· Second, persuade Treasurer Diana Holland to vote against Corbyn. I have no idea how easy or difficult that would be. That would bring the margin to 19 to 14.

· Third, let’s say that by calling a short notice meeting, two Corbyn-sympathetic union delegates can’t make it, or that Watson can have two other pro-Corbyn votes excluded. That could include Corbyn himself on grounds of conflict of interest [he entered the meeting, but has left the room on the Chair’s request, only to be allowed to vote at the last moment] or perhaps Darren Williams who has reportedly had a complaint made against him for violation of party rules (see link in spreadsheet). [Mary Turner of the GMB apparently absent due to illness] That would take it to 17 to 14.

· Then, Watson would need to flip two delegates from unions which are publicly backing Corbyn — probably Unison or GMB. He might be aided in doing so by a secret ballot [which has apparently been agreed, by 17 votes to 15] which could be justified on the grounds that some opponents of Corbyn have received threats of violence, which some might be minded to take more seriously in the wake of the murder of Jo Cox. 14–15.

· If he can get Williams replaced by Luke Akehurst (see spreadsheet), which seems unlikely given the tight timeframe, he would get an extra vote there.

· Meanwhile, Watson needs to lose no votes from amongst those who I’m assuming are going to back him.

Sounds like a tall order to me — but then, what do I know?

Corrections made since initial publication: name of Treasurer, slated time of NEC meeting, new information on Ashworth, Mary Turner, secret ballot.