“Dewey Defeats Truman!”

Nate Silver still has Trump at a 16% chance to win. Remember, deviation from polling average from state to state is not an independent random variable. It is subject to common acts of variance, such as turnout patterns not correctly projected by pollsters, last-minute movements, etc.

It’s true that the odds are in Clinton’s favor, but we have three more weeks’ worth of October surprises to go, and it’s not over until we find out whether or not Clinton’s support contained a deadly cocktail of overconfidence and underenthusiasm.