There Will Be No Bitcoin Split
John Blocke

A lot of assumptions here but the biggest is of course that the 75% activation rate is hit and maintained for 6 consecutive weeks.

Note also, that 2mb blocks is a very short term fix for not a very big problem and the proposals such as segwit and lightning offer better long term fixes for transaction volume.

While the future of the direction of bitcoin contains a lot of uncertainty there’s a very big movement, including the developers who want to preserve the constants in the system (1 MB blocks, 21 million coins, 2 week difficulty reset, etc…) for the reasons that changing these means changing the soundness of the money itself. Their ideology will be very very hard to change.

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