Interesting perspective and well written analysis on the ICO; thanks for sharing.
Why run all projections with the assumption that all of the available filecoins are sold? Tezos, a protocol with comparable upside and no cap, only raised 232m. It was open to all interested blockchain investors, while filecoin is limited to accredited investors, a small percentage of blockchain enthusiasts.
It seems likely that the public sale will be close to the advisor pre sale, making the total raise about 100m. Your projections range from 391m to 1.3b, which seems rather skewed.
Curious to hear your thoughts!