The Convergent

Is VR the new platform?

About this time in 2012 Palmer Luckey launched oculus. This is seen as the event that brought VR back on to the world stage. I say back on the stage, because it’s not VR’s first rodeo.

VR made it’s debut some time in the 80's… around the same time as knight rider. after a short-lived obsession, both VR and Knight Rider dropped out of fashion. Now, thanks to Tesla and Google the Knight Rider vision is being realised… and crucially, thanks to Oculus, Sony and HTC the VR vision is being realised.

But the question is… will VR be successful this time round?

False dawns

The reason why everyone’s so excited this time is largely down to convergence. Previous attempts at VR failed largely due to technology being pushed beyond it’s limitations. It’s not the only sector to see this happen, the story was very similar with tablets and smartphones – the failure of the Apple Newton for example created a ‘false dawn’ similar to that experienced in VR.

Again, google with their glass experiment marked another ‘false dawn’ dawn for AR / VR. The technology was not mature. A small, clunky and poorly designed heads-up display did not provide enough of an immersive experience, add to this a poor user interface and the result was people didn’t see enough value in it over the smartphone and it failed.

Why wont it flop this time?

It might. But i’d say it’s unlikely. Let’s look at the last time wearable technology made the jump to mainstream. The sony walkman proved that if you give people enough value (and market it well) people won’t object to carrying around a plastic box, cassettes and a silly looking headset – in fact, they’ll buy it in droves.

All grown up

The first 80's dawn for VR was like sending a kid into a fight. Sure he knows how to punch, but lacks the proper power and skill to throw that punch.

Now that kid’s all grown up, and he packs a much more powerful punch. There are many technologies that are driving this resurgence in VR and AR:

Processing power

Since the 80’s we’ve seen a massive increase in raw computing power. The technology that is required to remove nausea, meet the desired definition and make VR immersive is now commercially available.

Gaming and rendering

Thanks to this advance in computing power, animation and game studios are producing renders, games and animations in a much shorter time frame. The high definition and level of realism really makes VR come into its own.

Sensors

Sensors have become much more accurate thanks to smartphones and wearable tech like Fitbit. Positional tracking is crucial to virtual presence.

Image capture

Companies such as Samsung are throwing money into VR image capture devices such as their 360 degree camera: http://www.theverge.com/2016/2/21/11081450/samsung-gear-360-camera-video-specs-mwc-2016

Smartphones and batteries

Smartphones will take VR mainstream and smartphone penetration is over 35%. In essence, over 2 billion of the population already have 80% of a VR headset and with Samsung Gear VR shipping with new phones, we’re set for rapid adoption on a scale the world hasn’t seen before: http://uk.businessinsider.com/free-samsung-gear-vr-galaxy-s7-s7-edge-pre-order-2016-2?r=US&IR=T

So in conclusion, i feel we’re sitting at a point of technology convergence that marks the beginning of a paradigm shift away from our reliance upon multiple screens for information to one discrete wearable device that is able to merge the real with the virtual, essentially making the whole world one giant interacitve display.