GE2017 – 37 days to go– Labour gains but Tories still hold lead

Since the election was called on April 18th most people have assumed that The Conservatives will end up winning in a landslide. In fact, 42% of people believe the election is a foregone conclusion — according to a YouGov survey. However, recent polling has made many doubt whether or not this is the case. While Theresa May’s Conservative party have remained stable on 46%, Labour are up to nearly 30%. Nevertheless, overturning a 16% lead will be no easy task for Jeremy Corbyn, who is viewed unfavourably by 72% of the population. What we’ll have to see is, if Corbyn can continue to put a dent in Theresa May’s lead or whether Labour have reached their peak for this election.

But, right now The Conservatives are on course for a triple digit majority and if this plays out on election day it’s hard to see Jeremy Corbyn staying on as leader. So naturally, many have been looking at possible future Labour leaders. Yvette Cooper — who ran unsuccessfully for the leadership two years ago — is the favourite to take over the party, with odds of 4/1. Many others have suggested Clive Lewis, Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long Bailey and Lisa Nandy as possible leaders.

But after the failure of polls to predict Brexit and Donald Trump, we should be cautious to assume that Jeremy Corbyn will lose. Theresa May may have already lost votes due to her decision to refuse to appear in TV debates, and we have yet to see the effect of the ‘damning account’ of Brexit talks between her and Jean-Claude Juncker.

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