Is Boris Johnson Britain’s Donald Trump?

Both globally and domestically, the media have been quick to compare Britain’s new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to the incumbent US President, Donald Trump — focusing on the two’s predisposition to gaffes and, fuelling of right-wing populism and so-called culture wars. However, many had wondered if Johnson might pursue a moderate approach as PM, reminiscent of his time as London Mayor — during which time he supported an increased minimum wage and, endorsed Barack Obama’s presidential bid.

Replicating the strategy he employed as Mayor would’ve been a head spinning leftward turn for the now-Prime Minister, but Johnson is known for his ruthless commitment to political self-preservation above all else. There is little doubt that the PM would follow this approach if he saw it as being the most politically expedient. But an examination of the last few years political turmoil, would lead few to believe that following this path would garner him more votes compared to a more ‘Trumpian’, populist route. Indeed, it is the latter path that looks to be of interest to Johnson.

That’s not to say that there won’t be significant policy differences between the UK and US administrations. Many of Trump’s political beliefs — such as, opposition to an NHS style healthcare system as well as his opposition to legal abortion — are so unpopular in Britain that they are unlikely to every be pursued or supported by the current Prime Minister. Though, as an aside, one should be cautious in assuming what won’t change under the PM — as America’s President has shown, a bombastic, populist leader with an uncompromising base of supporters can quickly upend long-time political norms and customs.

However, unlike Trump, Johnson may lack the ability to really change Britain’s political system for good. While he could hypothetically find a way to push through a hard-Brexit and move the British political centre of gravity to the right for a generation, he could much more easily end up being a short-serving, inconsequential leader.

President Trump entered office with a much stronger grip on power than Johnson — he has more power than a PM to act unilaterally through executive orders and, his removal through impeachment is highly unlikely as it would require a 2/3 majority in the Republican controlled Senate. However, only a simple majority in the Commons would be needed to bring down Johnson’s Government and, the current, slim Conservative-led majority is held up by a strained deal with the DUP. Moreover, the majority is likely to decrease and, possibly even evaporate through by-election defeats and possible defections. And, while many Conservative MPs are surely uneasy about supporting a no-confidence motion due to their fears about a Corbyn premiership, whatever Brexit proposal the PM puts forward is likely to be met with such vehement opposition that a majority of parliamentarians — including, a small but crucial number of Tories — would bring down the Government before letting it pass, increasing the possibility of having an election by the end of this year.

But even if we do end up with an early election, the stylistic direction a Conservative campaign would take is clear. Johnson’s Cabinet appointments were his clearest overtures to right wing populism, with his Home Secretary, Priti Patel, having previously supported the death penalty. While, his first speech outside Downing Street where he hit out at Brexit “doomsters” was a clear attempt to appeal to Conservative Eurosceptics and Brexit Party supporters, it also fed into a larger narrative on the right that those who want to stop Brexit or have a second referendum on EU membership are engaging in “project fear” and are ‘traitors’. It is also the clearest sign yet that Johnson is following a Trump-like electoral strategy of appealing to your core base of supporters over middle-of-the-road swing voters.

Where Boris Johnson looks to emulate Trump is on his unconcerned attitude towards scandal, with both his Home Secretary and Education Minister having been involved in controversies that cost them their cabinet positions under Theresa May. Similarly, his Special Adviser, Dominic Cummings was found to be in contempt of Parliament just months ago, while Johnson himself has been involved in a myriad of controversies throughout his adult life, from making up quotes as a journalist, to using the racist term “piccaninnies” to describe black people. Maybe, it’s Johnson’s own political success in the face of scandal that makes him so ready to hire those who have caused so much controversy.

So, while Johnson has shown he is capable of following a more consensus led form of politics, moderation doesn’t seem to be on the cards for his tenure as PM. It’s early days, but his first actions in his new job suggest he’s following the lead, not only of the US President, but of his fellow UK party leaders who have all embraced populism on some level — from Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn who has shifted the party firmly to the left on economic issues, to the Lib Dem’s Jo Swinson; who wants the UK to remain in the EU, to the Brexit Party’s Nigel Farage; whose said a no-deal Brexit would be “no problem”. Not long ago, Johnson’s populism would have made him an outlier in British politics, now it means he part of the norm.