Come Bet With Me: A Great Start
A profitable week leads us into the Travelers Championship.
We had a great week at the U.S. Open cashing a 22/1 shot on Joel Dahmen finishing in the top 10! His great start through the 2nd round turned into a nail-biter Sunday as he needed a closing par to secure 10th place on the 18th hole.
To review, I will be sharing my bets for the upcoming tournament. These wagers will have lines that are currently available at the time of publication. You can bet them right along with me.
We started with a $1000 bankroll. The amount wagered will be based on the current size of the bankroll at the time. The higher the bankroll, the more we can bet. Last week’s story on how we got started is right below if you missed it.
I will also break down the reasoning behind our bets. Each category will have at least one description in depth. It’s a lot of fun to give an insight into the thinking and process I’ve developed over the last many years. Let’s start with a quick review of last week.
- Starting Bankroll: $1000
- Amount Wagered: $427
- Amount Won/Lost: +$92
- New Bankroll: $1092
We broke even essentially on cut and top 20 bets. We lost a small amount in the outright market. Despite being 1–4 on top 10 bets, the single winner with Dahmen paid $220. It was enough to secure a winning week.
I decided to alter bet sizing in $100 increments to keep numbers round and consistent. A 1% bet will still be $10 with the new $1092 bankroll. Anything above $1100 will increase our bet sizing in the future.
Let’s get started with the Travelers Championship!
Futures: Outright Winner
- Day 80/1 (DraftKings)
- McNealy 80/1 (DraftKings)
- L Griffin 200/1 (DraftKings)
Jason Day finally appears to be headed in the right direction. He struggled for some time after the unfortunate passing of his mother but has been playing well of late. He’s made five cuts in a row along with a quality record at TPC River Highlands. Day’s tee-to-green ball striking has improved over the last few months. His closer proximity to the hole has in turn allowed him to hole more putts. As a former major winner, he’s more than capable of getting back in the winner’s circle.
Lanto Griffin is a flier with tremendous upside. Entering the week 53rd in the FedEx Cup race, he’s positioned well going into the upcoming stretch run. Griffin is a perfect 3/3 here in cuts made. He boasts tremendous iron play and quality putting on poa annua, which features as the grass in Connecticut this week. Griffin is immensely undervalued this week, allowing us to have more action on him in other markets too.
Futures: Top 10
- Harman +430 (FanDuel)
- Steele +500 (DraftKings)
- Leishman +500 (MGM)
- Day +650 (DraftKings)
- Reavie +1400 (DraftKings)
- L Griffin +1600 (DraftKings)
We were on Harman last week in the U.S. Open to make the cut. He sure delivered, finishing in the top 10 after Friday. A 75–76 finish placed him well back but gave him value this week. A high-quality finish in last week’s major would assuredly have made his number unbettable this week. Instead, we get a nice price of +430 to top 10 in an event he’s shined in before. He owns four top 10s in previous appearances and has the game to hang with anyone in the world on a shorter course.
Like Jason Day, Brendan Steele enters the week playing well before getting some rest during the U.S. Open. Perfect in cuts made over the last seven tournaments, Steele looks to continue his good run on a course he’s had success on in the past. He has eight top 25s here in 11 appearances. He’s another connection with poa grass which is common on courses near his home in Northern California.
Futures: Top 20
- Cantlay -115 (PointsBet)
- Power +220 (PointsBet)
- McNealy +340 (PointsBet)
Bring on those Cali kids! McNealy also hails from Northern California where he grew up playing courses that featured poa grass. He has very quietly had a stellar season on tour making 16 cuts in only 19 events. His improvement has been noted with the driver and long irons. Pairing a better tee-to-green game with his prodigious putting has allowed McNealy to contend regularly.
Props: Make/Miss Cut
- Cantlay makes cut -450 (DraftKings)
- Spieth makes cut -250 (BetMGM)
- Leishman makes cut -200 (BetMGM)
- Steele makes cut -190 (DraftKings)
- Day makes cut -175 (PointsBet)
- Bradley misses cut +250 (DraftKings)
Sometimes it’s all about the number. If you look around, Spieth to make the cut is -300 or higher everywhere else. He’s simply too good and consistent on this course to pass this up. His caddie Michael Greller remarked that this course sets up perfectly for him the first time they were here in 2017. He dramatically holed out from the bunker on the 18th hole to win the tournament that very same year. He may not win this year, but all we need is for him to make the weekend in this one.
Television coverage last week was littered with anecdotes about Keegan Bradley’s connection to Boston and what winning in this area would mean for him. He even admitted the level of stress was high throughout the whole week. He gave it all he could but faded down the stretch Sunday. This is where we can take advantage. It’s tough to rebound right away after an emotionally draining week. He’s missed the last two cuts at the Travelers. I believe there is a distinct possibility he will not have his A or B game this week.
Tournament Matchups
- Steele over McCarthy -115 (DraftKings)
- Scheffler over McIlroy -110 (DraftKings)
- Spieth over Bradley -110 (DraftKings)
- Leishman over Riley -105 (PointsBet)
- Power over Finau -102 (Fanduel)
Another value spot shows up with world #1 Scottie Scheffler over Rory McIlroy. Everywhere else, Scheffler is -125 or higher, and rightfully so. He’s the best player all-around in 2022 and has shown no signs of slowing down after another great performance last week at Brookline. It’s hard to step in front of McIlroy with how well he’s been playing but he’s still without a top 10 at this course in three tries.
Seamus Power is another golfer that’s enjoyed success this year on tour after grinding it out for years. He’s currently 23rd in the FedEx Cup. A great all-around game has allowed Power to succeed across all types of venues this season. He faces Tony Finau who’s missed three cuts in a row in Connecticut. Getting nearly even money on Power in this spot is well worth it.
- Future win: Day 80/1, 0.5%, $5 pays $400
- Future win: McNealy 80/1, 0.5%, $5 pays $400
- Future win: Griffin 200/1, 0.5%, $5 pays $1000
- Future top 10: Harman +430, 2%, $20 pays $86
- Future top 10: Steele +500, 2%, $20 pays $100
- Future top 10: Leishman +500, 2%, $20 pays $100
- Future top 10: Day +650, 1.5%, $20 pays $130
- Future top 10: Reavie +1400, 1%, $10 pays $140
- Future top 10: Griffin +1600, 1%, $10 pays $160
- Future top 20: Cantlay -115, 4%, $46 pays $40
- Future top 20: Power +220, 3%, $30 pays $66
- Future top 20: McNealy +340, 2.5%, $25 pays $85
- Prop make cut: Cantlay -450, 6.3%, $63 pays $14
- Prop make cut: Spieth -250, 5%, $50 pays $20
- Prop make cut: Leishman -200, 4%, $40 pays $20
- Prop make cut: Steele -190, 3.8%, $38 pays $20
- Prop make cut: Day -175, 3.5%, $35 pays $20
- Prop miss cut: Bradley +250, 2%, $20 pays $50
- Matchup: Steele over McCarthy -115, 5.8%, $58 pays $50
- Matchup: Scheffler over McIlroy -110, 3.3%, $33 pays $30
- Matchup: Spieth over Bradley -110, 5.5%, $55 pays $50
- Matchup: Leishman over Riley -105, 3.2%, $32 pays $30
- Matchup: Power over Finau -102, 4.1%, $41 pays $40
- 23 wagers, $681 bet, $411 current bankroll
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Here’s to a great week at the Travelers Championship!
