Come Bet With Me: Sports Betting For Profit #1

Photo by Sly Dizzle at Unsplash

I’m excited to begin sharing my sports betting journey with all of you. My goal is to show some insights into my process and decision-making while I share the real wagers I will be making. Let’s start with some background on me first. I’ve been betting sports for nearly 15 years and have finally been able to turn a consistent profit in the last 4–5 years. It’s been a long journey already but in many ways I’ve just scratched the surface of success in this realm. The biggest progression has been the use of analytics and understanding not only what the data says but how it can be best applied to finding good spots to wager on. My strongest attribute has always been the ability to watch and learn from seeing the event on the screen. I’ve found that the markets don’t account for some of the small details you can pick up on while watching an event.

This series will focus solely on the wagers I’m making. I will use only available lines from major U.S. sportsbooks so anyone that wants to bet and follow along can do so in many jurisdictions. These numbers are obviously always subject to change. I will say that at the time I click the publish button, these lines will be available. As always, shop around to find the best numbers you can wherever you are located. I’m based in Las Vegas so I won’t be able to use these same sportsbooks provided here. With that said, there will be times that I will be able to find better odds with the outs I have available in Nevada. My personal bets may vary differently from what you see here.

We will start with a $1000 bankroll. All of the wagers made will be based on the current bankroll that is available to use. I bet using percentages of total bankroll and will do the same in our process here. So a 1% wager based on the starting $1000 bankroll would be a $10 bet. This amount will fluctuate depending on the current stake as time goes by. A few months from now if the bankroll is $2000, then the same 1% wager will be a $20 bet. I will not bet more than 10% of the bankroll on any specific play.

At this current point in time, my focus is on golf, tennis, NFL football, and NCAA football. These are all sports I am confident I can win at long term. I pay more attention to the prop markets in these sports since the numbers are softer and more beatable but by no means is anything off-limits. For the NFL, I wager on sides/totals, weekly lookahead sides/totals, derivatives, player props, game props, and in-play. Looking ahead, I may add MMA or soccer, which have been profitable in the past. At this point, there simply isn’t enough time in the day to handicap all of them at one time.

I’ll break down a few wagers along the way to give insight into my thinking and process. The goal here is to keep this as fun and entertaining as possible. It’s easy to get bogged down with the data and analytics. As most know, it’s difficult to show a consistent profit betting sports. I want to do my best to show you can win alongside enjoying a fun and rewarding experience. There will be updates a few times per week depending on what wagers are made. For golf, the bets will be up by Tuesday or Wednesday of each week. Let’s get at it!

Futures: Outright Winner

• Spieth 30/1 (Fanduel)
• Conners 80/1 (DraftKings)
• Munoz 150/1 (BetMGM)

Corey Conners has been trending up for a long while now. He’s enjoying his most fruitful overall season on tour sitting at 29th in the FedEx Cup race with 10 top 25s in only 18 starts this season. A ball-striker extraordinaire by trade that fits Brookline well overall. He’s accurate off the tee and incredibly good on approach with his irons. Putting tends to fail him the most but with the small unknown greens this week, I believe this puts him at an advantage. Just finding the putting surface will be a challenge on many holes. Furthermore, nobody has any history on these greens. It’s a fresh puzzle for the entire field.

Futures: Top 10

• Im +350 (DraftKings)
• Berger +430 (Fanduel)
• Conners +450 (DraftKings)
• Munoz +900 (DraftKings)
• Dahmen +2200 (DraftKings)

Post-COVID delay, Daniel Berger was arguably the hottest golfer in the world for nearly one year. Right out of the gate, he won at Colonial defeating the rising star Collin Morikawa in a playoff. He continued great play into 2021 until succumbing to a back injury which has only allowed him to play in 11 events this season. He still has 3 top 10s including a 5th place finish last week in Canada. The back injury seems to finally be behind him as he makes his fourth start in as many weeks at a course that should fit him well from tee to green. Like Conners, he’s incredibly accurate with woods and irons. The tendency is to struggle with putting in the weeks that his game doesn’t come together. He’s undervalued this week for some reason. I’m ready to take full advantage.

Futures: Top 20

• Fitzpatrick +130 (DraftKings)
• Lowry +140 (DraftKings)

Seeing Shane Lowry in a major brings back fond memories of him at Royal Portrush a few years ago. He demolished the field en route to a six-shot victory. I had him that week at 100/1 in the outright market and it set off a nice run through the Tour Championship. He’s another great fit this week since he thrives in difficult conditions on tough tracks. Since the Florida swing this season, Lowry is 10/10 in cuts made with 4 top 10s and 8 top 25s. There have been a few close calls along the way this season already. Hopefully, he can hang around the top of the leaderboard again this week. It’s important to note that winds are expected to blow pretty hard throughout the first three rounds of the tournament. This gives Lowry an advantage being one of the better wind players on tour. He controls his ball flight well and should have no issues navigating around Brookline.

Props: Make/Miss Cut

• Rahm makes cut -500 (BetMGM)
• Berger makes cut -200 (PointsBet)
• Harman makes cut -142 (Fanduel)
• Ancer makes cut -136 (Fanduel)

I know what you’re thinking. -500 on a prop? What’s the point of that? Well, my goal is simply to find value wherever possible. That means being willing to wager on spots that may look ugly to the masses. I’ve stressed the importance of accuracy this week off the tee and into the greens on a course that will not only be extremely difficult, but also affected by wind. I regard Jon Rahm as the best driver of the golf ball in the world. There is nobody you want on the tee more than him if you need to send a ball far down the fairway. His power combined with accuracy off the tee will gain numerous strokes against the field. A lot would need to go wrong for Rahm to miss the cut in this event. I expect the defending U.S. Open champion to show up ready to go.

• Future win: Spieth 30/1, 0.5%, $5 pays $150
• Future win: Conners 80/1, 0.5%, $5 pays $400
• Future win: Munoz 150/1, 0.5%, $5 pays $750
• Future Top 10: Im +350, 3%, $30 pays $105
• Future Top 10: Berger +430, 3%, $30 pays $129
• Future Top 10: Conners +450, 3%, $30 pays $135
• Future Top 10: Munoz +900, 2%, $20 pays $180
• Future Top 10: Dahmen +2200, 1%, $10 pays $220
• Future Top 20: Fitzpatrick +130, 4%, $40 pays $52
• Future Top 20: Lowry +140, 5%, $50 pays $70
• Prop Make Cut: Rahm -500, 7.5%, $75 pays $15
• Prop Make Cut: Berger -200, 5%, $50 pays $25
• Prop Make Cut: Harman -142, 4.3%, $43 pays $30
• Prop Make Cut: Ancer -136, 3.4%, $34 pays $25
• 14 wagers, $427 bet, Current bankroll $573

I’m looking forward to seeing how high we can get this initial $1000 bankroll to grow. If there are any suggestions about a better way to set this up please feel free to reach out in the comment section or any of the social media handles. I’m still getting used to the formatting for all of this. Good luck this week!