The Death Penalty and Murder Rates in the United States

Tori Schwausch
7 min readJul 27, 2020

By Tori Schwausch

Image 1. Death Penalty Murder Rates and Non-Death Penalty Murder Rates. FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports 1995–2018.

The death penalty in the United States has always been a topic of close contention. The question of whether or not it should be a valid form of capital punishment is one that has long been debated. Everyone seems to have their own opinion on the subject and their own reasons for being either pro or anti death penalty. Before we determine if the death penalty actually deters murder rates — we must first jump the hurdle of the “fairness” argument.

Some of those in support of the death penalty say that death as a means of capital punishment is fair; an eye for an eye. More than half of those who responded in favor of the death penalty in a 2003 Gallup poll said that revenge was one of their main reasons for supporting the punishment (Jones, 2003). Yet now, almost two decades later, more American citizens for the first time ever, are favoring life sentences over the death penalty as a way for punishing those who commit murder (Jones, 2019). There is no data or research that proves that the death penalty is “fair,” because in reality, a lot of the beliefs (whether it is fair or not) about killing someone else as punishment for murdering another person is strictly subjective — it is an opinion. The focus of this research will not say whether or not the death penalty is acceptable because of the “fairness” claim. Instead, this research will seek to understand if the death penalty is successful as a deterrent and if it has an impact or lowers the murder rates. In doing so, we will be comparing the murder rates in states that the death penalty both is and is not a form of capital punishment.

When looking at the overall murder rates in states both with and without the death penalty, it is important to identify which states currently do or do not have the death penalty as punishment. As of 2020, there are 28 states that have the death penalty in place, three of which (California, Oregon, and Pennsylvania) have a gubernatorial moratorium (meaning the governor’s office suspended a decision made by a higher court) on executions (Aviram, 2019). The remaining 22 states, currently do not use the death penalty whatsoever. (Death Penalty Information Center, 2020).

Image 2. States With and Without the Death Penalty- 2020. Death Penalty Information Center. 2020.

To note, some states have the death penalty on the books but have not carried out an execution in many years (see image 3, Death Penalty Information Center, 2020).

Image 3. States With No Death Penalty or With No Executions in 5 Years. 2020. Death Penalty Information Center.

Like mentioned previously, the scope of this project has to do with the death penalty as a deterrent, and if it impacts murder rates in the U.S.. If a state has a mandate saying they can use the death penalty as capital punishment (and let’s say they have not executed someone in years), it should, for the purpose of this research, carry the same weight as a state that has the death penalty and continuously carries out executions of death row inmates because in both scenarios, there is always the possibility that they will end up on death row and possibly be executed.It should be noted, too, that Amnesty International, while writing of the death penalty and deterrence that-

The threat of execution at some future date is unlikely to enter the minds of those acting under the influence of drugs and/or alcohol, those who are in the grip of fear or rage, those who are panicking while committing another crime (such as a robbery), or those who suffer from mental illness or mental retardation and do not fully understand the gravity of their crime (Amnesty International, Accessed 2020).

Those who are willing to commit crimes will seem to do so anyways, regardless of if their state has not executed a death row inmate. Therefore, that aspect of the death penalty should not be focused on too heavily in this research.

That being said, we will be looking at the murder rates in both non-death penalty states, and death penalty states overall (you can see the break down of murder rates by state here). When looking at the data presented by the Death Penalty Information Center’s, “Murder Rate of Death Penalty States Compared to Non-Death Penalty States (Death Penalty Information Center, 2018), we can see that the overall murder rate in the U.S. is lower in states that do not have the death penalty as a form of capital punishment.

Image 4. Death Penalty Murder Rates and Non-Death Penalty Murder Rates. FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports 1995–2018. *Murder rates calculated by dividing the total number of murders by the total population in death penalty and non-death penalty states and multiplying that by 100,00

The data has shown that since 1995, murder rates in states that have the death penalty on the books are significantly and consistently higher than those states that don’t use the death penalty. I have a hard time finding this data in support of the argument that the death penalty is successful in deterring murder in the U.S. If anything, the data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) has shown that there is a probability of the presence of a possible “brutalization effect.” This effect relates to an agreement among some criminology experts that the death penalty leads to a higher level of murders (Radelet et. al, 2009). In his academic journal, “The Brutalization Effect: Execution Publicity and the Incidence of Homicide in South Carolina,” David R. King expresses that the brutalization effect may only be present if the death penalty state repeatedly uses the death penalty and talks about the executions in consecutive months (King, 1978).

Image 5. “Recent Developments: Do Executions Lower Homicide Rates?: The Views of Leading Criminologists.” The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology (1973-), vol. 99, no. 2, 2009, pp. 489–508.

In addition to the UCR, in the spring 2009 issue of the Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, a survey of criminologists was conducted by Michael L. Radelet & Traci L. Lacock surrounding the opinion of the death penalty and deterrence. In their findings, Radlet et. al, found that 88.2% of respondents do not believe that the death penalty deters murder (Radlet et. al, 2009).

Analysis from experts aside, the murder rate data in states with and without the death penalty alone prove it would be inaccurate to say the death penalty is successful in deterring murders in the U.S.. If it were to be that the death penalty was a successful as a deterrent, we would expect to see lower murder rates in states that execute inmates, but alas, we do not.

The numbers and data do not lie. There is empirical evidence (that we have seen above) that disproves the idea that the death penalty is successful in deterring murder, and that murder rates are in fact lower in states without the death penalty. What does this mean for policy makers and those involved in the public policy process; will decision-makers actually listen? With the death penalty being argued on moral and ethical grounds (fairness/ unfairness, etc), it seems there will be difficulty getting people to hear the actual facts as opposed to their personal feelings or beliefs. This hardens the line and widens the gap between those in opposition. By having the death penalty as a moral issue, it leaves little room for people to take a pragmatic approach on the subject. Ultimately, the mere presence of the death penalty debate will no doubt further divert the attention of those in Congress and state legislators from creating essential criminal justice reform and developing crime problem solutions (Amnesty International, Accessed 2020).

Works Cited

  1. DPIC Study Finds No Evidence that Death Penalty Deters Murder or Protects Police.” Death Penalty Information Center. 2019. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/news/new-podcast-dpic-study-finds-no-evidence-that-death-penalty-deters-murder-or-protects-police
  2. Uniform Crime Reporting Publications.” Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reporting. 1990–2018. https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/ucr/publications
  3. “Murder Rate of Death Penalty States Compared to Non-Death Penalty States.” Death Penalty Information Center. 2018. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/murder-rates/murder-rate-of-death-penalty-states-compared-to-non-death-penalty-states
  4. “Murder Rates by State.” Death Penalty Information Center. Accessed 20 July 2020. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/murder-rates/murder-rates-by-state
  5. “States With No Recent Executions.” Death Penalty Information Center. 2020. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/executions-overview/states-with-no-recent-executions
  6. “States With and Without the Death Penalty: State by State.” Death Penalty Information Center. 2020. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/state-and-federal-info/state-by-state
  7. “Gallup Poll- For First Time, Majority of Americans Life Sentence to Capital Punishment.” Death Penalty Information Center. 2019. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/news/gallup-poll-for-first-time-majority-of-americans-prefer-life-sentence-to-capital-punishment
  8. Jones, Jeffrey. “Understanding Americans’ Support for the Death Penalty.” Gallup. 2003. https://news.gallup.com/poll/8557/understanding-americans-support-death-penalty.aspx
  9. Jones, Jeffrey. “Americans Now Support Life in Prison Over Death Penalty.” Gallup. 2019. https://news.gallup.com/poll/268514/americans-support-life-prison-death-penalty.aspx
  10. Aviram, Hadar. “Death penalty moratorium in California — and what it means for the state and for the nation.” The Conversation. 2019. https://theconversation.com/death-penalty-moratorium-in-california-what-it-means-for-the-state-and-for-the-nation-113634
  11. The History of the Death Penalty: A Timeline.” Death Penalty Information Center. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/stories/history-of-the-death-penalty-timeline
  12. “The Death Penalty and Deterrence.” Amnesty International. Accessed 20 July 2020. https://www.amnestyusa.org/issues/death-penalty/death-penalty-facts/the-death-penalty-and-deterrence/
  13. “A Clear Scientific Consensus that the Death Penalty Does Not Deter.” Amnesty International. Accessed 20 July 2020. https://www.amnestyusa.org/a-clear-scientific-consensus-that-the-death-penalty-does-not-deter/
  14. King, David R. “The Brutalization Effect: Execution Publicity and the Incidence of Homicide in South Carolina.” Social Forces, vol. 57, no. 2, 1978, pp. 683–687. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/2577690. Accessed 20 July 2020.
  15. Radelet, Michael L., and Traci L. Lacock. “Recent Developments: Do Executions Lower Homicide Rates?: The Views of Leading Criminologists.” The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology (1973-), vol. 99, no. 2, 2009, pp. 489–508. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/20685045. Accessed 20 July 2020.

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