How Nigeria Will Play Out

Nigeria finally makes sense! It’s a trinity.

There are three Nigerias in one: Unitary State of Nigeria, Federal States of Nigeria and Federal Republic of Nigeria. Here's how to identify each and strategies for dealing.

Whenever the reward is much greater than the value exchanged for it, that is the Unitary State of Nigeria (USN). It's marked by concentrated political power and essentially shares petro-dollars. Life is easy once you become a recipient of her patronage.

While its critical to deeply understand how USN operates, don't build anything that is meant to last on it. USN is unsustainable, the reason is simple: it's anti-majority and whatever happens to petrol is the fate of USN.

USN is hopeless. Nothing can save her. Enjoy while it lasts or endure as necessary. Futility will be the result of attempts to rescue, reform or restructure her. Don't even try. Leave her alone, her demise is on the horizon.

One more thing, USN is immoral, illegal and just plain wrong.

Federal States of Nigeria (FSN) is the entity anticipated by the 1999 constitution though usurped by USN. So FSN is legal. FSN decentralises political power among the constituent states and limits the spheres of authority granted to the central government.

FSN vests power in government, not people. This is more attuned to reality, organic and less arbitrary. So structures such as businesses, communities and thought systems that flow from this base are likely to survive and endure.

The way to operate FSN, for example, is to buy lands from and align practices with states. This means simultaneously tolerating USN encroachment and limiting her excesses. This means long-term investments that factors out petro-dollars in market purchasing power.

Nothing needs to be done to facilitate the emergence of FSN. It's already there in the Constitution, it's simply waiting for the demise of USN to be activated and operational.

Federal Republic of Nigeria (FRN) is our future, our destination. It's people-focussed, pro-majority and purposeful governance. FRN will unleash our creative forces and provide leadership to Africa. She will project our race in the international arenas of culture, knowledge and products.

Engaging FRN in the present is to disconnect from all but the most basic necessities of the current government. It is to institute an education system, for example, that teaches chemistry in local languages or innovating building materials so price competitive and specially adjusted to our local climate.

The activation of FRN will not automatically follow FSN. It will entail visioning and political reform of FSN. It will require complete detoxification from USN. It will take effort, persuasion and civic education. It will demand sacrifice, commitment and unceasing vigilance.

But it will be worth it.

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