Most careers can’t be wrong 40% of the time. Mine can (and will).
Distinguishing between when terrible price action is an opportunity or when the stock decline is telling us something has really changed is incredibly difficult. We only know which with the benefit of hindsight.
Nobody gets this right all the time.
Research. Rules, Experience. Intuition. Gut. Luck. All play a part.
An oral surgeon must get every root canal right. As traders, this just isn’t possible.
This is one of toughest parts of trading. Being beat up sometimes and wrong is the norm.
Most jobs can’t be wrong 40% of the time
Your favorite restaurant cannot get the dish wrong 40% of the time and stay in business.
FedEx can’t not deliver the next day 1/3 of the time.
Tires can’t fail 30% of the time.
Our internet can’t go out or phone not work 50% of the time.
Steph Curry misses 50–60% of his 3 pointers. Still best ever.
Mike Trout and Manny Machado fail to get on base 55% of the time. Yet they are superstars.
Artists won’t have a top 10 song over and over. They just need a few hits.
It’s so important to understand this stuff psychologically and learn what to reasonably expect. And still know and have hope that you can still reach the outcomes you want after string of losses, dumb mistakes, frustrating weeks.
If you are a perfectionist. You will never make it.
We ALL buy too late. Sell to early. Sell to late. It’s insanity when we look back in hindsight. How we could have done so much better.
And yet, it is still the best career I can ever imagine.
Trade in the Zone